Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

The Euro model continues to show the temps will plunge next week! This is day 7. That map suggests very brisk and cool W to NW winds at that time. That chunk of cold air should be pushed right in here! I love it!

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

[TT-SEA]

That brings normal weather.

I will love that change after this heat.

[TT-SEA]

From the Seattle NWS...


DISCUSSION...UPDATED MORTALITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL NOT BE
AN INCREASED RISK OF MORTALITY DUE TO HEAT ON FRIDAY. SUSPECT THIS
IS BECAUSE THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE SEATTLE METRO AREA.
THEREFORE...A HEAT WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

Holy crap... if we had mortality issues with 90 degrees most other places would see their entire population wiped out!!

The average high in Minneapolis is like 88 degrees in July. They do not have people dropping dead all the time in the summer!!

[snow_wizzard]

TT...If that strong W to E pressure gradient really develops and the 850mb temps drop to -1 by day 8, which this is hinting at, we would see temps 5 - 10 degrees below normal. That would be really neat! There is no reason to think it will not happen. It happened right after the 83 heat wave and in 2001.

You are correct, it is a joke to talk about this heat being enough to cause people to croak! I suppose it could get kind of marginal in the foothill areas, though. On the other hand, the humidity in the foothills will likely be about 15%.

[andycottle]

Hi folks, I`m home..!! From read that past two pages of threads from this afternoon, I see most of you are in the upper 80`s to low 90`s.

My high today got up to 87! And I was coming from work, the bank clock down in the center of Woodinville had a reading of 93. Wow...a WARM DAY today!

Currenty WARM and sunny with 87. Humidity...a very dry 19%! Take it easy in the heat folks! -- Andy

[andycottle]

Good afternoon all. A mighty WARM day out there today! And a WARM day at work too...temperature wise. Here`s some cirrus clouds I saw on my way home from work this afternoon and also a satellite pic that shows the line of clouds that I saw. -- Andy http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... .dir=/ec18

[W13]

As of 7:05 PM we have Sunny Skies with a temperature of 87 F. We topped out the day at 93 F. A perfect day, although a touch on the warm side. The heat didn't feel bad because the humidity is around 15%.

[R-Dub]

Got off work early, and played at the lake!! A very warm wind from the northwest, and temps in the mid 80's! PERFECT!!!!

Currently at 7:30PM its 80 degrees

[AnthonyC]

I was driving back from the UW, and the car thermometer read 96F!! I don't think it was that warm, but 93F is possible.

As for tomorrow, it might be hotter!! I say Seattle tops at 92F. This is very unusual for the end of May...let alone the end of July. A thermal trough to this degree is unusual for this time of year.

Saturday is starting to look nice also...80-85F will be common. No big marine push like earlier thought.

Anthony

Currently an astounding 86F!! A little too warm for my taste...but thankfully this only happens once, twice a summer.

[snow_wizzard]

I am beginning to wonder if the ETA might be picking up on something the other models aren't seeing. It is showing the lifted index to be at a midwest like -6 by late Saturday. This run still shows some thunderstorms coming up from the south Saturday evening. We shall see.

[TT-SEA]

Yes... the ETA has beautifully reverted back to a pattern that ends this stupid heat wave AND brings wonderful thunderstorms!!!

How is that for inserting personal opinion.

Anything above 85 degrees makes me anxious.

I REALLY hope that model run is right and the GFS has been TOTALLY wrong dropping the low into Mexico!!!

I already feel better. There is hope.

[PurdueWx80]

Holy crap... if we had mortality issues with 90 degrees most other places would see their entire population wiped out!!

The average high in Minneapolis is like 88 degrees in July. They do not have people dropping dead all the time in the summer!!

Yes, but many businesses, offices and homes have air conditioning in Minneapolis. From what I understand, very few places in the Pac NW do; hence, the heat warning standards are different.

[TT-SEA]

Almost every building and business in our area has air conditioning.

Many homes do not... because 90 degrees in Seattle usually comes with a dewpoint in the 40's.

[TT-SEA]

Great excerpt from the Seattle NWS discussion tonight...

THIS SUGGESTS THAT ONSHORE FLOW...WHILE NOT IMMINENT...WILL PROBABLY COMMENCE SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. THREE HOT DAYS IN A ROW IS ABOUT ALL MAY IS GOOD FOR

[AnthonyC]

Holy crap, it's hotter than heck in my house tonight!! I don't remember the last time it was this hot...esp. this late at night. I have 81F on my outdoor thermometer...ridiculous for 10pm at night.

Tomorrow should be similar to today...maybe a little hotter/cooler depending on the track/strength of the thermal trough. There are already signs of onshore flow on the central Oregon coast...a little sooner than expected. Most places should top the 90-degree mark though.

You gotta love these heatwaves in Seattle!! People make 90F sound like 110F+!!! Just go down to Phoenix or Las Vegas...they have this crap eight months out of the year.

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

That is why I live in Seattle and not in Las Vegas or Phoenix!!

This heat wave will end by Saturday... gradually cooling down into the 70's by Sunday or Monday.

The next 10 days after that look awesome with weak zonal flow... a few showers... lots of sun... and temperatures in the upper 60's rather than in the 90's.

Perfect.

[snow_wizzard]

Unbelievable! It is still 77 degrees here at 11:30pm! Tomorrow is going to be a blast furnace in the foothills...hot, bone dry air.

I still say we will go down into the 50s, for highs, next week. Every model is showing a very strong surface high straight to the west of us, with profoundly strong onshore flow. That type of situatiuon allows cold air to rotate down from the northern Gulf of Alaska, due to the clockwise rotation of the air around the surface high. The key is in the surface maps, not the upper air maps on this! It is going to feel COLD after this!

By the way...if the wind does not quit tonight, our low will be 70+. That will be the first time I have ever seen that. The strangeness just keeps coming at us! Can you imagine a daily average over 80 in May. Wow! I am telling everyone to expect highly unusual weather to continue for the remainder of the year. This one is going to throw some amazing curve balls at us. I can still remember 1983. Years like that just burn themselves into your mind. Blast furnace heat in May, a cold wet July, heavy frost in September, ice floating down the Snoqualmie in December...

[andycottle]

Good evening all! Quite a nice night outside tonight! Very mild to. My high today got up to 88 and not 87 like mentioned earlier. Pretty WARM I say....pretty darn warm. And with clear skies and lots of sun, though there were a few wisps of cirrus clouds in very spotty areas of the sky late this afternoon.

Ok...

Now on to the models.

Latest ETA(NAM) is showing the warmest weather to happen tomorrow and saturday, and then a marine push for late saturday into sunday - Tuesday time frame that could bring low clouds, some what cooler temps, and possibly a few showers. However, I will stick with the GFS and MM5 models as they show 850MB Temps of around or at 18+C with 500MB heights of near 576DM over the weekend. This in turn will keep any marine clouds and showers well away from us as strong high pressure will be still be in place over our region. Clear and sunny skies should prevail over the weekend! ECMWF also has this nice warm weather lasting into Monday, but turning cooler by mid-week next week as a deep 564DM trough of low pressure moves in the PNW and then over the central/upper Western U.S mountain region. And GFS agrees with that idea, and also the possiblity of a weak zonal flow setting up toward the frist weekend of June. If this is correct, then we could be waking up to cloudy skies with maybe some morning drizzle.

In terms of actuall forecasted temps this weekend.... ETA-MOS at Seattle has a high of 92 Saturday with high of 84 Sunday along with mostly clear skies both days. NGM-MOS also quite warm and showing 90 and 84 with clear skies, while GFS-MOS has low-mid 80`s, but still a mostly clear sky.

So over all....a nice, sunny and spectacular weekend shaping up indeed! And just as a word of caution here... please take it easy and drink plenty of liquids if doing any kind of hard work outside during this little mini heat wave.

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard...

I think really strong westerly flow would allow for lots of sunshine downwind from the Olympic Mountains. Particularly in June.

Sunshine in June means 60's at a minimum.

[andycottle]

Good morning all.

Taking a look at the latest models... EAT(NAM) is showing one more nice day tomorrow, before the marine push comes in late saturday into sunday morning to give clouds, cooler temps, and possibly some showers for the sunday period. However, GFS and MM5 models are still locked in for a nice but WARM weekend as strong high pressure will be in place with a 925MB temp of 22+C and 850MB temp of 18 to 20+C. And 500MB heights will be at or near 576DM. Canadain Operational Model also agrees with the high pressure being in place.

As for next week, looks like we get into somewhat of a zonal flow starting Tuesday/Wednesday and lasting into first weekend of June. This means we can expect some morning clouds with maybe a few showers and maybe some afternoon clearing. Temps should be cooler....as in around the mid 60`s.

-- Andy