Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Haris]

I get the cynicism. This stuff is so rare here so it makes sense that a drier model kinda seems more realistic to us. My mind for example this morning made the NAM keeping bugging me and get to me compared to the other plethora of snowier models. It happens. Just trust the process, pray. May we all get hammered.

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS Mean Snowfall trended north again . . .

11-13 inches in Central Oklahoma
6-13 inches in DFW

NOTE: 10:1 Ratio Snowfall, Oklahoma ranges from 15:1 Ratios to 25:1 Ratios
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_meansnacc_17479d96e05cd35ab72.png

Ensemble Snow totals
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_snens_168ca16caba240768c2.png

Ok so we have people posting and talking dry slot then you post these. What's going on? What do we believe? Any pro mets that would mind explaining please, and thank you ahead of time.

There has been an increasing trend on the models showing a dry slot over DFW & that is making DFW snow lovers worried because it made the Northern Side of DFW not to have any snow earlier this year, & they are worried that the DFW dry slot will do it again . . .

[Yukon Cornelius]

Sun popped out here for a minute! I about had a coronary!! Saw my snow chances melt away before it even got here!!
Totally kidding about the coronary but, was wondering what a good weather station for the backyard would be?

I have an Ambient Weather WS-2000 and love it. It’s extremely accurate.

I love my Ambient 1400. Awesome to view data from anywhere.

That’s the best feature of these stations is being able to view your current outside and inside data from anywhere.

[Brent]

12z GEFS Mean Snowfall trended north again . . .

11-13 inches in Central Oklahoma
6-13 inches in DFW

NOTE: 10:1 Ratio Snowfall, Oklahoma ranges from 15:1 Ratios to 25:1 Ratios
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_meansnacc_17479d96e05cd35ab72.png

Ensemble Snow totals
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_snens_168ca16caba240768c2.png

Ok so we have people posting and talking dry slot then you post these. What's going on? What do we believe? Any pro mets that would mind explaining please, and thank you ahead of time.

There has been an increasing trend on the models showing a dry slot over DFW & that is making DFW snow lovers worried because it made the Northern Side of DFW not to have any snow earlier this year, & they are worried that the DFW dry slot will do it again . . .

true but then you have the WPC with a chance at 8 inches right over Dallas the only area around here

[HockeyTx82]

12z GEFS Mean Snowfall trended north again . . .

11-13 inches in Central Oklahoma
6-13 inches in DFW

NOTE: 10:1 Ratio Snowfall, Oklahoma ranges from 15:1 Ratios to 25:1 Ratios
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_meansnacc_17479d96e05cd35ab72.png

Ensemble Snow totals
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_snens_168ca16caba240768c2.png

Ok so we have people posting and talking dry slot then you post these. What's going on? What do we believe? Any pro mets that would mind explaining please, and thank you ahead of time.

There has been an increasing trend on the models showing a dry slot over DFW & that is making DFW snow lovers worried because it made the Northern Side of DFW not to have any snow earlier this year, & they are worried that the DFW dry slot will do it again . . .

I understand that, just what are you posting specifically. What is that map?

[Iceresistance]

Ok so we have people posting and talking dry slot then you post these. What's going on? What do we believe? Any pro mets that would mind explaining please, and thank you ahead of time.

There has been an increasing trend on the models showing a dry slot over DFW & that is making DFW snow lovers worried because it made the Northern Side of DFW not to have any snow earlier this year, & they are worried that the DFW dry slot will do it again . . .

I understand that, just what are you posting specifically. What is that map?

12z GEFS Model from COD Meteorology

[LearnedHat]

I’m in Keller. I have cheered for some storms over the last decade or so (got 10-12 inches one day and overnight somewhere in there - when local weather was predicting 2”) but this time I want just enough snow to insulate ground (trees and shrub roots) from the 0 degree cold. I dont want a week of being shut in, limbs breaking, pipes bursting, cars crashing, economy slowing, etc.

[rwfromkansas]

I’m in Keller. I have cheered for some storms over the last decade or so (got 10-12 inches one day and overnight somewhere in there - when local weather was predicting 2”) but this time I want just enough snow to insulate ground (trees and shrub roots) from the 0 degree cold. I dont want a week of being shut in, limbs breaking, pipes bursting, cars crashing, economy slowing, etc.

I work for Keller ISD. I want enough they close school for a few days for safety. I don’t think they would close for an inch or two and there would still be accidents. But, get what you are saying.

[Ntxw]

Ok so we have people posting and talking dry slot then you post these. What's going on? What do we believe? Any pro mets that would mind explaining please, and thank you ahead of time.

There has been an increasing trend on the models showing a dry slot over DFW & that is making DFW snow lovers worried because it made the Northern Side of DFW not to have any snow earlier this year, & they are worried that the DFW dry slot will do it again . . .

I understand that, just what are you posting specifically. What is that map?

It is a GEFS (ensembles) mean/average between the two systems.

[TropicalTundra]

[Ntxw]

WPC Prob >8" mocks the dry slot! Also, the 12z HREF continues to support the 4 - 6" area wide snowfall for a large portion of Texas, so I wouldn't expect many changes in the afternoon packages, unless some offices up totals based ratio and/or not losing as much qpf to freezing rain/sleet.

https://i.ibb.co/sv8B0Wz/8in72-Prob.png

What an interesting area for that zone

That zone is going to be effected by an early expanding area of precip that some guidance feature a mix. However soundings don't support the mix, if it is all snow and we are hovering in low 20s it will be a fast 1-3" of snow before the main band arrives and the whole area is blanketed before noon.

There is also a slight chance the precip in the south expands far enough north to clip the same areas. The reasons for the "drier slots" can also be a reason for enhanced totals for a specific location.

[Brent]

WPC Prob >8" mocks the dry slot! Also, the 12z HREF continues to support the 4 - 6" area wide snowfall for a large portion of Texas, so I wouldn't expect many changes in the afternoon packages, unless some offices up totals based ratio and/or not losing as much qpf to freezing rain/sleet.

https://i.ibb.co/sv8B0Wz/8in72-Prob.png

What an interesting area for that zone

That zone is going to be effected by an early expanding area of precip that some guidance feature a mix. However soundings don't support the mix, if it is all snow and we are hovering in low 20s it will be a fast 1-3" of snow before the main band arrives.

There is also a slight chance the precip in the south expands far enough north to clip the same areas. The reasons for the "drier slots" can also be a reason for enhanced totals for a specific location.

Yeah I've become increasingly interested in what happens during the day tomorrow that will say a lot about the metro

[Ntxw]

An example below between short range guidance of how smaller scale convective banding can effect totals, forecasting is always a range. It can shift back and forth, but in reality here we do not need much to get a lot.

[ColdFusion]

The sun is out big time in North Dallas right now. Feels way warmer than just an hour ago.

[HockeyTx82]

The sun is out big time in North Dallas right now. Feels way warmer than just an hour ago.

Yup, just took my last run for next week. Sun came out, I was out the door. Felt refreshing. I'll be stuck to garage workouts with the space heater starting tomorrow.

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX

Coverage and intensity will increase late Sunday afternoon and
Sunday evening as the shortwave advances east through Northwest
Texas. A swath of moderate to occasionally heavy snow is expected
to develop across the Big Country by afternoon and progress east
through the region late afternoon through the overnight hours.
North winds of 15 to 25 MPH will greatly reduce visibilities
during this time, while producing below-zero wind chills. Travel
will become extremely difficult and is strongly discouraged,
especially after dark when significant snow accumulations will be
occurring or have already occurred. This forecast sticks close to
the previous as far as snowfall totals, aside from minor
adjustments per WPC collaboration, with accumulations generally
in the 3 to 7 inch range expected.

Precipitation will exit to the east Monday afternoon and will be
followed by record cold. Snow left on the ground will greatly
suppress the affects of solar radiation, and Monday highs should
remain in the teens (with a few single digits across the
northwest. Monday night temperatures look like a forecast for
Rapid City, SD with readings ranging from 5 below in the northwest
to 5 above across Central Texas.

The break in precipitation will be brief, as the next shortwave
quickly develops upstream and heads for Northwest Texas Tuesday
night. This system is actually expected to slow as it moves across
Texas, bringing additional chances for snow starting Tuesday
night and continuing through Thursday morning. Snowfall totals are
still uncertain at this time, but mid range ensembles show the
possibility of additional, possibly significant, accumulations
before precipitation ends Thursday. Fortunately, it looks like a
shift to zonal flow or weak ridging aloft, combined with a few
days of return flow, will allow for a thaw as we enter next
weekend.

[Ntxw]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX

Coverage and intensity will increase late Sunday afternoon and
Sunday evening as the shortwave advances east through Northwest
Texas. A swath of moderate to occasionally heavy snow is expected
to develop across the Big Country by afternoon and progress east
through the region late afternoon through the overnight hours.
North winds of 15 to 25 MPH will greatly reduce visibilities
during this time, while producing below-zero wind chills. Travel
will become extremely difficult and is strongly discouraged,
especially after dark when significant snow accumulations will be
occurring or have already occurred. This forecast sticks close to
the previous as far as snowfall totals, aside from minor
adjustments per WPC collaboration, with accumulations generally
in the 3 to 7 inch range expected.

Precipitation will exit to the east Monday afternoon and will be
followed by record cold. Snow left on the ground will greatly
suppress the affects of solar radiation, and Monday highs should
remain in the teens (with a few single digits across the
northwest. Monday night temperatures look like a forecast for
Rapid City, SD with readings ranging from 5 below in the northwest
to 5 above across Central Texas.

The break in precipitation will be brief, as the next shortwave
quickly develops upstream and heads for Northwest Texas Tuesday
night. This system is actually expected to slow as it moves across
Texas, bringing additional chances for snow starting Tuesday
night and continuing through Thursday morning. Snowfall totals are
still uncertain at this time, but mid range ensembles show the
possibility of additional, possibly significant, accumulations
before precipitation ends Thursday. Fortunately, it looks like a
shift to zonal flow or weak ridging aloft, combined with a few
days of return flow, will allow for a thaw as we enter next
weekend.

That second system could be a blockbuster. It won't be the fluffy powder snow like tomorrow, probably bigger flakes since it is warming the air mass (still snowing in the 20s is nothing to sleep on) just not as deep cold as the one before and is the backend thaw.

[hriverajr]

https://i.imgur.com/bQgpxRN.jpg

I can see with my own eyes, that report is incorrect.

[Quixotic]

So, what’s the likelihood of thunder snow?

Since we are talking about convective banding and whatnot.

[Ntxw]

So, what’s the likelihood of thunder snow?

Since we are talking about convective banding and whatnot.

I think low with this system. You would need a significant warm region ahead of it to produce those kinds of thunderstorms to move into the cold air mass and around Texas it's just too cold. But who knows maybe the shortwave will be more vigorous .