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funster wrote:Lol. Two wimpy Green Bay Players think its too cold here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-28zgpFyM40
my Cowboys my Rockets my Astros
Ntxw wrote:I use accuwx pro for that one. There is a free site somewhere, not sure where though =/
South Texas Storms wrote:Ntxw wrote:I use accuwx pro for that one. There is a free site somewhere, not sure where though =/
Well can you tell me what it is showing for our area please?
South Texas Storms wrote:Ntxw wrote:
I use accuwx pro for that one. There is a free site somewhere, not sure where though =/
Well can you tell me what it is showing for our area please?
Ntxw wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:Ntxw wrote:I use accuwx pro for that one. There is a free site somewhere, not sure where though =/
Well can you tell me what it is showing for our area please?
Identical to the Canadian almost.
gboudx wrote:southerngale wrote:Jeff Lindner, about 15 minutes ago, on KHOU:
Potentially a historic snow event in the making for SE TX. Models continue to trend wetter and while QPF is not all that int he GFS its moisture fields above the surface are for sure. Am starting to think the CMC is on the right track here and feel some impressive totals will be possible with meso scale banding. Could easily see 3-5 inches across the entire area with bands over 6-8 inches ([b]my latest e-mail has a discussion of the thinking, if someone could post it). I could see someone getting a foot also, but who would forecast a foot of snow down here?
Interesting that the NAM wants to kick things off a bit earlier now on Thursday afternoon.
Suspect Watches will be hoisted tomorrow as we fall within 36 hours of the onset.
[/b]
Was it posted? He sent it around 5:30. Here it is in either case:Impressive arctic air mass pouring into the region late this afternoon with temperatures at or below freezing along and N of a line from Columbus to Tomball to Livingston. Cold air advection showing no signs of giving up with NW winds still howling at 25-35mph driving wind chills into the teens. Temperature records may be tied or broken over the next few days. Appears this will be the coldest air across N TX since the great outbreak of Dec 1989.
After reviewing full 12Z guidance, pattern upcoming pattern resembles that of past historical snow events over TX and is almost a mirror image of the very impressive 2004 Christmas event (only difference is more moisture and a stornger upper level storm, yes stronger than 2004!!!). CMC model refuses to back down on its very impressive snow fall totals and the GFS is starting to trend wetter. Not sure why the GFS and ECMWF are not producing more QPF as they show good moisture advection and near saturated surface to 500mb by late Thursday night completely below freezing. Given the forecast location of a developing coastal low, very strong upper level forcing and dynamics, and good Gulf moisture advection it all points to widespread heavy snowfall with impressive meso scale banding features.
With ground temperatures expected to be below freezing much of the time leading up to the event there will be little to no warmth for melting as the snow starts and this fact alone will help beef up totals.
If I would have forecasted a foot of snow in Victoria in 2004, I probably would not have believed myself much less expected others to believe me...and I have a really hard time forecasting totals more than 2-3" at this time. However I am becoming increasingly concerned that a potential historic snow event may be in the making and totals could be greater than 6-8 inches over parts of the area. Under meso scale banding hourly snowfall rates could approach 1-2 inches of accumulation with visibilities dropping to near 1/4th of a mile. Where these bands set up we could really see totals ramp up quick.
Right now will expand the 1-3" snow fall to include much of the area north of a line from Port Lavaca east to the coast near Palacios and then to High Island and inland to HWY 105. South of a line from Port Lavaca to San Antonio a mix of snow/sleet will cut totals down into the 1/2 to 1.5 inch range.
Extended period of sub freezing temperatures prior to the event will result in rare significant snow accumulation not only on bridges but all surface streets. Expect all roadways to become snow covered creating very dangerous driving conditions by late Thursday evening.
Suspect a Winter Storm Watch will be issued on Wednesday for the entire area or parts of the area as we move to within 36-40 hours of the onset of the event.
txagwxman wrote:Losing gas pressure in Dallas---friend just texted me.
txagwxman wrote:Losing gas pressure in Dallas---friend just texted me.
txagwxman wrote:Losing gas pressure in Dallas---friend just texted me.
orangeblood wrote:gboudx wrote:southerngale wrote:Jeff Lindner, about 15 minutes ago, on KHOU:
Potentially a historic snow event in the making for SE TX. Models continue to trend wetter and while QPF is not all that int he GFS its moisture fields above the surface are for sure. Am starting to think the CMC is on the right track here and feel some impressive totals will be possible with meso scale banding. Could easily see 3-5 inches across the entire area with bands over 6-8 inches ([b]my latest e-mail has a discussion of the thinking, if someone could post it). I could see someone getting a foot also, but who would forecast a foot of snow down here?
Interesting that the NAM wants to kick things off a bit earlier now on Thursday afternoon.
Suspect Watches will be hoisted tomorrow as we fall within 36 hours of the onset.
[/b]
Was it posted? He sent it around 5:30. Here it is in either case:Impressive arctic air mass pouring into the region late this afternoon with temperatures at or below freezing along and N of a line from Columbus to Tomball to Livingston. Cold air advection showing no signs of giving up with NW winds still howling at 25-35mph driving wind chills into the teens. Temperature records may be tied or broken over the next few days. Appears this will be the coldest air across N TX since the great outbreak of Dec 1989.
After reviewing full 12Z guidance, pattern upcoming pattern resembles that of past historical snow events over TX and is almost a mirror image of the very impressive 2004 Christmas event (only difference is more moisture and a stornger upper level storm, yes stronger than 2004!!!). CMC model refuses to back down on its very impressive snow fall totals and the GFS is starting to trend wetter. Not sure why the GFS and ECMWF are not producing more QPF as they show good moisture advection and near saturated surface to 500mb by late Thursday night completely below freezing. Given the forecast location of a developing coastal low, very strong upper level forcing and dynamics, and good Gulf moisture advection it all points to widespread heavy snowfall with impressive meso scale banding features.
With ground temperatures expected to be below freezing much of the time leading up to the event there will be little to no warmth for melting as the snow starts and this fact alone will help beef up totals.
If I would have forecasted a foot of snow in Victoria in 2004, I probably would not have believed myself much less expected others to believe me...and I have a really hard time forecasting totals more than 2-3" at this time. However I am becoming increasingly concerned that a potential historic snow event may be in the making and totals could be greater than 6-8 inches over parts of the area. Under meso scale banding hourly snowfall rates could approach 1-2 inches of accumulation with visibilities dropping to near 1/4th of a mile. Where these bands set up we could really see totals ramp up quick.
Right now will expand the 1-3" snow fall to include much of the area north of a line from Port Lavaca east to the coast near Palacios and then to High Island and inland to HWY 105. South of a line from Port Lavaca to San Antonio a mix of snow/sleet will cut totals down into the 1/2 to 1.5 inch range.
Extended period of sub freezing temperatures prior to the event will result in rare significant snow accumulation not only on bridges but all surface streets. Expect all roadways to become snow covered creating very dangerous driving conditions by late Thursday evening.
Suspect a Winter Storm Watch will be issued on Wednesday for the entire area or parts of the area as we move to within 36-40 hours of the onset of the event.
Can a pro met or someone explain to me how this potential event coming up is what Jeff Lindner calls a 'Mirror' image to the 2004 Storm ?? In 2004, the southeast ridge was extremely weak and allowed the trough to swing out into the Gulf of Mexico. This southeast ridge, which is much stronger now, appears like it will prevent any trough from swinging out into the gulf and also shear it as it moves to the northeast. The trajectories of the two troughs, as they move out of Northern Mexico, seem completely different and thus hard to compare.
snow4444 wrote:What are the new models showing for the DFW area and the cold and precip this thursday and into next week. It will be interesting to watch this unfold.
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