Texas Winter 2024-2025

[jasons2k]

Euro is starting to come around to my thinking on this…
500mb a lot more believable than the garbage on the GFS.

[Ralph's Weather]

Canadian has a 17k ft DGZ for E TX. 6"+ during just Tue morning. Big warm nose but where no mixing occurs would be an absolute dump. Would be wild to get sleet with surface in the teens, but with enough warm nose I guess its possible for sleet to mix in.

[Ivanhater]

Anyone have the freezing rain and sleet map for Gulf coast on Euro.

[Iceresistance]

Snowfall ratios are likely 20:1 for Oklahoma on the 12z CMC, around 10°F with snow

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sezbk.png


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sezbm.png

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro, for the storm


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sezb0.gif

[Ntxw]

Anyone have the freezing rain and sleet map for Gulf coast on Euro.

Will post them in the Deep South thread for you guys.

[Gotwood]

12z Euro, for the storm

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sezb0.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sezb0.gif

Looks about right. I remember last Jan the models were showing snow until 2 days before the cold and then it realized It will be too dry. I think something similar will happen this year as well.

[orangeblood]

Anyone have the freezing rain and sleet map for Gulf coast on Euro.

Mainly Frz Rain

[Stratton23]

Pattern looks to reload big time beyond the 27th according to the EPS/ GEPS

[wxman57]

Looking at the EC soundings, that freezing rain area looks more like sleet for SE TX.

[Ivanhater]

Thanks for posting y'all.

[BigB0882]

If snow and ice is laid down in that first round I wouldn’t be surprised to see that 2nd batch of precip be more frozen than it is showing. Temps will probably be lower than what it is calling for. That’s for the Euro.

[snownado]

Also don't forget models have been zoning in on a 2nd system the end of the week behind the first one.

Isn't that the one that gives DFW more of a chance, we've gotten shafted in DFW proper (Dallas and Tarrant counties, anyways) for the past few years. Nothing more than 3 in at a time.

I wouldn't call that shafted . That's more than the yearly average, and much more than anything from 2016-2019, a few have been under expectations for sure yeah.

Right.

DFW averages only 2" of snow in a year. So to get any snow at all (which actually DFW been fortunate enough to do for now 5 years in a row) is an achievement...

[captainbarbossa19]

Looking at the EC soundings, that freezing rain area looks more like sleet for SE TX.

I need to seriously invest in pivotal weather plus so I can view Euro soundings. If I remember correctly, sometimes the freezing rain product includes sleet accumulation too.

[orangeblood]

12Z Ensemble update....pretty clear looking at snow probabilities for next week which Model is the outlier

Euro ENS


GEPS


GEFS

[SnowintheFalls]

Why the big gaps over the Red River? It looks like it just hops right over the Red River counties. lol

[jasons2k]

Why the big gaps over the Red River? It looks like it just hops right over the Red River counties. lol

Northern stream and coastal trough evolving into a coastal low with a gap in-between.

[HockeyTx82]

Why the big gaps over the Red River? It looks like it just hops right over the Red River counties. lol

They got their snow last time, the Big Snow Industrial Complex is making sure to spread the joy.

[HockeyTx82]

Where did the record smashing Arctic air for Austin go? The very high air pressures will be there....

According to the GFS operational model (Jan. 15th, 12Z run), here are the forecasted temperatures, pressures, and snow for Austin Camp Mabry:

59–42...Saturday, 1/18
43–32...Sunday (1033 mb)
45–29...Monday (1035 mb)
36–28...Tuesday (1044 mb) (snow; 2.4 inches)
39–26...Wednesday (1040 mb)
49–38...Thursday (1024 mb)
49–37...Friday
51–33...Saturday, 1/25
61–40...Sunday

And just for fun, here is the Australian ACCESS–G model's forecast for Austin Camp Mabry (Jan. 15th, 00Z run):

58–42...Saturday, 1/18
42–32...Sunday (1028 mb)
37–29...Monday (1029:mb) (snow; 0.4 inches)
38–30...Tuesday (1040 mb) (snow; 0.4 new inches)
48–27...Wednesday (1040 mb)
52–32...Thursday (1032 mb)
46–43...Friday, 1/24 (model run ends at 6 pm CST)

Great question! The absence of Arctic air in the model run despite high pressures can be attributed to several meteorological factors:

1. **Model Resolution**: Weather models have varying resolutions, and sometimes they might not capture smaller-scale features like pockets of Arctic air[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://forum.mmm.ucar.edu/threads/wrf- ... 1daa162054 "1"). This can lead to discrepancies between the model output and actual weather conditions.

2. **Timing and Movement**: Arctic air masses can be highly transient and may move faster or slower than predicted by the model. If the model's timing is slightly off, it might miss the arrival of the cold air.

3. **Atmospheric Dynamics**: High pressure systems can sometimes block or redirect cold air masses. If the high pressure is strong and stable, it might prevent Arctic air from moving southward into the region.

4. **Model Limitations**: No model is perfect, and each has its own biases and limitations. The GFS model, for example, might not always accurately predict the extent or depth of cold air intrusions.

5. **Data Assimilation**: The initial conditions fed into the model can influence its output. If the data assimilation process doesn't fully capture the cold air, the model might not show it.

In summary, while the high pressures are a good indicator of potential cold weather, the actual presence of Arctic air can be influenced by a combination of model resolution, timing, atmospheric dynamics, model limitations, and data assimilation processes.

Does this help clarify things?

[cheezyWXguy]

Where did the record smashing Arctic air for Austin go? The very high air pressures will be there....

According to the GFS operational model (Jan. 15th, 12Z run), here are the forecasted temperatures, pressures, and snow for Austin Camp Mabry:

59–42...Saturday, 1/18
43–32...Sunday (1033 mb)
45–29...Monday (1035 mb)
36–28...Tuesday (1044 mb) (snow; 2.4 inches)
39–26...Wednesday (1040 mb)
49–38...Thursday (1024 mb)
49–37...Friday
51–33...Saturday, 1/25
61–40...Sunday

And just for fun, here is the Australian ACCESS–G model's forecast for Austin Camp Mabry (Jan. 15th, 00Z run):

58–42...Saturday, 1/18
42–32...Sunday (1028 mb)
37–29...Monday (1029:mb) (snow; 0.4 inches)
38–30...Tuesday (1040 mb) (snow; 0.4 new inches)
48–27...Wednesday (1040 mb)
52–32...Thursday (1032 mb)
46–43...Friday, 1/24 (model run ends at 6 pm CST)

Great question! The absence of Arctic air in the model run despite high pressures can be attributed to several meteorological factors:

1. **Model Resolution**: Weather models have varying resolutions, and sometimes they might not capture smaller-scale features like pockets of Arctic air[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://forum.mmm.ucar.edu/threads/wrf- ... 1daa162054 "1"). This can lead to discrepancies between the model output and actual weather conditions.

2. **Timing and Movement**: Arctic air masses can be highly transient and may move faster or slower than predicted by the model. If the model's timing is slightly off, it might miss the arrival of the cold air.

3. **Atmospheric Dynamics**: High pressure systems can sometimes block or redirect cold air masses. If the high pressure is strong and stable, it might prevent Arctic air from moving southward into the region.

4. **Model Limitations**: No model is perfect, and each has its own biases and limitations. The GFS model, for example, might not always accurately predict the extent or depth of cold air intrusions.

5. **Data Assimilation**: The initial conditions fed into the model can influence its output. If the data assimilation process doesn't fully capture the cold air, the model might not show it.

In summary, while the high pressures are a good indicator of potential cold weather, the actual presence of Arctic air can be influenced by a combination of model resolution, timing, atmospheric dynamics, model limitations, and data assimilation processes.

Does this help clarify things?

The AI chatbots have descended on S2K