Texas Winter 2017-2018

[utweather]

GFS is basically a dusting in Dallas

We are going to get more than a dusting.

GFS shows 2" snow for Austin now

Ah nice! Definitely hoping for more snow than freezing rain. Sleet will be cool to hear also. Haven't heard that in a while, similiar to hail I suppose, I can't remember, lol. If the temps don't rebound much on Wednesday, Thursday's event will just pile it on

[SnowintheFalls]

The NWS took away our 20% chance of snow. I was really banking on that delivering! Haha. It’s no big deal, we will get some snow some other time. At least it’s not above average temps.

As frustrating as it has been, winter is not over yet so our snowstorm will come Yukon!

[WeatherDuck]

We are going to get more than a dusting.

GFS shows 2" snow for Austin now

Ah nice! Definitely hoping for more snow than freezing rain. Sleet will be cool to hear also. Haven't heard that in a while, similiar to hail I suppose, I can't remember, lol. If the temps don't rebound much on Wednesday, Thursday's event will just pile it on

With so much focus on Tuesday, I haven't been paying that much attention to the Thursday event.

Currently, how does the Austin area look to be impacted on Thursday?

[dhweather]

Looking like it's gonna be yet another bust for DFW. Would kill to get half an inch...

Well, if we had a CAT 5 IN THE GULF (tm) , then we would have some moisture to work with.


Seriously, It is so hard to get frozen precip south of the Red River. You have to have cold air, which for us typically comes in with arctic blasts, which are unfortunately bitterly dry airmasses. Now throw in the fact we are in a drought, we will be lucky to see anything frozen or not.

[iorange55]

:uarrow: It hasn't happened yet to be a bust.

18z GEFS looks like it actually bumped up totals for DFW. Maybe up to 0.2", this will be a hair splitter! The difference between sub 0.1" to 0.2" will be pretty big given this setup. Dusting vs. 3"!

I think we might see a slight trend back to more moisture in the DFW area during tonight’s runs. It could be considered -removed-, but the 18z NAM looked like it was trying to hint at it, plus what you mentioned.

...we’ll see.

[gpsnowman]

The latest graphic from NWS Fort Worth has the 1-2 inch zone only a county away from DFW. Amounts could sway either way in the next 20 hours so hope is not lost!!!!!

[downsouthman1]

GFS shows 2" snow for Austin now

Ah nice! Definitely hoping for more snow than freezing rain. Sleet will be cool to hear also. Haven't heard that in a while, similiar to hail I suppose, I can't remember, lol. If the temps don't rebound much on Wednesday, Thursday's event will just pile it on

With so much focus on Tuesday, I haven't been paying that much attention to the Thursday event.

Currently, how does the Austin area look to be impacted on Thursday?

Currently, the model consensus puts the bulk of precip southwest of Austin Thursday.

[KeriCarter]

The NWS took away our 20% chance of snow. I was really banking on that delivering! Haha. It’s no big deal, we will get some snow some other time. At least it’s not above average temps.

We are in Texarkana and the NWS has given us snow and then taken it away a couple of times in the last 24 hours. There’s always hope. TWC says it’s not going to snow here at all the last time I looked. Glad I don’t put too much stock in TWC.

[bubba hotep]

18z RGEM looks good

[JayDT]

The latest graphic from NWS Fort Worth has the 1-2 inch zone only a county away from DFW. Amounts could sway either way in the next 20 hours so hope is not lost!!!!!

Well then I guess for once it might help just a bit that i live in southern Dallas County lol

[JayDT]

18z RGEM looks good

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_54.png

Honestly I’d be good with this... Not for the whole season, but for now that would do

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Longview-Tyler are the consensus winners on the models. That’s rare as they usually are on the lighter side versus Dallas.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: It hasn't happened yet to be a bust.

18z GEFS looks like it actually bumped up totals for DFW. Maybe up to 0.2", this will be a hair splitter! The difference between sub 0.1" to 0.2" will be pretty big given this setup. Dusting vs. 3"!

In February 2014 (13/14 winter) there was an event with extremely low qpf. We were talking hundredths of an inch. The forums here we were clipping out soundings of beautiful dendritic growth profiles and it panned out. This series of events became notorious here because it was one of the rare times we beat Steve McCauley's stat method

[orangeblood]

Looking over the meso short-range models.....they aren't nearly as strong with the Arctic HP, something to track as we get closer

[losf1981]

The NWS took away our 20% chance of snow. I was really banking on that delivering! Haha. It’s no big deal, we will get some snow some other time. At least it’s not above average temps.

As frustrating as it has been, winter is not over yet so our snowstorm will come Yukon!

Pretty frustrating for us snow lovers here in Wichita Falls

[Ntxw]

Current surface analysis of North America. Sprawling 1047mb high on the border of Alberta and Saskatchewan Canada. Front is making it's way through northern plains. What's even more baffling is the EPO is positive-neutral. There is no severe EPO with this episode of Arctic air. The NAO is positive, the AO is positive. PNA is positive going negative. On a teleconnection front you would never guess an arctic outbreak is about to occur. This is simply having dense, cold air sitting in Canada and bullying it's way through.




Daily EPO

Code: Select all

2017 12 25 -136.92
2017 12 26 -142.95
2017 12 27  -73.16
2017 12 28  -23.59
2017 12 29  -27.90
2017 12 30  -22.89
2017 12 31  -75.75
2018 01 01  -80.24
2018 01 02  -78.47
2018 01 03 -108.34
2018 01 04 -112.18
2018 01 05  -53.59
2018 01 06   32.92
2018 01 07    5.21
2018 01 08  -33.81
2018 01 09   42.00
2018 01 10   53.01
2018 01 11   62.66
2018 01 12   27.16

[orangeblood]

Global Models are currently over-estimating the strength of that HP, could have big implications over the next few runs if they trend down to it

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow: Global Models are currently over-estimating the strength of that HP, could have big implications over the next few runs if they trend down to it

Yeah it could lead to more moisture across the state.

[Ralph's Weather]

I see no reason to be discouraged. Nothing has significantly changed in the models. Still looking at up to an inch for DFW maybe more on the east side. 1 to 3 inches for E TX with potential for a bit more. Accumulating sleet and snow likely from Central TX through Deep E TX. As orangeblood and STS said the globals may be overdone on the high so moisture could be more prevalent north of I20 than they show.

[Ntxw]

Hard to believe we are now near 24 hours of the first flakes to fall in Texas. The angst will only get worse!

0z suite coming shortly