Texas Winter 2018-2019

[JDawg512]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/KrSZ31k/Screen-Shot-2019-02-08-at-9-22-49-PM.png [/url]

New WWA. Found it surprising though... I think it's very precautionary...

Yea I honestly don't see the point for the advisory to cover Austin. Looks like the precipitation has come to an end and the line to the west is going to miss us.

It was fun to see on and off sleet throughout the day but I'm not expecting much of anything overnight.

[Brent]

We really need you all in NTx to cash in now. I've been in your shoes many times. It sucks. I know the word patience means cra# right now lol Hang in there!

This local winter event today brought my 2018/2019 winter rating from 0.1/10 to 4/10.

patience is so hard when for the 2nd year in a row its missing in every direction

its also hard when we've been waiting for this great pattern for so long now and its still the winter of almost

[Cpv17]

Looks like a pretty good cool down at the end of the Euro with a decent amount of snow in Oklahoma.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Does TxDOT not follow the forecasts? Why put stuff down before even a watch or advisory?

Because TxDot has got nailed hard before with surprise storms. I know people that are new to the city have trouble believing it but there have been years not too long ago that we had multiple snow/ice events(it will happen again btw) TxDot was fried during the super bowl and that event was long term for Texas. Many other times as well that resulted in deadly accidents etc. I’m glad they prepare now because that didn’t used to be the case quite as much.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/v2/15/03 ... d38a7c.jpg

Just a reminder, this is a March 5th photo at dfw airport in 2015

[Portastorm]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/KrSZ31k/Screen-Shot-2019-02-08-at-9-22-49-PM.png [/url]

New WWA. Found it surprising though... I think it's very precautionary...

Yea I honestly don't see the point for the advisory to cover Austin. Looks like the precipitation has come to an end and the line to the west is going to miss us.

It was fun to see on and off sleet throughout the day but I'm not expecting much of anything overnight.

I think the advisory was issued out of an abundance of caution. We had reports of icing on some elevated roads/bridges in the far NW part of Travis County and there were (and still are this morning) icing on bridges in Williamson County. There was still some sleet mixed in with rain last night so I believe NWS wanted to issue the advisory to caution the public about driving conditions. Winter Weather Advisories, per definition, are issued when winter weather is thought to have a societal impact of some sort.

[bubba hotep]

Sad really we cant get one event and they get storm after storm

Yea, pretty crazy pattern that we are stuck in, they will probably see record snowfall totals. The SE ridge is holding strong and we will probably stay in the limbo land but I think we will see things turn in our favor around the 20th +/-

Bubba, when do you think the models may pick up on the mjo movement? This is new territory that we haven't seen in a long time. More of a typical niño with coupling between ocean and atmosphere it looks like

It's hard to say, we tend to oversimplify the MJO and I am certainly guilty of that on this board. MJO influences vary by ENSO phase, PNA structure, HBL, etc. The current pattern that we are in looks to be pretty stable with a raging STJ and stubborn SE ridge. Both the GEFS and Euro EPS retract the Pacific jet over the next few days and then start to extend it but the extension is uncertain and both the MJO and EAMT will play a role in that. The EPS is slower to change the pattern over N. America beyond D10 and the cold just kind of bleeds east while the GEFS is more aggressive.

One of the issues with the models & the MJO recently has been the strong RW interactions.



The MJO (black line) was slowed in early Feb as it interacted with a strong RW (green line) that happened while we were in -PNA, which can be cold NW & warm SE during MJO P6 (while a +PNA P6 MJO would be warmer NW). The MJO will also be interacting with the low frequency background state in the coming days and will enhance convection. All that said, I think we will see some better chances for winter wx across TX around the 20th +/- as we see the Pacific jet extend.

[CentralTxAggie]

thundersleet visited us around 0630 here just north of Canyon Lake. precip has stopped but been without power goin on 3 hours now

[spencer817]

We really need you all in NTx to cash in now. I've been in your shoes many times. It sucks. I know the word patience means cra# right now lol Hang in there!

This local winter event today brought my 2018/2019 winter rating from 0.1/10 to 4/10.

patience is so hard when for the 2nd year in a row its missing in every direction

its also hard when we've been waiting for this great pattern for so long now and its still the winter of almost

I think it's also the fact that NTX has expectations compared to Austin. It's not like Austin has plenty if years with higher totals. This is also my last year in DFW, so its extra sad to not see anything.

[dhweather]

If a 384 ever verifies, its probably this one, snow in Mexico, Texas dry.

[BrokenGlass]

And now that we are safely above freezing in DFW, here comes the rain.


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[vbhoutex]

If a 384 ever verifies, its probably this one, snow in Mexico, Texas dry.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019020912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

LOL!! Sometimes those Mexico disturbances are SE TX only hope. Of course the high would have to either strengthen or stay stationary for our thundersleetsnow dreams to come true.

[gpsnowman]

If a 384 ever verifies, its probably this one, snow in Mexico, Texas dry.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019020912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

Well the maps at 384 with the bullseye on Dallas never verify so I consider this a positive. Road trip to Mexico anyone?

[Ntxw]

And now that we are safely above freezing in DFW, here comes the rain.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190209/928e10ff22c8844960d05ca4c491ab88.jpg


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Ultimate troll job mother nature is pulling on us.

[funster]

Today and tomorrow look like they will be great days for cold rain aficionados. The HRRR keeps the light cold rain coming.

[bubba hotep]

Amazing 34F and rain... If this impulse could have arrived 24 hours earlier lol

[gpsnowman]

Amazing 34F and rain... If this impulse could have arrived 24 hours earlier lol

I've been out and about all day and some of the rain pockets were moderate at times, not just light rain. What could have been........

[DonWrk]

Amazing 34F and rain... If this impulse could have arrived 24 hours earlier lol

I swear, once the cold rain trend that started late fall/early winter that's what I pretty much planned on this entire winter time frame. The trend started early and I've never got my hopes up much. Cold rain every dang time.

[Brent]

I'm so over this winter nothing but cruel jokes

[Cerlin]

Hoping next year’s pattern whatever it shall be is more cemented that way I know what i’m getting into