Texas Winter 2013-2014

[South Texas Storms]

Another evening update from EWX:

".UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT TO EASE THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN/SLEET MIX
TO SNOW WITH MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING AT A SLOWER RATE THAN EARLIER
PROJECTED DESPITE THE ADDED HELP OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES
IN THE DRY LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE POPS AND AMOUNTS
FROM THE EARLIER UPDATE. IN UPDATING THE TRENDS...DECIDED TO PULL
LOW TEMPS BACK UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS...NAMELY AROUND
FREDERICKSBURG AND SAN ANTONIO."

[davidiowx]

0z GFS rolling in and it looks a LOT like the 0z NAM ... big depature from previous runs. Like the 0z NAM, upper level energy is further north and more progressive as compared to previous runs. Almost looks too fast. It shears out the low quickly as compared to previous runs which kept ULL more intact/compact.

Oh I hope you are right and I hope it maintains the better look all the way through the run so we all can hope for more FUN!

What I'm taking away from this GFS run is that clearly the Mexican system wasn't sampled well. And some of that upper level energy is going to end up much closer to Texas. And as I said earlier, the early outbreak of precip in the Hill Country, well west of where it was supposed to start, should show us that the precip chances for SC and SE Texas are more enhanced than what earlier models showed. Probably also due to this system having some connection with Pacific jet moisture. I'd shudder to start guessing about actual QPF/accumulation amounts but clearly it's looking much better than it did 6 hours ago even.

I agree completely. I think the moisture is clearly there, especially out of Mexico. The dew points are at around freezing now which will enable rapid cooling as soon as precip falls. I just wonder if the surface temp, being so high right now, will prevent any accumulation of zrain, sleet or snow in SE TX. If the moisture continues to train in from W TX as it is starting to do, it could be a long day tomorrow once the freezing mark has been reached. This looks to be setting up for a fun night

[gboudx]

Dallas at 29F with Centerville at 41F....cold air mass is filtering in...

Is the 29 from DFW airport? We're lower than that at 26. Dew point -1. *spark*

[Rgv20]

Both 0zNAM and 0zGFS came in much wetter for Deep South Texas, both models show 0.20+ QPF with temperatures in the mid 30s! For my area 0zGFS starts the precip as Sleet than changes it to Snow as the precipitation leaves. Going to be interesting what the NWS Brownsville has to say in the early morning update!

[downsouthman1]

I have not caught up to the thread yet. I'm 6 pages back but wanted to report that it's sleeting currently here in Killeen, even though what's showing up on Radar over our area is extremely light, the temp is 34 degrees, & the Dewpoint is 0. I'm extremely surprised & thought I was hearing things pitter patter on the window, until I stepped outside & verified for myself that they are sleet pellets that are wetting the ground.

[gboudx]

Maybe you SELA, SoMiss folks would like to check T. Scott Barry's FB page.

https://www.facebook.com/SoutheastLouisianaWeather

[Ntxw]

I have not caught up to the thread yet. I'm 6 pages back but wanted to report that it's sleeting currently here in Killeen, even though what's showing up on Radar over our area is extremely light, the temp is 34 degrees, & the Dewpoint is 0. I'm extremely surprised & thought I was hearing things pitter patter on the window, until I stepped outside & verified for myself that they are sleet pellets that are wetting the ground.

We are on pace to beat 2009/2010 page count! And given the fact back then fall and spring added to the 477 (we have separate threads now for that) is quite impressive and likely already surpassed it month to month.

[South Texas Storms]

I have not caught up to the thread yet. I'm 6 pages back but wanted to report that it's sleeting currently here in Killeen, even though what's showing up on Radar over our area is extremely light, the temp is 34 degrees, & the Dewpoint is 0. I'm extremely surprised & thought I was hearing things pitter patter on the window, until I stepped outside & verified for myself that they are sleet pellets that are wetting the ground.

Thanks for the report. I am also surprised that the sleet is reaching the ground with a dewpoint of 0. You gotta be pretty close to being all snow that far north. Any snowflakes mixed in with the sleet?

[BigB0882]

Maybe you SELA, SoMiss folks would like to check T. Scott Barry's FB page.

https://www.facebook.com/SoutheastLouisianaWeather

Thanks! I am on his mailing list and always find it so useful when we have a big rain event coming. I never thought to look for him on Facebook.

[South Texas Storms]

I have not caught up to the thread yet. I'm 6 pages back but wanted to report that it's sleeting currently here in Killeen, even though what's showing up on Radar over our area is extremely light, the temp is 34 degrees, & the Dewpoint is 0. I'm extremely surprised & thought I was hearing things pitter patter on the window, until I stepped outside & verified for myself that they are sleet pellets that are wetting the ground.

We are on pace to beat 2009/2010 page count! And given the fact back then fall and spring added to the 477 (we have separate threads now for that) is quite impressive and likely already surpassed it month to month.

I was just going through a few of the snow events from that thread a few hours ago. I can't believe College Station had 3 different snow events that winter. That was a great winter!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think im seeing a couple impulses in Mexico that should be crossing the border soon. Im ok with temps where they are as long as the dewpoint keeps dropping. I have no idea why the temps arent falling. Very strange since its dark out

[Portastorm]

37 here at PWC but yes we just had a light rain shower pass through.

I also want to point out that the shower dropped my surface temp three degrees. Tells me once precip starts it's going to be an efficient temperature reduction device.

[downsouthman1]

Also of note: the Dewpoint a few miles to my west shot from 0 to 7 degrees as the temp dropped to 32 under that little sleet shower. Plenty of room left for evaporative cooling & top-down saturation.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I have not caught up to the thread yet. I'm 6 pages back but wanted to report that it's sleeting currently here in Killeen, even though what's showing up on Radar over our area is extremely light, the temp is 34 degrees, & the Dewpoint is 0. I'm extremely surprised & thought I was hearing things pitter patter on the window, until I stepped outside & verified for myself that they are sleet pellets that are wetting the ground.

We are on pace to beat 2009/2010 page count! And given the fact back then fall and spring added to the 477 (we have separate threads now for that) is quite impressive and likely already surpassed it month to month.

I was just going through a few of the snow events from that thread a few hours ago. I can't believe College Station had 3 different snow events that winter. That was a great winter!

I think that was the first winter where i couldnt wait for spring. Was VERY VERY cold.

[Ellsey]

I hope you all enjoy your moisture in whatever form. Dewpoint here currently -3. I think I'm breathing sandpaper at this point.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm watching the Intellicast winter weather radar and it's showing the frozen precip line quickly advancing southward and is about to pass through Georgetown. You may be getting some sleet by midnight Porta!

[Portastorm]

I'm watching the Intellicast winter weather radar and it's showing the frozen precip line quickly advancing southward and is about to pass through Georgetown. You may be getting some sleet by midnight Porta!

I'll be watching! Yeah, I was just perusing a couple of radar sites. Amazing how much is already covering the Hill Country and SC Texas already. Remarkable. We must always remember that these systems coming out of Mexico can be unpredictable.

[downsouthman1]

Look at the more intense convective type showers developing east of San Angelo & south of Brownwood: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... oth=0&MR=1

[downsouthman1]

I'm watching the Intellicast winter weather radar and it's showing the frozen precip line quickly advancing southward and is about to pass through Georgetown. You may be getting some sleet by midnight Porta!

I'll be watching! Yeah, I was just perusing a couple of radar sites. Amazing how much is already covering the Hill Country and SC Texas already. Remarkable. We must always remember that these systems coming out of Mexico can be unpredictable.

That's because we don't have the luxury of a data network in Mexico. No upper air soundings. No radar coverage. Only satellites & that's mainly good for water vapor. More sleet here now.

Just noticed Lago Vista's Dewpoint is now up to 16. It appears top-down saturation is occurring extremely rapidly under the showers/light sleet.

Edit source: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=zfw

[Portastorm]

I'm watching the Intellicast winter weather radar and it's showing the frozen precip line quickly advancing southward and is about to pass through Georgetown. You may be getting some sleet by midnight Porta!

I'll be watching! Yeah, I was just perusing a couple of radar sites. Amazing how much is already covering the Hill Country and SC Texas already. Remarkable. We must always remember that these systems coming out of Mexico can be unpredictable.

That's because we don't have the luxury of a data network in Mexico. No upper air soundings. No radar coverage. Only satellites & that's mainly good for water vapor. More sleet here now.

Just noticed Lago Vista's Dewpoint is now up to 16. It appears top-down saturation is occurring extremely rapidly under the showers/light sleet.

Edit source: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=zfw

Yeah downsouthman1, EWX has stressed that fact tonight -- that the top-down process will be quick and authoritative in establishing wintry precip. And we're seeing that occur in front of us.