Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

Yeah I'm just going to say no to this but just seeing it on a model in Texas is crazy enough (yes those are windchills). Thankfully a big outlier

[HockeyTx82]

Yeah I'm just going to say no to this but just seeing it on a model in Texas is crazy enough (yes those are windchills)

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/apparent_temperature_f/1736899200/1737633600-KCoNUwOVanA.png

Looks like perfect bike riding weather to me

[Ntxw]

CMC lost its marbles with the cold

This 500mb look is rare (Now on all 3 Major Globals), could go to the extreme with fresh snow cover

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/mslp/1736899200/1737471600-8TqMhNruUuE.png

POW's -30F+ below normal.

[HockeyTx82]

CMC lost its marbles with the cold

This 500mb look is rare (Now on all 3 Major Globals), could go to the extreme with fresh snow cover

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/mslp/1736899200/1737471600-8TqMhNruUuE.png

POW's -30F+ below normal.

https://i.imgur.com/1EUguBg.png

Okay for some of these model runs at what point will the media actually start telling people, hey this could have potential to get very cold.

I know we sometimes like to look at some outputs that show extremes, but it seems that there's a consensus growing that this could genuinely be a pretty cold shot of air headed our way, right?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yeah I'm just going to say no to this but just seeing it on a model in Texas is crazy enough (yes those are windchills). Thankfully a big outlier

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/apparent_temperature_f/1736899200/1737633600-KCoNUwOVanA.png

Please let this come true. I will film myself running in it to show that Wxman 57 is a pansy for the cold.

[Ntxw]

This 500mb look is rare (Now on all 3 Major Globals), could go to the extreme with fresh snow cover

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/mslp/1736899200/1737471600-8TqMhNruUuE.png

POW's -30F+ below normal.

https://i.imgur.com/1EUguBg.png

Okay for some of these model runs at what point will the media actually start telling people, hey this could have potential to get very cold.

I know we sometimes like to look at some outputs that show extremes, but it seems that there's a consensus growing that this could genuinely be a pretty cold shot of air headed our way, right?

It's going to get pretty cold, coldest of the season to date if not this winter. Expect lows at least in the teens for us. It will be colder if there is snow/ice on the ground. And there is a good possibility the dense, cold air mass sitting in the high plains will not simply slide eastward, a good chunk may be faster, colder than currently progged by some of the warmer guidance.

[HockeyTx82]

Yeah I'm just going to say no to this but just seeing it on a model in Texas is crazy enough (yes those are windchills). Thankfully a big outlier

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/apparent_temperature_f/1736899200/1737633600-KCoNUwOVanA.png

Please let this come true. I will film myself running in it to show that Wxman 57 is a pansy for the cold.

I have a recorded run on my Samsung watch for when it was in the single digits and I ran a 5k up here just for fun as my daily run.

I don't remember the date but I had two pairs of socks and three layers and I managed to stay warm.

I gave my wife the route ahead of time and said if I don't come back in 25 minutes or less please come look for me because I might be frozen.

#icybeard

[Brent]

Actually as terrible as last winter was we did have a high of 6 and low of -3 last year when it snowed one day

That's what I'm wondering if we can get that cold again during the daytime. So far it's closer to low 20s for a high

[mmmmsnouts]

Yeah I'm just going to say no to this but just seeing it on a model in Texas is crazy enough (yes those are windchills). Thankfully a big outlier

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/apparent_temperature_f/1736899200/1737633600-KCoNUwOVanA.png

Please let this come true. I will film myself running in it to show that Wxman 57 is a pansy for the cold.

I have a recorded run on my Samsung watch for when it was in the single digits and I ran a 5k up here just for fun as my daily run.

I don't remember the date but I had two pairs of socks and three layers and I managed to stay warm.

I gave my wife the route ahead of time and said if I don't come back in 25 minutes or less please come look for me because I might be frozen.

#icybeard

You guys are braver than me. My coldest run was in the low 20s during that cold snap at Christmas 2022. But my time was surprisingly good. I absolutely fold once it gets above 60.

[SnowintheFalls]

The CMC now looks like the GFS. Very nice trends tonight with both models showing a big snowstorm/ice storm. Now lets see if the Euro continues the trend.

https://i.ibb.co/b7tMKgJ/prateptype-imp-us-sc-11.png

https://i.ibb.co/jG96rHB/prateptype-imp-us-sc-12.png

Unfortunately, your images are not showing up for some reason.

[Stratton23]

Brutal ice storm on the 00z euro

[869MB]

Brutal ice storm on the 00z euro

To add clarification he’s mainly referring to the Houston Metro area along the I-10 corridor

[AubreyStorm]

CMC lost its marbles with the cold

This 500mb look is rare (Now on all 3 Major Globals), could go to the extreme with fresh snow cover

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/mslp/1736899200/1737471600-8TqMhNruUuE.png

POW's -30F+ below normal.

https://i.imgur.com/1EUguBg.png

The Day After Tomorrow….

[Ntxw]

Brutal ice storm on the 00z euro

It's 2 separate events, first in central and SE Texas with an ice storm, some snow on the northern fringes, then second as another feature comes out later in the week for west and north Texas. Quite frankly at best we can say cold is coming, and there's enough noise to say potentially some wintry precip/winter storm but it's several different solutions right now in that department.

[cheezyWXguy]

While the potential prospects of next week are interesting, the models have exhibited a large degree of variability today and I think we have a ways to go before a definitive scenario is nailed down. With the considerable differences in 500mb pattern being shown on each run of each model, I think the only thing thats fairly clear is that we will likely see the coldest temps of the season next week. Who gets frozen precip, what type, and how much seems like a question that probably won't have a confident answer until this weekend IMO.

[Throckmorton]

The ECMWF model's 00Z forecast for Austin Camp Mabry is warmer than its previous 12Z forecast. The precipitation there on Jan. 20–21 should be snow, not freezing rain.

[TropicalTundra]

Virga on radar north of Lubbock?

[fendie]

Virga on radar north of Lubbock?

[Tammie]

NWS Fort Worth see’s what we see….

“.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night Onward/

A warming trend will continue through the end of the work week as
warm air advection persists across the region. Friday highs will
range from around 60 near Paris to the lower 70s across the
western-most locations, or 5 to 15 degrees above normal for mid
January. A pattern change this weekend will bring an end to the
warming trend, however, with a shift back to well-below normal
temperatures for the rest of the period.

An impressive longwave trough comprised of multiple shortwaves
will deepen across North America this weekend, forcing the next
southward surge of arctic air through the Plains. The front will
push through North and Central Texas Friday night, continuing
through the rest of the state and well out into the Gulf on
Saturday. There will be a slight chance of rain showers along the
front, but the more significant impact will be gusty north winds
and an abrupt drop in temperature. Saturday`s highs should still
reach the 40s and 50s, but temperatures will plummet overnight
with lows in the teens and 20s by daybreak Sunday. North winds of
10 to 20 MPH will produce dangerous wind chills in the teens and
single digits during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday.

The sun will do its best to warm the surface on Sunday, but cold
air advection and the arctic nature of the airmass will largely
offset insolation, keeping afternoon highs generally in the 30s
(perhaps a few northwest counties topping in the upper 20s).
Temperatures will then fall steadily after sunset, leading to
another brutal night with Monday morning lows in the teens to
lower 20s. Persistent north winds will drop wind chills into the
single digits, which will likely warrant a Cold Weather Advisory
for low wind chill when the time comes. A few counties may even
approach "Extreme Cold" Warning criteria and we will assess that
over the weekend.

Up to this point, conditions are expected to remain dry, with
dangerous cold remaining the sole concern through most of the
holiday weekend. Things begin to get interesting, however, later
in the day on MLK Day as a positive tilt shortwave rotates around
the southwest flank of the longwave trough. First, the positioning
of the shortwave over the Desert Southwest will draw a second
surge of arctic air south through the Plains, reinforcing the
bitter cold airmass already in place. Secondly, all operational
models agree on strengthening isentropic upglide as the shortwave
makes its approach from the west. The result will likely be a
round of winter precipitation somewhere across the region during
the Monday night to Tuesday night time frame.

At this point, model guidance continues to advertise varying
probabilities of all winter precip types from Texas eastward
through the Gulf Coast region (with the heaviest focus across the
Gulf Coast at this time). Confidence in exact locations,
precipitation types, and amounts remains quite low at this time.
That being said, probabilities have increased enough to introduce
some low chances of snow around the day 6-7 period, which will be
added with this forecast package (along with neighboring offices).
Will know more and be able to pin more details down later in the
week and over the weekend.

Precipitation will move off to the east on Wednesday, but
temperatures will likely remain well below normal for the rest of
next week. With the upper level pattern remaining unsettled,
additional opportunities for winter precipitation may arrive
towards the end of next week depending on how much of the cold
arctic air remains. Will take a closer look at that in the in the
coming days.”

30

[Ntxw]

DFW airport snuck in another freeze this morning to make it 11 to date for the month.