Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ntxw]

12Z GFS rolling in, not looking too good for wintry precip on Wednesday or this weekend.

It hasn't the last two days ... and given the GFS' performance as of late ... I'll take that as a good sign for Texas winter weather lovers. It's been awful in terms of surface temps and has switched back and forth on vort maxes ejecting out of the larger low.

This upper low is strong. The GFS just got a beat-down overnight in NTX. In my opinion this is the best looking 5h low we have seen this winter season. If it goes neutral to negative tilt there is strong dynamics involved. The short range guidance have proven superiority the past few days.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Freezing line progressing into SE TX with light rain and drizzle changing over to freezing light rain and freezing drizzle.

Surface temperatures continue to fall as expected with strong cold air advection processes underway over the region. College Station has fallen to 33 and Caldwell to 32 with Austin going over to 30 and freezing rain. Upstream P-types are all over the place with freezing rain/sleet/snow being reported at numerous sites and road conditions are quickly deteriorating from central TX into the southern portions of north TX and getting very close to our northern counties. Suspect with temperatures at freezing in Caldwell ice accumulation on elevated surfaces over Burleson County is likely underway…thus far bridges and overpasses are ok, but expect them to begin to freeze over in the next few hours and this will likely progress into the College Station/Brazos County area as well as Madison County by noon…or the start time of the freezing rain advisory.

Temperatures are running a few degrees colder than models have been forecasting…or at least the colder air is getting into the area faster. Not sure if this will have any impact on the freezing lines southward progression this afternoon and early evening. For now will not make any changes with the ongoing impacts across the region, but watch trends very closely this afternoon

Note: Warm layer aloft continues to strongly support a freezing rain/freezing drizzle profile. Airport METAR sensors reporting mixed precipitation or unknown precipitation are likely suspect or ice could be forming on the sensors causing error in P-type.

Will update again by mid afternoon.

[dhweather]

:uarrow: But if I remember, a day or two ago it wasn't looking too good for Rockwall to get more than .25 inches of precip out of this current event and Lucy was getting ready to pull the football away for the 61st time.

We've got right at 1/4" at my house, maybe 1/3" , Denton has 1" plus. About what I expected. But our dear friend Lucy has broken fingers and hand because Charlie kicked the football!!!

[JDawg512]

Still at freezing here on the southside. There is a thin coating of ice on my car's windows. Drizzle is continuing to come down.

I'm seeing more radar returns to the west and southwest of the Austin area. it's light but it's definitely increasing In coverage.

[Ntxw]

NAM

[wxman57]

12Z GFS sounding for Wednesday morning in the Dallas area indicates precipitation (snow) developing in the mid levels (16,000-20,000ft) running into a small above-freezing warm nose at around 6000ft as the precip ends. The snow would fall through about 2000 ft of above-freezing temps as the precip ends. Some snowflakes could survive, I suppose.

[iorange55]

Getting another moderate sleet shower here. Work is completed for right now. Ice hiking will be taking place shortly.

I'll be back with photos, unless I slip and break my neck. We'll see what happens.

[wxman57]

We've got right at 1/4" at my house, maybe 1/3" , Denton has 1" plus. About what I expected. But our dear friend Lucy has broken fingers and hand because Charlie kicked the football!!!

Lowering standards? I thought accumulating snow was the deciding factor.

[wxman57]

http://youtu.be/K2IvVoL21Ac

Proof lol

Is everyone OK there? Oh the humanity...!

[gboudx]

We've got right at 1/4" at my house, maybe 1/3" , Denton has 1" plus. About what I expected. But our dear friend Lucy has broken fingers and hand because Charlie kicked the football!!!

Lowering standards? I thought accumulating snow was the deciding factor.

Oh I'm sure there are some snow flurries mixed in with the sleet accumulation. Beggars, choosers and all that you know.

[Portastorm]

http://youtu.be/K2IvVoL21Ac

Proof lol

Is everyone OK there? Oh the humanity...!

It's a shame you're letting your warm bias get in the way of enjoying a truly rare event. Snowflakes falling on Del Rioans doesn't happen very often. I guess this late blast of winter is making you cranky.

[longhornweather]

Portastorm, you had mentioned that it looked like things would fill in again later in the day and tonight. Does that still look to be the case or not so much now? Still seeing freezing drizzle here.

[hriverajr]

http://youtu.be/K2IvVoL21Ac

Proof lol

Is everyone OK there? Oh the humanity...!

Haha, the humanity enjoyed it

[wxman57]

It's a shame you're letting your warm bias get in the way of enjoying a truly rare event. Snowflakes falling on Del Rioans doesn't happen very often. I guess this late blast of winter is making you cranky.

Untrue! I'm thoroughly enjoying the 41 degrees here in Houston as I wait for the cold rain to begin. Snow in Del Rio gets me only slightly more excited than snow in Canada. It's a long ways off...

[SouthernMet]

Temps have stopped dropping in the Austin metro for the moment and are holding steady, if not rising a degree or 2.

[Portastorm]

Portastorm, you had mentioned that it looked like things would fill in again later in the day and tonight. Does that still look to be the case or not so much now? Still seeing freezing drizzle here.

Have not had time to look over any models since earlier today. Sorry. Around 7-8 am, stuff I saw suggested heavier precip could redevelop overnight. None of the models I know of are having an easy time today capturing the drizzle. If that alone keeps up well into the evening, you know temps will drop a bit more in the Austin metro area and we're already at/around 32. That'll ice up the bridges/overpasses fairly easily. We are already seeing numerous reports of that happening on the elevated roadways in the north/northwest part of Travis County.

Perhaps someone else on here can opine about what's ahead for us.

[SouthernMet]

Portastorm, you had mentioned that it looked like things would fill in again later in the day and tonight. Does that still look to be the case or not so much now? Still seeing freezing drizzle here.

Short term guidance doesn't appear to show what it was previously showing, with regards to a band of sleet/freezing rain this afternoon or light freezing rain through the evening.

That said if a steady drizzle keeps up there could still be some problems tonight.

[HockeyTx82]

This forecast does not make sense. Anyone care to help me out? High of 19? Temps are in the mid upper 20's........

http://mobile.weather.gov/index.php?lat=33.2&lon=-97.18

[wxman57]

This forecast does not make sense. Anyone care to help me out? High of 19? Temps are in the mid upper 20's........

http://mobile.weather.gov/index.php?lat=33.2&lon=-97.18

You got me. If you click the "+" sign under that high of 19 it thinks the current temperature is 18. Perhaps it's looking at the wrong city?

http://mobile.weather.gov/pages/hourlyFcst.php?lat=33.2&lon=-97.19&period=ThisAfternoon

[hriverajr]

It's a shame you're letting your warm bias get in the way of enjoying a truly rare event. Snowflakes falling on Del Rioans doesn't happen very often. I guess this late blast of winter is making you cranky.

Untrue! I'm thoroughly enjoying the 41 degrees here in Houston as I wait for the cold rain to begin. Snow in Del Rio gets me only slightly more excited than snow in Canada. It's a long ways off...

Well I was extremely excited.. You know diff that is to have down here? We are usually moisture deprived.. as well as the fact that Del Rio always runs warmer than anyone else in central texas in the winter.. heheh