Texas Winter 2014-2015

[orangeblood]

the smart thing to do is probably go with a blend of the two, which is exactly what they're doing at this time

[wxman57]

:uarrow: the smart thing to do is probably go with a blend of the two, which is exactly what they're doing at this time

The model soundings do support snow in this case. Previous instances where the model had a large swath of snow across Texas actually had well above-freezing air aloft. Not this time.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: the smart thing to do is probably go with a blend of the two, which is exactly what they're doing at this time

The model soundings do support snow in this case. Previous instances where the model had a large swath of snow across Texas actually had well above-freezing air aloft. Not this time.

Also, with the already freezing ground temps, anything that does fall should accumulate fairly quickly!

[Tcu101]

:uarrow: the smart thing to do is probably go with a blend of the two, which is exactly what they're doing at this time

Would this put the Winter Storm Watch more into a Winter Weather Adv?

[dhweather]

:uarrow: the smart thing to do is probably go with a blend of the two, which is exactly what they're doing at this time

Would this put the Winter Storm Watch more into a Winter Weather Adv?

As Cavanaugh noted in his AFD this morning, the criteria for a Winter Storm Warning where they expect only snow is 4" of accumulation. Right now they are predicting 2-4" , so I do not know if there will be an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning, or if they will leave it as a Winter Storm Watch, or change it to a Winter Weather Advisory.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: the smart thing to do is probably go with a blend of the two, which is exactly what they're doing at this time

Would this put the Winter Storm Watch more into a Winter Weather Adv?

Possibly, some of the fringe counties to the north might not reach warning criteria if the NAM shifts south

[dhweather]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1158 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN CLEARING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FROM NW TO SE
THIS MORNING AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CIGS AT WACO WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER LIFT/SCATTER
OUT BUT WILL HAVE THEM VFR BY 22Z.

MAIN CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS. PRECIP WILL
START TO LIGHT UP THE RADARS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BY 8Z/2AM. RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX TO AND/OR CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY 10Z/4AM WHEN THE COLUMN COOLS DUE TO EVAPORATION AND
DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A LARGE
NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF WITH MOST SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGESTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF METROPLEX
TAF SITES. THE HI-RES AND VARIOUS WRF MODELS ARE UNANIMOUSLY
FARTHER NORTH WITH PRECIP...LIKELY HANDLING THE MESOSCALE WRAP-
AROUND BANDING BETTER. WE WILL SIDE WITH THE LATTER GROUP OF THE
MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST...AND WILL SHOW A PERIOD OF SNOW FROM
11Z/5AM TO 15Z/9AM AT METROPLEX TAF SITES. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW REDUCING VSBY TO 1/2SM OR LESS EXISTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THIS POINT. THUS WILL SHOW A PROB30 GROUP FROM
12Z/6AM TO 14Z/8AM AS THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR
SUCH ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS EVENING
AND LIKELY NOT FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING UNTIL AFTER SNOW
STARTS FALLING. ALL PRECIP WILL END BY MID-MORNING WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY QUITE A BIT DUE TO THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF
THE BANDING...BUT METROPLEX AIRPORTS SHOULD PROBABLY PREPARE FOR
WORST CASE SCENARIO OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WET SLUSHY SNOW...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY.

AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR DFW WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO
ADDRESS THE SNOW POTENTIAL.

TR.92

&&

[TheProfessor]

This is the time period where short range models are usually the best, so it doesn't surprise me that they are leaning on those right now.

[orangeblood]

Euro now picking up on mesoscale banding feature, further south than NAM with heaviest axis in between DFW and Hillsboro. Don't be surprised with the Watch/Warning area to shift south this afternoon

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow: the smart thing to do is probably go with a blend of the two, which is exactly what they're doing at this time

The model soundings do support snow in this case. Previous instances where the model had a large swath of snow across Texas actually had well above-freezing air aloft. Not this time.

Has the cold air advection the past few days been a player in cooling down the temperatures aloft to be more conducive for snowfall, at least in the DFW area? If only the Austin metro area could be so lucky. Not expecting any miracles down this way;.

[wxman57]

I thought you might like to see what the 12Z ECMWF is forecasting snow-wise across Texas so I made a screenshot from my workstation. This is 24-hr snowfall from 9pm this evening through 9pm tomorrow evening. The blue dots are major Texas cities. Note that Austin and San Antonio are outside of the snow field (sorry, Portastorm).

[wxman57]

Has the cold air advection the past few days been a player in cooling down the temperatures aloft to be more conducive for snowfall, at least in the DFW area? If only the Austin metro area could be so lucky. Not expecting any miracles down this way;.

The passing of the upper trof/low will bring lower temperatures aloft tonight across Texas. Where there's moisture, there will likely be snow. As for Austin, the temperatures aloft still may not be cold enough, and the moisture will not likely be there.

[Wntrwthrguy]

I thought you might like to see what the 12Z ECMWF is forecasting snow-wise across Texas so I made a screenshot from my workstation. This is 24-hr snowfall from 9pm this evening through 9pm tomorrow evening. The blue dots are major Texas cities. Note that Austin and San Antonio are outside of the snow field (sorry, Portastorm).

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ECsnow.JPG

So close to Williamson county, but yet, so far away. I see EWX has lowered high temps today for my area to 36.

Will the thermal profile in the Round Rock/Pflugerville area not be cold enough for snow?

[wxman57]

So close to Williamson county, but yet, so far away. I see EWX has lowered high temps today for my area to 36.

Will the thermal profile in the Round Rock/Pflugerville area not be cold enough for snow?

Not quite - maybe just barely cold enough briefly tomorrow morning - but there's very little moisture overhead then.

[ndale]

If the snowfield does not reache Williamson County then why did EWX show a possibility of rain snow mix for Georgetown?

[gboudx]

Chris Hebert from Impact Weather solved the mystery:

"Looking at the vertical temperature profile, it doesn’t support snow as we normally think of snow. But it does support something similar – snow grains. Snow grains are tiny ice crystals (not snow “flakes”) that can form within low stratus clouds in that shallow sub-freezing layer above Huntsville. Individual snow grains typically measure <1mm in size, smaller than sleet. However, I imagine that as snow grains collide with each other on the way down they can grow into larger clusters that give the appearance of large snowflakes."

To see video of the "snow grains" click here: http://abc13.co/1LCsrei

LOL, you gonna believe that old geezer?

[Texas Snowman]

Looks like the Red River Valley in North Central Texas may be on the outside looking in. Good luck to everyone in that I-20 and I-30 corridor.

[Brent]

I'm worried about missing to the south and east now LOL

I have a love-hate relationship with cold core lows!

[dhweather]

The gradient over Rockwall county is impressive, it shows you how much impact a difference of even 12 miles can have.

[Ralph's Weather]

That Euro map looks about as good as a global gets as far as short range snow. 5+ inches at my place.