Texas Winter 2014-2015

[SouthernMet]

Looks like the models are again underestimating how strongly surface cold holds on especially with thick cloud cover and ice on the ground. They had us getting well into the 40s by now yet we still sit at 32. The issue is the models for tonight are expecting that it will take some rain to cool the low levels before the snow starts sticking. Instead we look to start out plenty cold for snow thus totals will be higher as will ratios. At 35 degrees we would have rain mixed with 6:1 ratio type snow at 32 it will be more like 9:1 or better and all snow. For this reason I could see a large area of 4"+ and a sizable area of 6"+ in NE TX.

So where's your axis of heaviest snowfall ? Euro/Canadian/Ukmet are all along I-20 or south from Dallas to Shreveport while NAM is north of I-30 from Dallas to Texarkana

& RGEM is south of Waco, but north of austin

[Texas Snowman]

Looks like the models are again underestimating how strongly surface cold holds on especially with thick cloud cover and ice on the ground. They had us getting well into the 40s by now yet we still sit at 32. The issue is the models for tonight are expecting that it will take some rain to cool the low levels before the snow starts sticking. Instead we look to start out plenty cold for snow thus totals will be higher as will ratios. At 35 degrees we would have rain mixed with 6:1 ratio type snow at 32 it will be more like 9:1 or better and all snow. For this reason I could see a large area of 4"+ and a sizable area of 6"+ in NE TX.

So where's your axis of heaviest snowfall ? Euro/Canadian/Ukmet are all along I-20 or south from Dallas to Shreveport while NAM is north of I-30 from Dallas to Texarkana

& RGEM is south of Waco, but north of austin

Throw a dart!

[wxman57]

And now for something completely different...

Noting how different the 00Z European model was for Texas temps through next week, I plotted a meteogram with the ECMWF temps added in (red dashed line). Note that the Euro is colder for Texas THIS week, particularly on Friday morning (31F vs. 35F for the GFS). The two models begin to diverge on Saturday, come into good agreement for next Monday/Tuesday, then diverge.

The GFS moves another strong cold front through Texas next Wednesday, while the Euro holds off the cold air until Friday afternoon. It doesn't show up on the graphic as it's beyond the 240hr point. While I'd love to believe the ECMWF, I suspect that the two models will eventually converge on a solution in between Wednesday and Friday of next week. Note the precip in the cold air according to the GFS...

[SouthernMet]

Temps are warming up now fwiw.

[dhweather]

Porta come back we have a chance... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs ... X_f075.gif

Trends are really in our favor in the Austin area for friday. However, tonight is going to be close.

Alright ... SouthernMet has pulled me out of the drunk tank, forced a couple of cups of coffee down my throat, and is holding this SREF in front of my face ... sobering me up.

Now there's the Portastorm we know and love!

Never give up, never surrender!

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like the models are again underestimating how strongly surface cold holds on especially with thick cloud cover and ice on the ground. They had us getting well into the 40s by now yet we still sit at 32. The issue is the models for tonight are expecting that it will take some rain to cool the low levels before the snow starts sticking. Instead we look to start out plenty cold for snow thus totals will be higher as will ratios. At 35 degrees we would have rain mixed with 6:1 ratio type snow at 32 it will be more like 9:1 or better and all snow. For this reason I could see a large area of 4"+ and a sizable area of 6"+ in NE TX.

So where's your axis of heaviest snowfall ? Euro/Canadian/Ukmet are all along I-20 or south from Dallas to Shreveport while NAM is north of I-30 from Dallas to Texarkana

I am going with generally just north of I-20 with the heaviest stuff though that area may expand a bit further south considering current temperature trends.

[weatherdude1108]

Porta come back we have a chance... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs ... X_f075.gif

Trends are really in our favor in the Austin area for friday. However, tonight is going to be close.

Alright ... SouthernMet has pulled me out of the drunk tank, forced a couple of cups of coffee down my throat, and is holding this SREF in front of my face ... sobering me up.

Now there's the Portastorm we know and love!

Never give up, never surrender!

So happy to see Portastorm recovering!!
Did I see that map right?? 6 inches in the area?
Is this a recent change? That would be a welcome end to Winter!
Man, things change fast around this place.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Porta will break down in tears when the flakes fly tonight!

[Brent]

[wxman57]

Here's a higher resolution version of the ECMWF snowfall for NE TX in 1/2 inch increments. Looks reasonable to me, as much as we can forecast such events with much accuracy.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

TXZ093>095-102>107-117>123-131>134-250530-
/O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0002.150225T0600Z-150225T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KFWD.WW.Y.0003.150225T0600Z-150225T1800Z/
GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-PARKER-
TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...
DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...
CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...
EAST TAWAKONI...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...
CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...
GLENN HEIGHTS
325 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS UPGRADED THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

* TEMPERATURES...WILL BE NEAR FREEZING WHEN SNOW IS FALLING.

* MAIN IMPACT...ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY MAKE TRAVEL ON
ROADWAYS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES HAZARDOUS. MOST OF THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE WET AND SLUSHY.

* OTHER NOTES...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP TO MELT SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.

&&

[SouthernMet]

Jealous of the heavy snow for north texas...
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloo ... omain=full

[JDawg512]

Temp at my place is only 38°... yesterday the forecasted high for today was supposed to be 43-44. Looks like we are still running 5 degrees below.

[iorange55]

Jealous of the heavy snow for north texas...
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloo ... omain=full

The end of that run sure does look beautiful...

[Longhornmaniac8]

Still only 34 degrees in Anderson Mill.

[wxman57]

Interesting items:

http://snoopn4pnuts.com/images/products/7714.jpg

http://www.tiendascosmic.com/imagenes/muniecos/FU08121charliebrownlucy_01g.jpg

http://www.madcoversite.com/mad393id.jpg

Meanwhile, Charlie Brown is running toward the football...

[Brent]

Jealous of the heavy snow for north texas...
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloo ... omain=full

The end of that run sure does look beautiful...

I wish I could believe this but it kind of overdid precip yesterday as I recall

[Texas Snowman]

From Steve McCauley's FB page, posted just a few minutes ago:

"I am running the SM on the winter storm coming in tonight. It is having what we call back home, " a big ol' fit." Some of the data suggest much of north Texas gets buried under a heavy wet blanket of snow (over a foot in some places) in the next 18 hours, and some of the data suggest we get ZERO snow.

Part of the problem is we won't be all that cold when the system moves through. Remember, temperatures will only be at or even slightly ABOVE freezing when this storm moves in. So there are some models that suggest it will be mainly rain.

I, and I believe MOST meteorologists, do not believe that will happen. Some of our biggest snows occur when temperatures are slightly above freezing. I am in hopes the SM will spit out something reasonably accurate for its snowfall prediction, and I will post as soon as I can."

[Brent]

From Steve McCauley's FB page, posted just a few minutes ago:

"I am running the SM on the winter storm coming in tonight. It is having what we call back home, " a big ol' fit." Some of the data suggest much of north Texas gets buried under a heavy wet blanket of snow (over a foot in some places) in the next 18 hours, and some of the data suggest we get ZERO snow.

Part of the problem is we won't be all that cold when the system moves through. Remember, temperatures will only be at or even slightly ABOVE freezing when this storm moves in. So there are some models that suggest it will be mainly rain.

I, and I believe MOST meteorologists, do not believe that will happen. Some of our biggest snows occur when temperatures are slightly above freezing. I am in hopes the SM will spit out something reasonably accurate for its snowfall prediction, and I will post as soon as I can."

Well that seemed to be kind of hyped up.

[Tireman4]

And now for something completely different...

Noting how different the 00Z European model was for Texas temps through next week, I plotted a meteogram with the ECMWF temps added in (red dashed line). Note that the Euro is colder for Texas THIS week, particularly on Friday morning (31F vs. 35F for the GFS). The two models begin to diverge on Saturday, come into good agreement for next Monday/Tuesday, then diverge.

The GFS moves another strong cold front through Texas next Wednesday, while the Euro holds off the cold air until Friday afternoon. It doesn't show up on the graphic as it's beyond the 240hr point. While I'd love to believe the ECMWF, I suspect that the two models will eventually converge on a solution in between Wednesday and Friday of next week. Note the precip in the cold air according to the GFS...

Is that what I think that is for the last graphic sir?