Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

Drats! You beat me to the punch TT!

I was just going to post about Sea-Tac hitting 3 inches. Very interesting to note that only two years have achieved that in the last 25 years. 1988 and 2000. 1988 is another year that is still on my increasingly short list of analog years. Like so many years it has problems, but it also has some great matches. The bone dry Feb and very wet April and May are some of the most obvious matches, but one very important one is the 500mb temperature anomolies in the tropics. Only three years since the late 1970s have been anywhere near the highly abnormal readings of this year. Those were 1983, 1988, and 1998 (all winters with nasty Arctic blasts). The anomolies in those years and this year were so extreme on that index, that it cannot be ignored. 1988 is a year that I need to really scrutinize. 1983 has shown interesting parallels also. Trying to find which years had the most in common with this one, in spite of big differences is proving to be a challenge.

As it stands 1914, 1978, and 1993 are the only ones I have settled on.

[TT-SEA]

1988 has some serious problems in the two places I have lived before Seattle.

Southern California was very dry except for one week in April.

The Midwest was already in the grips of their worst drought in their history by the end of May 1988. It was terribly hot and dry.

Both of those places experienced the opposite this spring.

The drought in the Midwest was so exceptional that it cannot be ignored.

This was May of 1988...




It is totally and completely wrong. 1988 (and 1968) should NOT be considered.

I know its tough. I think 1884 and 1993 are the best.

[snow_wizzard]

Wow!! I just noticed that Seattle did not have a May with 3 inches or more rain from 1909 - 1935. 1908 and 1936 both did and were both really cold winters.

I also love the years with daily rainfall records in the past week...1953 (2), 1968 (had 2), 1988, 1989, 2001, now 2005 (2)

Every one of those winters had Arctic cold and snow. 1989 - 90 had a really good Feb, and 2001 - 02 had a lot of snow from Everett northward. The other years were pure nastiness.

[TT-SEA]

Like I have said... totally different global patterns can produce the same local results.

1968 and 1988 are examples of that situation.

Both years are so wrong they must be thrown out. Despite both producing a wet May in Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

Sea-Tac is now at 3.11 inches of rain for May.

This is now the 4th wettest May since 1948.

[snow_wizzard]

If we hit 3.5 inches we will be in very rare territory! The only years to have 3.5 or more, back to 1850, in May are...

1856
1858
1873
1875
1879
1893
1896
1900
1948
1977

Quite interesting to note that it was more common in the 1800s!

Of the year that had such a wet May a high percentage had wet summers. The breakdown is as follows.

1856, 1858, 1879, 1948 - very wet summers

1873, 1900, 1977 - wet summers (1900 had a wet June and then dry)

1875 - normal

1893 - fairly dry

1896 - very dry

A couple of very interesting years are represented in this group, some comments follow...

1856 - Wettest summer ever (horrible)

1858 - Led to the VERY COLD year of 1859 (one of the 3 or 4 coldest years on record), that cool period began in July 1858.

1879 - Led to the infamous January 1880 snowstorm (the stuff legends are made of)

1896 - Led to the snowiest November on record for Seattle

1948 - Led to the very cold winter of 1948 - 49. That winter was beyond belief in Palmer! Deep snow on the ground for over three months straight, with a max depth of 49 inches.

This is the part I love! Out of the wet May years the ones that also had a wetter than normal April were.

1856
1858
1873
1879
1893
1896
1948

That weeds out all but two of the boring years. 1873 and 1893 are the two years that are left that did not lead to anything exciting. Of those two the winter of 1893 - 94 was still cold and snowy by todays standards.

The little bits of evidence just keep adding up that something big is brewing!

I think even TT might have to admit that these facts are quite intriguing. Especially the fact that so many of these years are 1900 or earlier!

[andrewr]

Anyone else starting to get a little breezy? Seems they are picking up at my house to around 20mph. Is the low strong enough to give any windy conditions for tonight and tomorrow?

[snow_wizzard]

Andrew...I would say we could see some fair winds but nothing to wild.

Yet another interesting little fact! The daily record rainfall for Olympia for today was from 1990. For some weird reason every year that had daily rainfall records from this part of May was a year that led to a cold winter. It gets to the point where you have to ask where does coincidence become meaningful! There are just oo many seemingly random things that are all saying COLD WINTER COMING!!!!!!

[snow_wizzard]

TT...Two kind of unrelated points here. One...You need to get yourself a "Weather Almanac" if you do not already have one. It is a weather textbook that has great historic data in it for the entire country.

Number 2...Do you know what the story is behind the little piece of Minnesota that goes above 49 degrees N latitude?

[TT-SEA]

I do not own a Weather Almanac... but the internet is an endless source of weather info.

That little section of Minnesota contains "Lake of the Woods"... I am not sure why its in Minnesota and not Canada though.

As far as a wet May... I am not sure. It is interesting that a wet May used to mean a wet summer and more recently it has meant a very dry summer.

I think you absolutely have to look at all factors together.

I would rather see what happens when we have an extremely dry late winter and then a wet April and May in Seattle (with very little mountain snow for the entire season)... with a weak El Nino... where California had amazing rain... and the Northeast was very cold... and the SOI and MJO were extremely variable. All during a warm regime of the PDO on the downside of major solar cycle!!!

I do not think a perfect example exists.

[R-Dub]

Been outside since 4:00AM this morning, and it really felt like a November morning! Very cold wind blowing about 25MPH, BRRRRRRR!! Currently 51 degrees, but dry for the moment.

[R-Dub]

Well I just lost power for about 10 seconds, winds now up to the 30-35 MPH range!!

[andycottle]

Good morning all. There sure has been a lot of precip over the last week, and infact, yesterday was my 8th straight day of measureable precip. How bout that! And we can thank mother nature for all thoes afternoon storms and down pours. So far during this 8 day time span, I`ve recieved 1.97". For the month so far, I am at 2.84". And for the yearly precip so far.... I`m at 13.10". -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Here in North Bend... we have had 4.50 inches for the month.

Andy... I am surprised that you are significantly below Sea-Tac for the year. I would think you would be higher.

[AnthonyC]

Ahhhh...good ol' Prom. The last dance of my high school era. Driving down to Seattle last night was quite the adventure...it was pooring down rain and the traffic was a nightmare. And then when I came home, it was fairly windy...it's still windy right now...nothing severe but impressive for the end of May.

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

Next weekend is starting to look toasty!!

Could be very warm with air being pumped up from the Southwest.

I think 80's will be common.

That will guaratee another above normal month... despite all rain.

[W13]

Man, I cannot wait until we get back to the warm and sunny days! Sounds like it will be soon, also, which is something to really look forward to.

Earlier this afternoon it got to 119*F in Death Valley, with 8% Humidity. It is currently 116*F with 8% Humidty as of 2:02PM. Now that is HOT!

[TT-SEA]

I wonder how those wildflowers are looking now in Death Valley!! Something tells me the steady stream of tourists has stopped.

Ironically... our flow will be from the south next weekend so look for some very warm temperatures in Seattle as well.

[andycottle]

Good early evening folks. Quite a breezy day here today as winds were probably near 30mph at times. Also had a light shower early this morning, followed by moderate rain squall that came through my area about 12:30pm or so. That shower maybe lasted 5, 10min. And put down .08" of rain. Rest of the day has been partly to mostly sunny and kinda breezy.

So now that is the 9th day in row with measureable! And from I said this morning, here`s where I stand on precip.

Total precip during the 9 day period:(13th - 22nd) 2.05"
Total for month so far: 2.92"
And the year so far: 13.18"

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

Yet another downpour in Covington today! We got a tenth of an inch in 5 minutes. What a week!

The GFS is really backing off on the warm weather later this week, while the ECMWF does show a fairly solid warm period. My guess is that it will at least partially fall through. The GFS already shows another short wave, with strong onshore flow, by day 5. The ECMWF shows what could easily be a heat thunderstorm event in the 8 - 10 day period. We will just have to wait and see on this.

The longer range shows a continuation of the pattern that has dominated this month. That being a series of sharp troughs digging into the NW and a mean trough over the NE with a ridge in between.