Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Snowman67]

The temp here is not moving. It looks like the cold air in South Central Tx will begin to bleed east towards us now. It is 9 o clock now and we just ticked up .2 degrees to 54.3F lol.

Down to 50F now at my place.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Dewpoint is 33.3F though, thats dropping at a good clip. Just bring on the precip and that will help big time

[BigB0882]

Baton Rouge is at 44. It seems we are on track to hit freezing around 4 am as was originally called for. If the NAM is right and the precip starts sooner then I wonder if some of it beats the freezing temps. No bueno.

But someone mentioned dew points being much lower, below 30 so the precip should cool us quickly. Not sure how any of that works but that's what happens apparently, haha.

[Houstonia]

Pearland ISD CLOSED
HISD CLOSED
Lone Star College System CLOSED

come on.. UH, come on... come on!!

[TheProfessor]

Interrupting the show for an important message. We need to talk about the upcoming pattern. The EPO index is noteworthy as is the WPO index. More on the subject after the current system...stay tuned.

Back to your regular programming.

I was looking at the 12z EURO earlier, and it appears to me that there might be a significant severe weather outbreak the middle of next week in northern and eastern Texas, lots of divergence aloft with a cold pocket coming through.

what was the cape?

[Stormnut]

That's strange! Houston area usually cools a few hours before Baton Rouge with these fronts. We are at 42

[BigB0882]

That's strange! Houston area usually cools a few hours before Baton Rouge with these fronts. We are at 42

Yes, it is strange. Something odd has kept that area of Texas from cooling as quickly. The front moved through Houston much earlier than here but we are only 2 degrees above you all.

[Snowman67]

Just walked outside a very light drizzle falling. Precip ahead of schedule...

[Portastorm]

As srainhoutx just pointed out over on KHOU ... the 0z NAM-HIRES shows a couple of impressive waves of precip rolling through SC and SE Texas in the next 36 hours. A look at the 500mb vorticity depiction on this model and one can see why all the precip ... it moves the upper level system much further north as it nears Texas as compared to previous runs.

The breakout of precip in the Hill Country appears to confirm that the NAM is definitely on to something ... as compared to being on something!

[Stormnut]

BigB- I meant to reply the guy in Tomball. He said its 50 there still!!

[ROCK]

Dallas at 29F with Centerville at 41F....cold air mass is filtering in...

[Houstonia]

I never thought that the winter season could be as exciting as hurricane season!!

[Portastorm]

Sleet now coming down between Kerrville and Junction per NWS, ground truth reports.

[South Texas Storms]

As srainhoutx just pointed out over on KHOU ... the 0z NAM-HIRES shows a couple of impressive waves of precip rolling through SC and SE Texas in the next 36 hours. A look at the 500mb vorticity depiction on this model and one can see why all the precip ... it moves the upper level system much further north as it nears Texas as compared to previous runs.

The breakout of precip in the Hill Country appears to confirm that the NAM is definitely on to something ... as compared to being on something!

Yeah Porta I'm liking the recent developments this evening. Radar echoes are continuing to increase across central Texas. I wonder how much of it is reaching the ground.

[Snowman67]

Dallas at 29F with Centerville at 41F....cold air mass is filtering in...

Yup. 10 degrees cooler less than 60 miles NW of me.

[drred4]

40.0 here in Northeast brazos county

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looking at the SPC, you can see the pressure and temp gradient is fairly sharp if you head even west of Houston. I think the air will filter both from the west and the north but we are WAY higher than what we are supposed to be at. Dewpoint again is the crucial metric here i believe. We were forecast to be at 40F at 7 PM, but as i look now, at 10 PM, we are forecast for a dewpoint of 31F. Dewpoint forecast is on point so far.

[Portastorm]

As srainhoutx just pointed out over on KHOU ... the 0z NAM-HIRES shows a couple of impressive waves of precip rolling through SC and SE Texas in the next 36 hours. A look at the 500mb vorticity depiction on this model and one can see why all the precip ... it moves the upper level system much further north as it nears Texas as compared to previous runs.

The breakout of precip in the Hill Country appears to confirm that the NAM is definitely on to something ... as compared to being on something!

Yeah Porta I'm liking the recent developments this evening. Radar echoes are continuing to increase across central Texas. I wonder how much of it is reaching the ground.

Well, some of it is because NWS is receiving reports from the Hill Country that sleet is falling and reaching the ground. While our dewpoints are low, the layer of dry air isn't all that deep. Once the precip starts falling it won't be long before the entire air column is moistened up enough.

[Ntxw]

To me the surface temperature isn't that important. What I want to know is how did the balloon launch from Tamu and UH do? Would like to see what the temperature profile is above which is far more critical.

[BigB0882]

yes, have been waiting on that data, ntxw!