Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS
NOTE: All totals are in a 10:1 ratio, Ratios are 15:1, 20:1, & 25:1 in Oklahoma & parts of Northern Texas

Mean Snowfall
10-13 inches in Central Oklahoma
8-14 inches in DFW


Ensemble Snowfall

[rwfromkansas]

Down to 32 again IMBY.

[Iceresistance]

Down to 32 again IMBY.

Got up to 20°F for 10-15 minutes, now at 19°F & dropping . . .

[BigD938]

So when do we start posting guesses on totals?
Like dfw? 12” on the ground after the second storm?
Just kinda putting average of what everyone is saying

[captainbarbossa19]

Poor Old Farmer's Almanac. They called for a mild February in Texas. https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/zipcode/76137?page=5

[Ntxw]

So when do we start posting guesses on totals?
Like dfw? 12” on the ground after the second storm?
Just kinda putting average of what everyone is saying

4-8" with the first, 4-8" with the second so 8-16". Depending on profile, I'm going to guess 12 between the two. For DFW.

[TexasSam]

So someone explain something to me, if it's possible. The NWS message just posted mentioned sporadic, but temporary power outages due to icing, my paid weather service basically mirrored that message, but on here, it seems people are really concerned about it, enough to buy generators. I'm on the fence about a generator, and I know I can buy and return if I don't use it, but I'm trying to convince myself I need one here in NW Houston.

Many stores won't take back generators during times like this. If you open the box forget it. Remember to put in oil before you start it. also make sure it has the plug outlets you need. Some need a sold separate connection. good luck.

[orangeblood]

So when do we start posting guesses on totals?
Like dfw? 12” on the ground after the second storm?
Just kinda putting average of what everyone is saying

4-8" with the first, 4-8" with the second so 8-16". Depending on profile, I'm going to guess 12 between the two. For DFW.

4-8” 1st, 6-10” 2nd but that’s highly dependent on upper level profiles which are a little tricky attm

[Iceresistance]

Poor Old Farmer's Almanac. They called for a mild February in Texas. https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/zipcode/76137?page=5

A big L for them!

[SoupBone]

So someone explain something to me, if it's possible. The NWS message just posted mentioned sporadic, but temporary power outages due to icing, my paid weather service basically mirrored that message, but on here, it seems people are really concerned about it, enough to buy generators. I'm on the fence about a generator, and I know I can buy and return if I don't use it, but I'm trying to convince myself I need one here in NW Houston.

Many stores won't take back generators during times like this. If you open the box forget it. Remember to put in oil before you start it. also make sure it has the plug outlets you need. Some need a sold separate connection. good luck.

This would definitely a "break seal in case of emergency" type of deal so I wouldn't open and run it unless I actually needed it.

[wxman57]

So someone explain something to me, if it's possible. The NWS message just posted mentioned sporadic, but temporary power outages due to icing, my paid weather service basically mirrored that message, but on here, it seems people are really concerned about it, enough to buy generators. I'm on the fence about a generator, and I know I can buy and return if I don't use it, but I'm trying to convince myself I need one here in NW Houston.

You may have less freezing rain there and more sleet/snow. It's the freezing rain that brings down tree limbs and power lines. I think I'll be buying gas for my generator tomorrow (SW Houston), as we're closer to the freezing rain area.

[wxman57]

So someone explain something to me, if it's possible. The NWS message just posted mentioned sporadic, but temporary power outages due to icing, my paid weather service basically mirrored that message, but on here, it seems people are really concerned about it, enough to buy generators. I'm on the fence about a generator, and I know I can buy and return if I don't use it, but I'm trying to convince myself I need one here in NW Houston.

One thing you have to keep in mind about the generators is they use gasoline. If power is out at your house and surrounding gas stations you may not be able to get gas for that generator. Particularly if the roads are so bad you can't even drive there. That is why I didn't buy one.

Right, you'd also need to buy 4-5 5-gallon gas cans and fill them up tomorrow. Can't bring the gas back, but you can get a funnel and use it in your car. We did that after the Laura scare last summer.

[Haris]

Hey IceResistance, I love your passion but you do not have to put the large red text about ratios on every single post. We know just a friendly recommendation

[Iceresistance]

Hey IceResistance, I love your passion but you do not have to put the large red text about ratios on every single post. We know just a friendly recommendation

Okay then, I was planning to slow that way down as the storm gets closer anyway . . .

[Ntxw]

So when do we start posting guesses on totals?
Like dfw? 12” on the ground after the second storm?
Just kinda putting average of what everyone is saying

4-8" with the first, 4-8" with the second so 8-16". Depending on profile, I'm going to guess 12 between the two. For DFW.

4-8” 1st, 6-10” 2nd but that’s highly dependent on upper level profiles which are a little tricky attm

The second system will have a lot more moisture. I can see a 10-14" even, track is also key here too. But it's one I think will be the same as usual guidance will pick up on reality as we draw closer.

[Iceresistance]

4-8" with the first, 4-8" with the second so 8-16". Depending on profile, I'm going to guess 12 between the two. For DFW.

4-8” 1st, 6-10” 2nd but that’s highly dependent on upper level profiles which are a little tricky attm

The second system will have a lot more moisture. I can see a 10-14" even, track is also key here too. But it's one I think will be the same as usual guidance will pick up on reality as we draw closer.

If you thought the first one was bad enough . . .

[cheezyWXguy]

HRRR is starting to sniff out the full extent of the precip shield with the first wave overnight. Getting gradually more expansive and wetter with each run. Still falsely showing freezing rain even though the sounding easily supports snow though. I think Ntxw is onto something about getting a quick couple inches up front before the main event

[captainbarbossa19]

HRRR is starting to sniff out the full extent of the precip shield with the first wave overnight. Getting gradually more expansive and wetter with each run. Still falsely showing freezing rain even though the sounding easily supports snow though. I think Ntxw is onto something about getting a quick couple inches up front before the main event

Not sure if it will be right, but the 18z HRRR showed around 9 inches of snow near Beaumont. That would be incredible if that were to happen. I think that might be the most snow in this area since 1895.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So someone explain something to me, if it's possible. The NWS message just posted mentioned sporadic, but temporary power outages due to icing, my paid weather service basically mirrored that message, but on here, it seems people are really concerned about it, enough to buy generators. I'm on the fence about a generator, and I know I can buy and return if I don't use it, but I'm trying to convince myself I need one here in NW Houston.

You may have less freezing rain there and more sleet/snow. It's the freezing rain that brings down tree limbs and power lines. I think I'll be buying gas for my generator tomorrow (SW Houston), as we're closer to the freezing rain area.

Already have a generator ready to roll. Filling cars and cans tonight. 2" of liquid. Man i hope its sleet and not rain.

[cheezyWXguy]

HRRR is starting to sniff out the full extent of the precip shield with the first wave overnight. Getting gradually more expansive and wetter with each run. Still falsely showing freezing rain even though the sounding easily supports snow though. I think Ntxw is onto something about getting a quick couple inches up front before the main event

Not sure if it will be right, but the 18z HRRR showed around 9 inches of snow near Beaumont. That would be incredible if that were to happen. I think that might be the most snow in this area since 1895.

That’s probably a little exaggerated, as the HRRR snowfall map assumes all winter precip is snow. However, since Beaumont is expected to see more mixed precip types, accumulations will be a bit less, but I’m sure still quite significant