Texas Winter 2014-2015

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Overall I'd say DFW and most of North Texas handled this ice storm pretty well. Much better than the past. The salt/brine solution has done a good job on the major highways and the plows have really helped. Also FW had this warned and on top of the game since Friday, plenty of ample time and the schools closed down well before.

I will withhold my opinion until after my evening commute.

[WacoWx]

Very light flurry and 28 here. Going for a urban hike.

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

He knows how to kick a man when he is down

Like salt on a fresh wound.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Anyone notice the HRRR and RAP breaking out precipitation across central Texas and it pushing off to the northeast into southern-northern Texas overnight? Looks like a little piece of energy may move overhead tonight.

[weatherdude1108]

Just found a video of wxman57 visiting the PWC to talk about "no snow".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfjx2CA_a1Q

Are you suggesting that the PWC is staffed by chimpanzees?

I must admit that was comical. We will get our beloved PWC back online and in good working order for at least one snowflake/sleet pellet this week.

I love this forum!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Anyone notice the HRRR and RAP breaking out precipitation across central Texas and it pushing off to the northeast into southern-northern Texas overnight? Looks like a little piece of energy may move overhead tonight.

I see that. Its the SJT. Can always provide a surprise with impulses. Especially with a ULL out west.

[dhweather]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>134-141-240530-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-COMANCHE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON
316 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

DRIVING CONDITIONS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON
HEAVILY TRAVELED ROADS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS
WILL REFREEZE TONIGHT INTO SMOOTH ICE. IF THERE IS CURRENTLY SLUSH
ON THE ROADS WHERE YOU ARE...EXPECT A SLICK GLAZE FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE MORE CHALLENGING THAN THE
DRIVING CONDITIONS WERE TODAY.

FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL IN LIQUID FORM...WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...THIS DRIZZLE WOULD
FREEZE ON CONTACT. THE RESULTING GLAZE WOULD IMPACT ALL ROAD
SURFACES...ONLY WORSENING DRIVING CONDITIONS.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION. ALLOW PLENTY OF SPACE
BETWEEN YOU AND THE VEHICLE IN FRONT OF YOU. AVOID MAKING SHARP
TURNS OR BRAKING SUDDENLY.

$$

[Texas Snowman]

Yeah, with little if any melting today, most Grayson County schools (including Denison and Sherman) have already pulled the plug on school for tomorrow.

[Brent]

[wxman57]

My day (months) will be coming soon! Winter is on its last legs now, though it seems to have quite a few of them.

In a few months the discussion will go something like this:

[gboudx]

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

TXZ093>095-103>107-118>123-133-134-240600-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0002.150225T0600Z-150225T1800Z/
GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-TARRANT-
DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-JOHNSON-ELLIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...
DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...
GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...FORT WORTH...
ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...
WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...EMORY...
POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS
346 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

...winter storm watch in effect from late tuesday night through
wednesday morning...

the National Weather Service in fort worth has issued a winter
storm watch, which is in effect from late tuesday night through
wednesday morning.

* timing, after midnight tuesday night through noon wednesday.

* precipitation type, snow.

* accumulations, 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts
possible.

* main impact, travel on all roadways, bridges and overpasses
may be hazardous.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter storm watch means there is a potential for significant
snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.

&&

[dhweather]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
347 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...MORE WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...

.LATEST CHANGES TO CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED AND REPLACED WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS ONGOING ICE ON AREA ROADS AND
MINOR FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
SOME LIGHT SLEET.

A NEW WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF
STRONG UPPER TROUGH.

.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE HEAVY SLEET HAS NOW MOVED OUT OF NORTH TEXAS WITH ONLY
LIGHT SLEET OR SOME SNOW GRAINS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALTHOUGH NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL RIPPLES INDICATIVE OF WEAK
FORCING ALOFT WHICH WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S.
AND INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR A FEW
MORE POCKETS OF SLEET LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA UNTIL
TOMORROW MORNING.

FARTHER NORTH...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF TRAVEL PROBLEMS AS COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SLUSH AND ICE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON AREA ROADS.
THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE OF BRIDGES AND ROADS THAT HAVE NOT
BEEN TREATED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S IN AREAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT SLEET OCCURRED...SO LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MELT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE SO CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO FREEZING OR ABOVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...SO MUCH OF THE SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL MELT ON ROADS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE SLICK SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

ATTENTION GETS TURNED TO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE MAIN
UPPER LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA COMES RACING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THIS IS A POWERFUL COLD CORE UPPER LOW THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CWA. THIS TRACK IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE
VERY STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE TIED VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF
THE LOW. THIS FORCING WILL COOL THE THERMAL PROFILE AS IT COMES
ACROSS AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONE OR MORE BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW. ANALYSIS OF 750-650MB TEMPERATURE AND THETA-E REVEALS
A TROWAL THAT SETS UP ACROSS OUR EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WARM
CONVEYOR BELT FEATURE WILL FORCE A RICH SUPPLY OF MOISTURE UPWARD
INTO VERY COLD AIR. WITH THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW...MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO SUGGEST THAT
SOME OF THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY. THIS TYPE OF UPPER LOW IS ONE
THAT CLIMATOLOGICALLY PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS SOME PART OF NORTH
TEXAS. A RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY IS IN PLACE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SCOURED OUT IN ANY WAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME BANDS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW.

CONCERNS...

IF THE TRACK IS TOO FAR SOUTH...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM
FOR SNOWFALL AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FARTHER SOUTH.
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW.

BANDED SNOW NEAR THE CORE OF THE LOW. WHILE WE WILL HAVE MUCH OF
OUR NORTHEAST CWA UNDER A NEW WINTER STORM WATCH...IT IS LIKELY
THAT NOT ALL OF THESE AREAS WILL BE IMPACTED BY HEAVY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THESE TYPES OF LOWS TYPICALLY PRODUCE BANDS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW...SO SOME AREAS COULD PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY MORE THAN
OTHERS JUST MILES AWAY.

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS SLEET
EVENT...THERE WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SO IT IS POSSIBLE TO
HAVE CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS SET UP. CONVECTIVE SNOW WOULD ACCUMULATE
VERY QUICKLY.

CONFIDENCE...

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN AT LEAST ONE SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED OUR HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEW WINTER STORM WATCH FROM AREAS IN THE
METROPLEX NORTHEAST TO PARIS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY FAST MOVING. AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. STRONG WARMING WILL OCCUR RIGHT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AND SKIES MAY ACTUALLY BECOME SUNNY BY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD MELT ANY ACCUMULATED SNOWS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

DUNN

[Texas Snowman]

If only we could move that south to the Austin area...

[TheProfessor]

Not very often you are under a winter storm warning and then a winter storm watch on the same day.

[dhweather]

Not very often you are under a winter storm warning and then a winter storm watch on the same day.

This is the first time I've seen that in 9 years here. Winter, dead since November, says she will not go out without a last hoorah.

I only wish I could redirect the low over the PWC and let them have it.

[Brent]

Convective snow

Finally we get some winter around this place.

[Ntxw]

Well that escalated quickly. Funny thing is, if the ENS are correct they may be hoisting more watches for late week after Wednesday.

[TheProfessor]

so is the moisture/lift going to be that much different that they don't think the western counties are going to see snow?

[Texas Snowman]

Well that escalated quickly. Funny thing is, if the ENS are correct they may be hoisting more watches for late week after Wednesday.

http://i60.tinypic.com/160xzed.png

We've got to get some of those pretty colors down south. The way Heat Miser is piling on the PWC director, who knows what poor Portastorm will do?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: so is the moisture/lift going to be that much different that they don't think the western counties are going to see snow?

The storm will be going neutral/negative tilt. It's the kind of system that pulls moisture back and develops a trowel. Most guidance suggest the trowel will develop along and east of I-35 while the westplexers go under subsidence. If the storm wraps up quicker out west then it would extend further west.