Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[BigB0882]

Miniature little icicles melting from the house this morning. Ice Storm 2015. Never forget.

[BigB0882]

I find the forecast for next week interesting. Tuesday night it shows a low of 33 with "rain developing late" Those temps may continue to come in colder if the Euro is right. Of course, we are a week away but its not 10+ days out like usual. I will be keeping an eye on it.

[Hammy]

Winder, GA had a half inch of ice accumulation, broken trees everywhere, some large and some uprooted, and power was out for about 18 hours

[northjaxpro]

Current temperatures. Extremely cold for the Eastern CONUS and you can really see the outline of the deep upper level trough.

[hurricanehunter69]

A few interesting possibilities comin down the pike.....? This morning's 00Z run at 120 hours http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false The latest 18Z at 114 hours http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false Last nights 18Z run at 216 hours http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false This mornings 00Z run at 204 hours http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[Tstormwatcher]

I have learned to never trust a model more than 7 days out because more than that they will change from run to run.

Tonight is supposed to be our coldest night in decades. Low is forecast at 8 to 10. It actually got 5 degrees warmer today than forecasted so we will see on the low. Currently at 7:40pm it is 22 with a dew point of 1.

[hurricanehunter69]

I have learned to never trust a model more than 7 days out because more than that they will change from run to run.

Tonight is supposed to be our coldest night in decades. Low is forecast at 8 to 10. It actually got 5 degrees warmer today than forecasted so we will see on the low. Currently at 7:40pm it is 22 with a dew point of 1.

You're absolutely right! It is very difficult and rare for us to get a winter storm all the way down to the coast! But the models can and do change in our favor sometimes too.

[BigB0882]

Oh, southeast Louisiana is going to miss out by a few degrees again. You don't say. It does look quite cool starting Monday through the whole work week. Not quite the warm turnaround I was expecting.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Give it a few more runs and days BigB it will change. Remember just last weekend we were supposed to barely get above freezing for the highs. Then earlier this week another shot of cold with lows near 20. Saw two minimal freezes all week

[BigB0882]

Give it a few more runs and days BigB it will change. Remember just last weekend we were supposed to barely get above freezing for the highs. Then earlier this week another shot of cold with lows near 20. Saw two minimal freezes all week

I have seen you mention that but I must have missed those forecasts. Was this an NWS forecast or just a 10 day GFS forecast? If the latter, then shame on you for even buying into it.

[SeGaBob]

It got down to 18 here this morning...

[northjaxpro]

Got down to 23.3 degrees at my locale, the coldest temp reading this winter season, which is a degree colder than what the NWS Jax office reported as the official low of 24 degrees. The record low for the date here was smashed by a mile lol...

I assume in your above post SeGaBob that is the coldest reading you have seen this winter there in Statesboro, right?

[SeGaBob]

It's a tie as far as I know.
It got down to 18 one other time last month. (It might have been November, I can't quite remember)

[BigB0882]

It looks like those of us in SouthEast Louisiana and points East (at least along the coast) are going to miss out on not one, not two but three events over the course of the next 2 weeks. 2 of those are within quite close time frame and seem legit. I hate when you miss out by 100 miles or so. Just not fair.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yep. We are going to be stuck in the 30's and 40's with rain. Even lake Charles might get in on some of the action. Just find some cmc runs and use your imagination

[JSDS]

The latest NWS discussion has the freezing rain line from Maringouin to Baker to Greensburg Monday night/early Tuesday, so it is edging closer. Something to watch...

[timmeister]

No snow in Hattiesburg , but it looks like Jackson and Vicksburg, MS and north of that line will get some snow Wednesday.

[BigB0882]

Wednesday is looking to be over an inch of QPF with temps in mid to upper 30s. Seriously? That is so depressing.

[LaBreeze]

Wednesday is looking to be over an inch of QPF with temps in mid to upper 30s. Seriously? That is so depressing.

Just wondering - what is QPF? I'm not that up on terminology. Thanks in advance.

[BigB0882]

Basically how much precipitation is going to fall. So, in Louisiana QPF is almost always in the form of rain. But an inch of liquid would be a ton if it was freezing rain and it would be unheard of for our area if it was all snow. I just hate that we have this great robust coastal Low forecast to move through and temps are so close. Although who really wants an ice storm with those kinds of totals? Power would go out everywhere. If it isn't going to snow (and 850 temps don't support it, not even close) then we might as well get rain, I suppose. Just not very exciting and a cold rain is so miserable.