Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TheProfessor]

9z SREF continues to trend wetter for DFW tonight, it also now has DFW going below freezing shortly after 6 PM Thursday and staying below freezing thru 6 PM Friday.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Maybe I saw wrong but it looks like the 12 UTC NAM has lost the majority of the snow in the metroplex. Looks to only be around an inch now.

No, its still there....actually has the trowel setting up right through Dallas...4-5 inch amounts

Enjoy it! Hopefully my area gets in on a little of the fun.

[Snowman67]

What does that have to do with yesterday's precipitation? We were discussing what was observed near Huntsville yesterday.

Uh - You quoted the post I made in response to the discussion last evening regarding the reported snow in Huntsville. My response was directly related to that post. So I would say it had everything to do with it. I shared an experience that I had where it snowed when the soundings did not support it.

But the thread discussion was of yesterday's precipitation, even though you mentioned snow from 2 years ago. My main point is that I do not think that the vertical temperature profiles from the models were wrong. In fact, they were proven right by the A&M sounding. One cannot conclude that because "snow" was observed that the models were wrong. Snow grains can form in a much shallower cold air layer with a warm nose above, as was the case yesterday in Huntsville. In some cases, the grains will clump together and appear to be larger snowflakes, which need a much deeper layer of cold air. The precip was a type of snow, but its presence didn't mean that the models were wrong and/or that you cannot trust the models.

The situation I commented on was not from 2 years ago, it was actually further back than that. I am not arguing your point about yesterday and if you go back and read my post you will see that I did not conclude that the models/soundings were incorrect about yesterday's event. I simply related an experience where the sounding showed that the temp profile did not support snow, and it snowed -huge heavy wet snowflakes. It was my Met friend who told me the sounding was not accurate. All I know is that it snowed. SINCE my post was included in the chain of messages, I simply responded, because I don't believe that your explanation for yesterday's event, explains what I experienced.

[hriverajr]

I'm hoping for Portastorm the upper low keeps diving south.

[orangeblood]

Maybe I saw wrong but it looks like the 12 UTC NAM has lost the majority of the snow in the metroplex. Looks to only be around an inch now.

No, its still there....actually has the trowel setting up right through Dallas...4-5 inch amounts

Enjoy it! Hopefully my area gets in on a little of the fun.

Your area should see flakes late Thursday into Friday...will be plenty cold enough maybe even the coldest 24 hour period of the winter but still a big question mark on moisture. Thickness levels indicate the potential for pretty high ratio snow amounts so you might not need a lot to get accumulations!!

[Ntxw]

GFS continues to cave, it has not had a very good run up here during this stretch. I think FW is in good standing with their watches and advisories.

[orangeblood]

GFS continues to cave, it has not had a very good run up here during this stretch. I think FW is in good standing with their watches and advisories.

Yep but it's more in line now with the Ukmet, Canadian and Euro with a further south heavy snow axis, which appear somewhere in between the Metroplex and Waco. They probably should consider adding to the WSW further south

[Tammie]

GFS continues to cave, it has not had a very good run up here during this stretch. I think FW is in good standing with their watches and advisories.

"Cave" as in coming into agreement with the NAM, or "cave" losing the system?

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV finally has come in line, shows 1-3 inches for me tomorrow. I will definitely spend a good amount of time studying the models today as this will be a very tricky forecast. I think there will be a wide swath of an inch plus snow along I-20, but there easily could be some 6"+ amounts where the heavy stuff sets up over NE TX.

[Tejas89]

FWD has an *excellent* a.m. discussion and why they're not completely buying the GFS.

Graphic shows Dallas in the middle of the 2-4" bullseye. Just wait and see now. Lucy loves these tilting ULL's.

[Kelarie]

NWS Shreveport just upgraded to Winter Storm Warning.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>004-006-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-250000-
/O.UPG.KSHV.WS.A.0003.150225T0600Z-150226T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KSHV.WS.W.0004.150225T0600Z-150226T0000Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-UNION LA-
MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-
UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...FARMERVILLE...
IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...
DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...JEFFERSON...TYLER...
LONGVIEW...MARSHALL
1000 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW UP TO 4 INCHES...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* EVENT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER FROM SLEET
TO SNOW. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...THE WINTER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACT...IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY ELEVATED AND EXPOSED SURFACES INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. IF THE SNOW COMES DOWN QUICKLY ENOUGH...THEN SURFACE STREETS WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

[Tcu101]

SHV has put out warning already , wonder when FW will hoist their warnings being the event would happen in DFW before SHV?

[gboudx]

SHV has put out warning already , wonder when FW will hoist their warnings being the even would happen in DFW before SHV?

They mentioned they would probably wait until the afternoon package. They indicated they want to see new soundings and model data before making that declaration.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is coming in, indicating a narrow band of up to 1.5" of snow south of D-FW and extending northeastward where it increases to around 3" near Longview. The vertical temperature profile would support snow.

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV has put out warning already , wonder when FW will hoist their warnings being the even would happen in DFW before SHV?

They mentioned they would probably wait until the afternoon package. They indicated they want to see new soundings and model data before making that declaration.

I do not blame them for waiting as conditions are a bit more questionable especially in the western areas of FWD's watch area. SHV is much more of a reactionary office while FWD is patient but prompt when needed. This morning I have gone from only rain in my forecast to a winter storm warning. I wonder how many times my area has seen two different winter storm warnings in three days.

[Ntxw]

FWD has an *excellent* a.m. discussion and why they're not completely buying the GFS.

Graphic shows Dallas in the middle of the 2-4" bullseye. Just wait and see now. Lucy loves these tilting ULL's.

Lucy is in the ER getting treatment for her injuries after Charlie kicked the ball.

And cave as in it has not done well and been wrong, following other guidance.

[wxman57]

FWD has an *excellent* a.m. discussion and why they're not completely buying the GFS.

Graphic shows Dallas in the middle of the 2-4" bullseye. Just wait and see now. Lucy loves these tilting ULL's.

Lucy is in the ER getting treatment for her injuries after Charlie kicked the ball.

And cave as in it has not done well and been wrong, following other guidance.

I'd argue that the ball wasn't kicked yet, as there was no measurable snow across NE Texas. Sleet doesn't (shouldn't) count. Don't lower your standards!

[Texas Snowman]

Of course you would.

[Ralph's Weather]

I'd argue that the ball wasn't kicked yet, as there was no measurable snow across NE Texas. Sleet doesn't (shouldn't) count. Don't lower your standards!

OK, well it will be kicked tonight then. Yesterday was just the warm up kick.

[wxman57]

I'd argue that the ball wasn't kicked yet, as there was no measurable snow across NE Texas. Sleet doesn't (shouldn't) count. Don't lower your standards!

OK, well it will be kicked tonight then. Yesterday was just the warm up kick.

Yes, tonight will be the chance for the football to finally be kicked. After the kick can I have some warm weather back? Euro looks warm with temps near 80 all next week. GFS is trending that way, too (at least through 6z).