Pacific Northwest Weather

[invisible]

Which model do you think is more accurate, Tim ?? I think both of them arent sure how strong marine air will come here this weekend. I think this weekend will be just cooler and sunny.

[andycottle]

A Spectaular and sunny weekend coming up!

Hi all, and good evening!

Taking a look at the latest models this evening, the GEM, NAM and UKMET models shows cooler weather with maybe a few showers toward end of the weekend. BUT....I just don`t see that happening. 00Z GFS and MM5 models tonight show very high 850MB temps of 18 to 21+C through next Tuesday and even into Wednesday June 1st. So while a weak cut-off trough of low pressure goes into Southern Cal, which should give them clouds and showers, it appears that a thermal area of high pressure with a 500MB height of 582DM will be right over us for late in the weekend into early next week.

This in turn should give surface temp readings of high upper 80`s to low 90`s with definally sunny skies prevailing. ETA-MOS for Seattle showing a high 91 Friday and 84 Saturday. On the other hand, NGM-MOS shows 89 and 82 for both of thoes days, while the GFS has lower 80`s through Monday, then down into the 70`s for Tuesday/Wednesday time frame.

In the longer range....looks like some what of a cooling trend by around June 4th with probably just cloudy skies. The cooler weather appears to continue through June 10th to which by that time, cooler weather should definally be upon us as a 540DM trough with clouds/ showers should return temps back they should be.....in the 60`s.

So as mentioned for the upcoming weekend, sunny warm weather looks right on track. Keep thoes shades and sunblock handy!

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

Certainly no doubt, it is going to be hot at least through Friday. I would have to say that Saturday is looking awfully warm too. The GFS totally blew it to say the least. The ECMWF continues to have a better handle on things. I still think we will see a strong marine push on either Sunday or Monday. It should be really fun to see just how warm things get over the next two days. If it gets to 90 - 95 I would be in awe. At this point the more unusaul the better in my book! How about record heat plunging to much below normal temps by June 5th or so?

It is interesting to note that now the ECMWF shows us in a cooler regime by day 8 than the GFS! There is a very strong indication that the pattern over the United States will undergo a major reversal during the first week of June, which should put un in a trough in the West, ridge in the East scenario by somewhere between June 3 - 7. It would not surprise me to see well normal temps by the beginning of the second week of June. There is no doubt in my mind there will be some huge surprises in the coming weeks...

Record wet, now record heat, what next?

[TT-SEA]

Check out my post on the last page regarding the huge temperature swings in late May and early June of 2001.

[TT-SEA]

I cannot remember the last time the GFS model was so lost.

Every run is completely different than the previous run.

[TT-SEA]

O.K... the 00Z run of the ECMWF agrees with the GFS on a warm weekend.

And then a weak trough by the middle of next week.

I think the ETA (NAM) will be joining the other models tomorrow.

[andycottle]

I`m not really ready to believe the ETA. Not with high 850temps and very high 500MB heights! A VERY WARM Friday - Sunday is in store!

[andycottle]

Good morning folks. A very clear and sunny morning here, and another nice day is in store!

Taking a look at the latest models this morning....the EAT(NAM) is showing the warmest and nicest day to be tomorrow, and then some what cooler for saturday into sunday as a marine push comes inland to give us mainly cloudy skies, but also maybe a shower or two. BUT...I still think that a sunny and very warm seems on track as the GFS and MM5 models has 850MB temps in the 18 to near 20+C range with 500MB heights of 576DM.

In terms of the MOS models.... NGM shows mid 80`s friday and saturday and then upper 70`s for sunday with clear and sunny conditions. However, ETA is looking to be VERY warm with high of 91 friday, then back to 84 on saturday with probably mid 80`s again on sunday. Clear skies also being shown with this model. And finally...GFS has mid 80`s through the weekend with clear skies.

And for the longer range... looks like a weak zonal flow developes that gives a little cooler weather for about the first week of June or so.

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

Incredible! Nearly 80 degrees at 9:00am in Covington! That is with a dew point of 35 and east winds gusting to 25.

[andycottle]

Really snow wizzard...that warm already?! It`s only 70 here in Woodinville as of 10:05a.m. -- Andy

[andrewr]

I've got 82 here as of 10:10am and Covington ES is reporting 86. It's going to be a scorcher today.

[andycottle]

73 with sunny skies here at 10:30a.m. -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

Yeah Andy, it is over 80...We are up to about 82 now. It is due to the east wind mixing up the air and adding some compressional heating. This makes another first since I have lived in Covington. A May heat wave with an east wind. Everything that is happening this year is weird.

TT...You are correct that 2001 had some wild temperature swings, but this could be wilder. I just looked at my daily records for May 2001, and we did not have the east wind with that one. I went from 65 to 85 in two days. I think we will easily top that this time. In June the temps really tanked and went 10 degrees below normal. I also remember a freak heat wave in late 1983 and that led to a very cool July. I think we are closing in on the time that below normal temps will become dominant! Historically speaking it could be anywhere from June - Aug when that may take effect.

[andrewr]

I'm up to 85F now and the NWS is predicting even hotter temps. for the interior tomorrow.

[snow_wizzard]

I do remember a heat wave with brisk east winds in the foothills in May 1983. I just checked the Palmer records and it got to 100 degrees on May 30 with a low of 72! I remember driving through North Bend that day and it was like a blast furnace. It was warm in Seattle on that day, but the foothills were torrid! Could it happen again?

The thought of 100 degrees in May is simply unreal for this area!

By July the temperatures collapsed that year and it was a very cool and wet month indeed. Sept 83 then went on to have hard frost with well below normal temps, and then we had the wickedly cold Dec 1983. Just a liitle history there.

[TT-SEA]

Good to know.

There was a strong El Nino in 1982-83... and California got slammed.

So it is a slightly better match on the surface anyways.

[andycottle]

WARM weekend still on track

Latest 12z NAM model now showing the marine push to happen on sunday followed by clouds and a few showers. BUT, not so with GFS! Which is the model I`ll stick with untill I see other wise. GFS still on track for a very warm weekend with 850MB temps up to 18, 19+C and 500MB heights still being up around or at 576DM to which they climb even further upward to 582DM for Monday/Tuesday time frame. So would say that we`ll again have surface temps in the mid and even upper 80`s during this time. And yes, ECMWF for Sunday is agreeing on WARM weather for Sunday - Tuesday period. And the strong high pressure dome is parked right over the PNW, while a cut-off low heads into Central/Southern Cal.

In the longer range outlook, looks like the GFS and ECMWF try and set up some sort of little trough and or a weak zonal flow toward the first weekend of June. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

The 500mb map from 5/30/83 looks pretty close to what we have now.

That ridge collapsed amazingly fast.

Palmer went from 100 degrees on 5/29/83 to a HIGH of 57 degrees on 6/1/83.

Wow.

That is Midwest extreme.

[andycottle]

Hey folks...! Already up to 77 here in Woodinville as of 11:26a.m.
Am going to say my high gets up to 87 today. -- Andy

[andrewr]

My thermometer is now reading 88F! Seattle is at 82F and a station in Maple Valley is at 89F.

EDIT: The Seattle reading was taken over a half hour ago so I'm sure it is hotter than that right now.