Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

Canadian looks very promising, with the system being faster and dumping more precip.

Good catch. Notice what follows quickly from the N. Trends...

[txtiff]

I think they're excepting a volcano to erupt spreading hot lava all over the streets cause not only the snow to melt, but the entire city as well.

No, No, No, you have it all wrong. Have you guys forgotten about the HUGE umbrella that hangs over us all winter? Blocking only the snow of course

nope havent forgot....if it rains again...my backyard is gonna float away...still have standing water 3" deep.... Pia when you have 3 dogs! talk about mud....shakes head...

I know what you mean....I have five dogs. I am actually floating around in my yard as I type this.

[orangeblood]

Canadian looks very promising, with the system being faster and dumping more precip.

Good catch. Notice what follows quickly from the N. Trends...

Yep, looks like it might get even colder starting early next week. The Canadian looks very similar to the UKMET for next weeks pattern, with a much stronger high coming into the central US.

[HockeyTx82]

Goodnight to everyone, keep the good vibes and news rolling in. Hope to wake up and read some good things.

[orangeblood]

If the Canadian and UKMET were to be believed, a big snow storm for North Texas standards Would begin starting Thursday morning.

[Ntxw]

If the Canadian and UKMET were to be believed, a big snow storm for North Texas standards Would begin starting Thursday morning.

The trend tonight has been wetter and north, lets hope it continues. Also keep the temperature profiles down too and we're set to go.

[DougNTexas]

I also hope I wake up to a much better chance of snow in N Texas like I did 2 days ago. Yesterday was a downer.

[Ntxw]

EC is further north and wetter even into southern Oklahoma. Temps looks cold enough from Waco to Tyler north. 0z Nam has also come in colder as expected with the trend (though still doesn't have accumulating snow?). Better I guess.

[funster]

Plenty of moisture to work with but too warm says NWS Fort Worth. If it ends up colder than they think it could be a different story...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
351 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL TROFS PERSISTS
ACROSS TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS
CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AMPLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SPREADING OVER NORTH TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM PROVIDING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
TODAY KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AGAIN.

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING NORTHEAST TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AND WITH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 90-100 PERCENT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THERMAL PROFILES AND THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR IN THE SOUTHEAST
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS
TEMPERATURE VALUES ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND THICK CLOUD
COVER...RESULTING IN A DIURNAL TREND ON AVERAGE OF ONLY 4-5
DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE THERMAL PROFILE FROM
ABOUT 950-750 MB WILL BE HUGGING THE 0 DEGREE CELSIUS LINE /WHILE
THE SURFACE REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING/. THIS LAYER OF AIR IS COLD AND
MOIST ENOUGH FOR SNOW PRODUCTION BUT IF IT CAN COOL A FEW MORE
DEGREES...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW OR ALL SNOW WOULD INCREASE.
ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THAT THERMAL LAYER WARMS A FEW
DEGREES...ALL RAIN WOULD LIKELY BE FAVORED. BUT FOR NOW...A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS SUFFICIENT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A
HALF INCH TO 1 INCH NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO HILLSBORO TO
ATHENS...AND LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE. GIVEN THE FORECASTED
CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE A WET
SNOW KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS WELL BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...
A SHIFT IN THE THERMAL PROFILE TO THE COLDER SIDE COULD RESULT IN
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

THE CURRENT FORECASTED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH OR LESS
/ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH RAIN/ DO NOT WARRANT ANY WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME BUT THE TYPICAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS CAN
STILL BE EXPECTED. OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY ROADS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE
EVENT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1 INCH WITH THE HIGHEST
LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WITH THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX STILL MOVING OUT OF THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
FREEZING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...ANY REMAINING WATER
WILL LIKELY FREEZE ON ROADWAYS RESULTING IN TRAVEL IMPACTS AND A
MESSY MORNING COMMUTE.

NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN WITH IT. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...HAVE
UNDERCUT MOS VALUES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION OF WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS...MOISTURE...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
AND THUS HAVE COMBINED THE MODELS FOR NOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
BEYOND THE WEEKEND IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

82/JLD

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Middle of the night check, on the water vapor and satellite, there will be loads of moisture coming in today. Already a few echos showing up in W tex

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Shreveport NWS, still most encouraging wording of all the surrounding offices, not just overwhelming on a winter storm, but at least they're explaining the scenario; If they're cold enough to get some snow, then Dallas will definately be cold enough. I haven't looked at any of the models this morning yet though.

HPC is back on our side for snow. Still including Dallas for up to 4 inches.

420 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...WINTRY WEATHER FORECAST TO IMPACT THE FOUR STATE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION BY
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION
INTO FRIDAY...AS THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. WITH
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE...THE PRECIPITATION COULD START
OUT AS MAINLY RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND
SLEET IS POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY
BEFORE ENDING. SOME ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS CENTERED ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING 1 TO 3 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY.
WINTER WEATHER EVENTS IN THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES ARE VERY
TRICKY TO FORECAST. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. A CHANGE IN THE LOWS
POSITION OF JUST ONE HUNDRED MILES WILL MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE IN THE LOCATION AND TYPE OF ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

RESIDENTS AND PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL FOR SEEING WINTRY WEATHER.

[rainman31]

Channel 4 FOX Dallas met just said it would be mostly rain a stay above freezing tonight and tomorrow

[Ntxw]

Well the radar in West Texas is lighting up pretty nicely. Probably a lot of virga with such dry air, but that's a good cooling process with such low dew points.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USTX1200&animate=true

[Portastorm]

Well the radar in West Texas is lighting up pretty nicely. Probably a lot of virga with such dry air, but that's a good cooling process with such low dew points.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USTX1200&animate=true

For sure ... and lots of moisture flowing into the state from the southwest ... meanwhile, our "friend" off the California coastline appears to be still be digging the scene out there, so to speak.

[DentonGal]

Where are all our weather experts? We need a ray of hope in the DFW area after what all the local wxmen have been saying this morning. Wake up, wake up, wake up....please.

[msstateguy83]

[Weatherdude20]

Virgastorm!

[DentonGal]

Virgastorm!

So is any of that actually touching the ground? Does this help us with keeping temps colder? Any explanation would be greatly appreciated.

[msstateguy83]

so whats the latest w/the models?? i just got out of bed, noticed the nws seems to still be going quite
conservative on this whole thing...

[TrekkerCC]

So is any of that actually touching the ground? Does this help us with keeping temps colder? Any explanation would be greatly appreciated.

I just went to check the observations, and it seems like nothing is occurring at the ground level at present. Interestingly enough, the San Angelo has included a very very slight chance of a rain/snow mix for West Texas in the afternoon hours for today. The upper level low that is bringing us the shot of wintry precipitation is still off shore Mexico right now. It looks to be coming on shore in a few hours, based on the current satellite images (water vapor and IR). It will be interesting to see how the 12z model runs portray the next 24 to 48 hours.