Texas Winter 2024-2025

[TomballEd]

HGX
The big story during the long term is the much anticipated arctic
front over the weekend and subsequent chance of wintry precip
early next week. I gotta say, I was hoping to come into this night
shift with a growing data consensus. Unfortunately, this was not
the case. You have models like the deterministic GFS which decided
to come in less cold and with lower PoPs. Then you have models
like the deterministic ECMWF which is technically drier and
indicating much lower QPF while also trending towards a more
favorable thermodynamic profile for snow (even at the coast). The
CMC, per usual, shows significant ice and snow across the region
while the ICON shows a significant Deep South snow from portions
of SE TX to the Florida Panhandle. With deterministic guidance
trending all over the place, I attempted to find clarity among the
ensembles. But the wintry precip picture is quite murky on the
ensemble side as well.

[MississippiWx]

6z Euro has gone completely to the GFS. No storm at all. Wow. A gut punch for sure to snow lovers.

[Portastorm]

HGX
The big story during the long term is the much anticipated arctic
front over the weekend and subsequent chance of wintry precip
early next week. I gotta say, I was hoping to come into this night
shift with a growing data consensus. Unfortunately, this was not
the case. You have models like the deterministic GFS which decided
to come in less cold and with lower PoPs. Then you have models
like the deterministic ECMWF which is technically drier and
indicating much lower QPF while also trending towards a more
favorable thermodynamic profile for snow (even at the coast). The
CMC, per usual, shows significant ice and snow across the region
while the ICON shows a significant Deep South snow from portions
of SE TX to the Florida Panhandle. With deterministic guidance
trending all over the place, I attempted to find clarity among the
ensembles. But the wintry precip picture is quite murky on the
ensemble side as well.

Yes the AFD out of NWS Houston/Galveston this morning is excellent!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=HGX&issuedby=HGX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[HockeyTx82]

My MSN weather now looks like a reasonable forecast for mid January. A little below normal but nothing pipebusting.

[Gotwood]

After looking though the dew points it doesn’t seem the models are buying “Siberian” air.

[cajungal]

After having this happen 2 weeks in a row to me, is just a punch in the gut. It has been 7 years. I am starting to hate living on the gulf coast. Wish I was on a position to move.

[wxman57]

There is certainly a big difference in the overnight models. They're wildly divergent after Wednesday morning. Each model is handling the multiple passing short-waves differently. All (except Canadian) show a significant warm-up on Wednesday. Same thing for LCH and New Orleans area. There may be at least a couple of precip times. One Tue-Wed and one Thu-Fri, but in the above-freezing air.

GFS is now completely dry for Texas. No snow, no ZR. EC has ZR for the Lower Rio Grande Valley, but nowhere else. However, it has 2-4" snow from north of CRP all across S. LA to Mobile. It's the other end of the spectrum. Canadian remains on another spectrum, completely. No snow south of Waco but a major freezing rain/sleet event from Austin to Houston and all across the southern half of LA to northern Florida.

So much for a building consensus. The problem is that each model is handling next week's fast-moving short waves differently. Perhaps they'll get a grip on it by the weekend.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW LONG RANGE AFD

An arctic front will surge south through all of North and Central
Texas Friday night, bringing much colder weather for the holiday
weekend into next week. Confidence is still high that dangerously
cold weather will be in place for multiple days beginning Saturday
night, with lows in the teens and 20s along with wind chills in
the single digits and teens. A Cold Weather Advisory will likely
be needed at some point starting sometime this weekend. It is
possible that temperatures do not climb above freezing in some
locations for a few days, particularly Monday and Tuesday
following a reinforcing shot of arctic air. On Monday for
instance, areas along and north of Highway 380 and along/west of
I-35 have the highest probability of max temperature at or below
32 (around 70-80%). Either way, high temperatures will remain in
the 30s areawide Sunday through Tuesday, which even for January
is 20 degrees below normal.

As important as all of that is, the more frequently asked
question focuses on winter precipitation probabilities and the
potential for travel impacts. Anytime North and Central Texas
becomes enveloped in an airmass this cold, even modest amounts of
available moisture can produce enough light precipitation to cause
impacts. The upper level feature of interest at this juncture
continues to be a positive-tilt shortwave, which is progged to
drop southeast around the southwest flank of a longwave trough
entrenched over the center of the CONUS at the start of next week.
Model guidance has been struggling with consistency regarding the
strength of the isentropic lift out ahead of the shortwave and
amount of available moisture. If the ascent is strong enough, the
upper level system typically can find enough moisture to produce
precip, and consequently higher moisture content can often
overcome weak lift. Due to a lack of any significant changes in
guidance since yesterday, will stick somewhat close to persistence
for this forecast package, indicating a chance of light snow along
with minor to no accumulations.

One thing to note is that last night`s National Blended Model has
increased POPs compared to previous runs, perhaps attributed to
slightly more aggressive (with QPF) ECMWF members. Will therefore
increase POPs slightly, and extend the slight chance POPs farther
north to near the Red River, both based on the latest NBM numbers.
That being said, due to the presence of such a dry airmass,
accumulations will be kept in the "minor to none" category for
now. There continues to be a lot of uncertainty regarding QPF,
however, so the forecast could still shift to higher accumulations
(or none) depending on how the upstream shortwave evolves. Much
more will become known over the weekend when better resolution
model guidance comes into play. Whatever the case, temperatures
should finally start to modify during the latter half of next week
as the longwave trough weakens and shifts east. Temperatures may
even approach near-normal values by Thursday or Friday of next
week.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looking at overnight models, everything rides on how much the trough digs early next week. Based on recent systems I side with more digging as seen in Canadian and ICON though with both GFS and Euro being progressive it gives me hesitance. Euro flipping to progressive seems out of place so I will wait to see what 12Z trends are before making a first call on the forecast.

[TomballEd]

With the 6Z Euro completely dry for most of the state and the GFS being too warm in most of the state, I think the question now is which no/low snowfall and ice mode will verify. Too dry or too warm.

I hate to be a pessimist, but the trends aren't good. I know GFS handles shallow cold airmasses poorly, but it has to be way off on 2m temperature forecast for that rain to be freezing/frozen.

Anyone have access to Euro ensembles for 6Z?

[orangeblood]

There is certainly a big difference in the overnight models. They're wildly divergent after Wednesday morning. Each model is handling the multiple passing short-waves differently. All (except Canadian) show a significant warm-up on Wednesday. Same thing for LCH and New Orleans area. There may be at least a couple of precip times. One Tue-Wed and one Thu-Fri, but in the above-freezing air.

GFS is now completely dry for Texas. No snow, no ZR. EC has ZR for the Lower Rio Grande Valley, but nowhere else. However, it has 2-4" snow from north of CRP all across S. LA to Mobile. It's the other end of the spectrum. Canadian remains on another spectrum, completely. No snow south of Waco but a major freezing rain/sleet event from Austin to Houston and all across the southern half of LA to northern Florida.

So much for a building consensus. The problem is that each model is handling next week's fast-moving short waves differently. Perhaps they'll get a grip on it by the weekend.

Yep, still no clarity after last night's model runs....obviously a really difficult pattern for models to handle!!

[Tireman4]

There is certainly a big difference in the overnight models. They're wildly divergent after Wednesday morning. Each model is handling the multiple passing short-waves differently. All (except Canadian) show a significant warm-up on Wednesday. Same thing for LCH and New Orleans area. There may be at least a couple of precip times. One Tue-Wed and one Thu-Fri, but in the above-freezing air.

GFS is now completely dry for Texas. No snow, no ZR. EC has ZR for the Lower Rio Grande Valley, but nowhere else. However, it has 2-4" snow from north of CRP all across S. LA to Mobile. It's the other end of the spectrum. Canadian remains on another spectrum, completely. No snow south of Waco but a major freezing rain/sleet event from Austin to Houston and all across the southern half of LA to northern Florida.

So much for a building consensus. The problem is that each model is handling next week's fast-moving short waves differently. Perhaps they'll get a grip on it by the weekend.

I agree with all you stated. I am thinking Sunday, even Sunday evening before you get any real handle on things. Just my thoughts.

[orangeblood]

Looking at overnight models, everything rides on how much the trough digs early next week. Based on recent systems I side with more digging as seen in Canadian and ICON though with both GFS and Euro being progressive it gives me hesitance. Euro flipping to progressive seems out of place so I will wait to see what 12Z trends are before making a first call on the forecast.

Euro went a little more progressive but GEFS is now trending back towards what the Euro was showing yesterday ....new inputs on 12Z should, hopefully, help clarify the direction this is going in

[Tammie]

From Joe Bastardi on Twitter:

While brutal cold invades, models backing down on major snow and ice in the south Do not trust it as yesterday they tried to kill DC snow (GFS never had it) and did not bite on that

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

Key Messages:

- Strong Arctic surge will push into the central U.S. this weekend,
reaching and impacting deep South Texas and the RGV Sunday through
next week.

- The highest threat for overnight freezes for portions of the CWA
will be Monday night (Tuesday morning) and Tuesday night
(Wednesday morning).

Models and ensembles continue to show a very amplified mean
pattern consisting of a deep trough from northeastern Canada
through the lower 48 and an eastern Pacific ridge extending well
north (see McFarland Signature, 1976). Thus, forecast confidence
remains high in Arctic air dropping south over the central U.S.
this weekend and expanding south (into the RGV) through early next
week. The CPC 6-10 day temp outlook projects a high (70 to 90%)
chance of below normal temps for next week (Jan 21-25), some of
which could be 15 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of
year.

[orangeblood]

Here's the current snow output on several models for next week

GEFS


GEPS


Euro ENS


NBM

[Tireman4]

NWS Houston
@NWSHouston
7:05 AM
Chance of Hard Freeze remains high north of I-10 Tuesday/Wednesday morning.

Continue to monitor the chance of frozen precipitation late Monday into Tuesday.

Cold weather is a certainty.

Frozen precipitation is more uncertain.

#HOUwx #GLSwx #BCSwx #TXwx

[Iceresistance]

There is certainly a big difference in the overnight models. They're wildly divergent after Wednesday morning. Each model is handling the multiple passing short-waves differently. All (except Canadian) show a significant warm-up on Wednesday. Same thing for LCH and New Orleans area. There may be at least a couple of precip times. One Tue-Wed and one Thu-Fri, but in the above-freezing air.

GFS is now completely dry for Texas. No snow, no ZR. EC has ZR for the Lower Rio Grande Valley, but nowhere else. However, it has 2-4" snow from north of CRP all across S. LA to Mobile. It's the other end of the spectrum. Canadian remains on another spectrum, completely. No snow south of Waco but a major freezing rain/sleet event from Austin to Houston and all across the southern half of LA to northern Florida.

So much for a building consensus. The problem is that each model is handling next week's fast-moving short waves differently. Perhaps they'll get a grip on it by the weekend.

Yeah. I've noticed the extreme uncertainty with the models when it comes for moisture

All we know for sure is that it's going to be very cold

[Ntxw]

While we wait on 12z models...DFW snuck in another freeze this morning. That's now 13 freezes for this month (consecutive at that) at the airport. This month alone will exceed all of last winter once done.

[Iceresistance]

Watch the Arctic HP on this WPC North America map

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SeLX8.png