Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Tyler]

THE GOOD NEWS IS DESPITE THE COOLER AIR...THERE IS STILL NO ARCTIC
AIR SOURCE AND THAT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH LOCK UP THE WINTER OF `06 WITHOUT
ANY HARD FREEZES

That was taken from the NWS in Tampa this morning. I believe cold air is coming but to cool down to normal not 90's like you in Texas are experiencing. Lets just close winter and be done with it no more teasing around.

Oh yeah, I sure hope that will apply to Houston as well

Unfortunatley, no, it doesn't.

That remains to be seen...I wouldn't be so confident we'll have a hard freeze just yet.

With such a highly amplified pattern, I don't see how we could go without one. The PNA ridge is going to skyrocket, and bitterly cold air in Canada will have no choice but to pool into the lower 48...

[gboudx]

jschlitz, i feel your pain. i too don't want to see very cold air, but mostly due to my heating bills. all of my landscaping survived our temps in december when it got down to 10, so i think i'll be fine. well, the begonias died, but that's expected.

[jasons2k]

I know what you mean, I used to be the same way when I lived in Dallas. It's just that we just moved here and I inherited 5 very beautiful, mature Majesty Palms valued at a few hundred $$ each from the previous homeowner. They have a cold tolerance down to about 27 degrees before they are killed. I didn't expect them to have a lifespan for more than 5 or maybe 10 years or so...but man it would just really suck to lose them in the very first winter. I'd like to enjoy them for at least ONE pool season. Plus I have countless hibiscus and other tender palms in my yard that I would lose as well - in all about $10K worth of landscaping I'd have to replace if we ever hit the mid 20's.

Pretty cool. Ya, I would want winter to end as well! Watch out late next week though, we could get into a hard freeze...

I'm most concerned that this will all happen when I am in NYC, and I'm not here to protect my plants. I'll just come home to rotting mush.

On the other hand - I'd really like to see some snow when I'm up there. I just don't want it here...

[jasons2k]

jschlitz, i feel your pain. i too don't want to see very cold air, but mostly due to my heating bills. all of my landscaping survived our temps in december when it got down to 10, so i think i'll be fine. well, the begonias died, but that's expected.

I was up there in January and it looked like the palms up there got it pretty good. There are a lot of them planted along I-35 close to downtown and all of them were freeze burned. They were all CA fan palms with a cold tolerance down into the teens, they have survived for many years without problems, but that cold spell in December really got them.

EDIT - the Sago Palms in my parents neighborhood in Allen were all killed.

[Tyler]

boca, here's your arctic air source, winter isn't over:

[facemane]

A friend of mine taught me a trick to save my sago palms. When a Hard
freeze is expected, I cover the heart at the top with Terry cloth Bath
towels and soak them with the hose. The Ice will keep the heart at a
tolerable 32 degrees. Ice is a very good insulator.

[aggiecutter]

The 12z Ensembles have siberian air coming directly into a broad based trough over the lower 48...

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 20312.html

[Portastorm]

I'm reading reports on another board that the new 12z European coming in shows a massive arctic plunge down the Plains at Day 7.

I don't know how to access the Euro until about 5:30 p.m. central, when it posts on the weather.cod.edu site. If anyone else has access, let us know.

Wow ... am I ever anxious/eager to see that run!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

What other boards do you all look at for cold weather info?

[jasons2k]

Here's a little tidbit,

the latest date for a record low in the teens for Houston is Feb 9th - 17*F in 1933.

[Tyler]

Portastorm, here is the 12z day 7 ECMWF map:


1050MB HIGH!!


That, my friends, is cold stuff right there.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Portastorm, here is the 12z day 7 ECMWF map:


1050MB HIGH!!


That, my friends, is cold stuff right there.

What does that translate into ground temps?

[Portastorm]

<play Darth Vader music from Star Wars>

OH MAN! .... that is an Arctic Outbreak!!!

[Tyler]

You can't really tell exactly the surface temperatures by looking at 850MB temps, but if that airmass blew through here, we'd probably be looking at highs in the 30's and 40's, lows in the 20's, upper teens...

[Brent]

Portastorm, here is the 12z day 7 ECMWF map:


1050MB HIGH!!


That, my friends, is cold stuff right there.

What does that translate into ground temps?

Look at that 1050 mb high over Alberta!!!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

NWS Amarillo on board

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
133 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLES THROUGH EARLY ON
SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR LEADS US TO GO
BELOW GFS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE FIRE DANGER MAY BE ELEVATED ON SUNDAY IF THE FRONT IS
DELAYED A LITTLE LIKE THE NGM AND NAM SUGGEST. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS
VERIFIES THEN WE COULD SEE THE FRONT PASS THROUGH A LITTLE QUICKER
AND A SURFACE LOW MAY MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE
DECREASING OUR WIND THREAT. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE ON THE WINDS.

MODELS ARE AGREEING ON AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE TROUGH UPPER AIR PATTERN
ACROSS THE U.S. MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND. THE PANHANDLES WILL
REMAIN IN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL TEND TO BRING
FAST MOVING DRY SYSTEMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME COLDER CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
AREA...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A COLDER FORECAST BEYOND MID WEEK AS
WELL. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
PLUNGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN WANTING TO SHOW THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPING THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS AND IT JUST HAS NOT HAPPENED...BUT DGUT/DT ONCE AGAIN
SAYS THAT THE COLD AIR IN ALASKA AND NORTHWEST CANADA WILL PROBABLY
RELEASE AND MOVE SOUTH EVENTUALLY.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

What are they seeing in Houston?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
221 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2006

.THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY A TEMP FORECAST AS IT
WILL BE DRY. DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF CHG WITH THE TEMPS TUE-FRI
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. MAY WARMUP A LITTLE
ON THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER DRY COOL FRONT ON FRI/SAT. 33

[Tyler]

COOL front fri/sat!?!? LOL, ok... I guess a 1050MB in NW Canada means nothing to them apparently...

Houston keeping their eyes closed and being warm biased. Its just what they do... You can tell by the short discussion, the person did not put much thought into it.

[richtrav]

Hmm, are you sure those sago palms are dead as in dead DEAD, or just defoliated? They will usually respout new leaves around May if they've been burned. The palms (real ones) also look pretty crispy out from Fort Stockton to El Paso, but they'll be fine, they usually recover from dry cold unless it's horribly extreme.

And I'm not so sure about that trick of soaking a towel with water to save a sago, to keep it at 32F you would have to be continually putting water on it. Once the water turns to ice the temperature will fall close to the ambient air temperature (that's why citrus growers have to leave the sprinklers on all night if they want to save their trees by irrigation). I would think you'd have better luck using something like insulation.

[jasons2k]

Well it is pretty much pointless to put much thought into something that far away (7 days). A lot can happen between now and then.

The eventual trajectory of the system can make a huge difference. During the December outbreak it was 15 at DFW, I think it was 7 in Denton and Mckinney - the coldest I remember seeing in many years. That's a pretty significant outbreak. And yet the coldest we had in Houston was 31 at the airport - it didn't even freeze in the core of the city.