Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Texas Snowman]

:uarrow: so is the moisture/lift going to be that much different that they don't think the western counties are going to see snow?

The storm will be going neutral/negative tilt. It's the kind of system that pulls moisture back and develops a trowel. Most guidance suggest the trowel will develop along and east of I-35 while the westplexers go under subsidence. If the storm wraps up quicker out west then it would extend further west.

Wasn't that what happened back in 2004 with the Valentine's Day snowstorm?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: so is the moisture/lift going to be that much different that they don't think the western counties are going to see snow?

The storm will be going neutral/negative tilt. It's the kind of system that pulls moisture back and develops a trowel. Most guidance suggest the trowel will develop along and east of I-35 while the westplexers go under subsidence. If the storm wraps up quicker out west then it would extend further west.

Wasn't that what happened back in 2004 with the Valentine's Day snowstorm?

I don't remember the sypnotics well in 2004 but if you recall January 2011 early in the month (before the superbowl storm) there was a wet snowstorm that gave eastplexers a dose. Looks kind of like that.

[Texas Snowman]

My day (months) will be coming soon! Winter is on its last legs now, though it seems to have quite a few of them.

In a few months the discussion will go something like this:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/hot.jpg

Where's the head official for this forum?!? That's worthy of a technical foul for flagrant taunting and an ejection from the game!!!!

[Texas Snowman]

The storm will be going neutral/negative tilt. It's the kind of system that pulls moisture back and develops a trowel. Most guidance suggest the trowel will develop along and east of I-35 while the westplexers go under subsidence. If the storm wraps up quicker out west then it would extend further west.

Wasn't that what happened back in 2004 with the Valentine's Day snowstorm?

I don't remember the sypnotics well in 2004 but if you recall January 2011 early in the month (before the superbowl storm) there was a wet snowstorm that gave eastplexers a dose. Looks kind of like that.

I was thinking that's what happened on 2/14/2004. Snowfall amounts were lighter as you went west of I-35, heavier to the east. Want to say it was a trowel too, even prompted a change from Winter Storm Warnings at the height of the event to a Heavy Snow Warning by Fort Worth NWS.

I remember that storm well, my wife and I went to see the movie "Miracle" that day about the 1980 U.S. Olympic hockey team defeating Russia at the Lake Placid Olympics. Incidentally, that game was 35 years ago yesterday.

[gboudx]

The article below doesn't specifically mention "trowal", but sounds similar with ULL passing overhead.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=snowfeb142004

[ludosc]

already seeing closings for tomorrow

Aledo, Weatherford, Celina, Mineral Wells, Decatur and some others have closed.

I wonder if the big ones (FTW, Dallas, Arlington) will drop as well

[Ntxw]

Yes I just went through some re-analysis of the Valentines days storm and it does appear that system fits too. It was a strong ULL that went neutral then slightly negative tilt as it crossed the state in similar fashion and location. 5h set up is identical.

[Wntrwthrguy]

All of this Valentine's day 2004 snow talk is just more salt on the wounds for us Austin folks LOL.

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow: Yes I just went through some re-analysis of the Valentines days storm and it does appear that system fits too. It was a strong ULL that went neutral then slightly negative tilt as it crossed the state in similar fashion and location. 5h set up is identical.

Well if it's like the 2004 storm then I might see snow Like I did then, I live about 5 miles east of 35 so I'm always right on the border.

[Texas Snowman]

:uarrow: Yes I just went through some re-analysis of the Valentines days storm and it does appear that system fits too. It was a strong ULL that went neutral then slightly negative tilt as it crossed the state in similar fashion and location. 5h set up is identical.

I may be wrong, but I think when the NWS upgraded the Winter Storm Warning to a Heavy Snow Warning for parts of North Texas during that event, it's the only time I've ever seen that in the 35 years I've lived here. We ended up with 6-8" of wet snow here along the River if I remember correctly.

[Texas Snowman]

All of this Valentine's day 2004 snow talk is just more salt on the wounds for us Austin folks LOL.

Man, I love snow, but I'd trade it in a heartbeat for you guys down there in ATX to get some meaningful winter precipitation! ALWAYS pulling for Portastorm!

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Yes I just went through some re-analysis of the Valentines days storm and it does appear that system fits too. It was a strong ULL that went neutral then slightly negative tilt as it crossed the state in similar fashion and location. 5h set up is identical.

I may be wrong, but I think when the NWS upgraded the Winter Storm Warning to a Heavy Snow Warning for parts of North Texas during that event, it's the only time I've ever seen that in the 35 years I've lived here. We ended up with 6-8" of wet snow here along the River if I remember correctly.

Yeah the NWS discontinued the heavy snow warning in 2009 and clumped it with winter storm warnings. If it still existed snowmageddon would've qualified.

[Texas Snowman]

:uarrow: The article below doesn't specifically mention "trowal", but sounds similar with ULL passing overhead.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=snowfeb142004

Yup, that's the one. I thought the set-up seemed similar. I do remember the snowfall being a little more than what they show on that accumulation map. I know how to measure snow and our local TV mets do too and yet I'll occasionally see a post-storm report from NWS that seems to be off just a little bit from what we experienced up here. Wonder why?

[Texas Snowman]

Yeah the NWS discontinued the heavy snow warning in 2009 and clumped it with winter storm warnings. If it still existed snowmageddon would've qualified.

I can't remember what the warning criteria was for that, do you? Want to say it was 4+ inches in a 4-6 hour window or something like that. And yes, the Snowmageddon storm certainly would have qualified.

[Ntxw]

I can't remember what the warning criteria was for that, do you? Want to say it was 4+ inches in a 4-6 hour window or something like that. And yes, the Snowmageddon storm certainly would have qualified.

I can't recall the exact criteria for us. Up north it was 4 or 6 inches in like 12 hours or something it was frequent up there back then. I know winter storm warnings generally meant 2-4" within 12 hours back then. So I guess anything more than that was considered heavy snow warning.

[JDawg512]

All of this Valentine's day 2004 snow talk is just more salt on the wounds for us Austin folks LOL.

Well if it's anything like Valentines Day 2004 then maybe we might get snow because we got snow then. Maybe there will be some energy further south. (Wishful thinking)

I'm just about done with winter. I'm hoping my peach tree buds don't die like they did last year leaving me with no fruit. If it happens again I'll be mad.

[TexasF6]

Light drizzle at Longhorn WX Center in NW Austin. Just saw cv2s models? Snow will hit Austin. Just wait. Quit picking on Porta!

[Shoshana]

Light drizzle at Longhorn WX Center in NW Austin. Just saw cv2s models? Snow will hit Austin. Just wait. Quit picking on Porta!

When are we supposed to get snow? I don't want to sleep through it lol....


And on a freezing note, I'm seeing ice on the faucet covers and where the downspouts were dripping water earlier today

[Ntxw]

For interests basically all of the big Dallas county schools are closed including DISD for tomorrow.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

36 in my neighborhood. SW of Houston with showers. Keep on dropping!