Texas Winter 2017-2018

[bubba hotep]

I’m feeling more optimistic tonight. I think the HRRRX is gonna pull out a surprising win. Like others have been saying, with this set up, we don’t really need a lot of precip. We just need some and I think we’re gonna get that.

The HRRRx has preformed well in the past but I don't look at it as often, given it's erratic nature. It seems like it is always down when I look at it lol

[South Texas Storms]

The 0z Experimental HRRR run looks pretty nice. Hope it verifies. Curious to see how it performs with this event. Will be a good test case for sure.

[Ntxw]

Tidbits I think is still struggling with some surface maps of RGEM. But here is 0z qpf run during advertised period so far. It ends the precip a little bit sooner than 18z cutting the total down a bit

[bubba hotep]

00z GFS running! Most important GFS run of the winter for DFW

[aggiecutter]

[Ntxw]

A hair better? . That's all we need! At least it's just the NAM that is bone dry for DFW

[iorange55]

I was about to post that! That's all we asked for tonight, and we got it. We just need a little and the trend is now back in our favor.

[Ntxw]

I was about to post that! That's all we asked for tonight, and we got it. We just need a little and the trend is now back in our favor.

It will be real time in about 12-24hrs. We'll have an idea what is right when we see precip start forming. If it happens over DFW we're likely in trouble but if it occurs to the N/NW we're in good shape

[sphelps8681]

Tuesday is my birthday!! Would love to see some snow.

Is there any chance we will see snow/sleet/freezing rain where I am in East Texas.

[Haris]

I was about to post that! That's all we asked for tonight, and we got it. We just need a little and the trend is now back in our favor.

It will be real time in about 12-24hrs. We'll have an idea what is right when we see precip start forming. If it happens over DFW we're likely in trouble but if it occurs to the N/NW we're in good shape

GFS STILL HAMMERS ME! YAY

[orangeblood]

I’m feeling more optimistic tonight. I think the HRRRX is gonna pull out a surprising win. Like others have been saying, with this set up, we don’t really need a lot of precip. We just need some and I think we’re gonna get that.

The HRRRx has preformed well in the past but I don't look at it as often, given it's erratic nature. It seems like it is always down when I look at it lol

This model has performed the best during our surprise winter storms, it was our go-to during the 2011 Pre-Super Bowl storm where no one, besides this board, was predicting a thing. It also did well last week, the Texas Tech model was the worthless one so probably best to throw that one out.

[Ntxw]

I was about to post that! That's all we asked for tonight, and we got it. We just need a little and the trend is now back in our favor.

It will be real time in about 12-24hrs. We'll have an idea what is right when we see precip start forming. If it happens over DFW we're likely in trouble but if it occurs to the N/NW we're in good shape

GFS STILL HAMMERS ME! YAY

Yes, GFS has plenty of sleet for Austin ending as some snow. Some sleet for Houston proper verbatim

[Ralph's Weather]

Tuesday is my birthday!! Would love to see some snow.

Is there any chance we will see snow/sleet/freezing rain where I am in East Texas.

You are pretty far south but i do think you will see some freezing rain and sleet starting early Tuesday morning and ending possibly with a flurry of snow.

[aggiecutter]

[longhornweather]

I was about to post that! That's all we asked for tonight, and we got it. We just need a little and the trend is now back in our favor.

It will be real time in about 12-24hrs. We'll have an idea what is right when we see precip start forming. If it happens over DFW we're likely in trouble but if it occurs to the N/NW we're in good shape

GFS STILL HAMMERS ME! YAY

Seems like there hasn’t been too much in the way of changes for the Austin area this evening. Still looks like a mixed bag mess of frozen precipitation.

[sphelps8681]

Tuesday is my birthday!! Would love to see some snow.

Is there any chance we will see snow/sleet/freezing rain where I am in East Texas.

You are pretty far south but i do think you will see some freezing rain and sleet starting early Tuesday morning and ending possibly with a flurry of snow.

Don't like freezing rain but will take a flurry of snow. We don't get to see snow much down here so even if we see flurries come down as long as we can see it in the light of a flash light that's pretty awesome down here. We get pretty excited. I know we are some lame.

[sphelps8681]

Local weather shows 50% chance of possible rain/snow for Tuesday.

[Captmorg70]

Is there any chance we will see snow/sleet/freezing rain where I am in East Texas.

You are pretty far south but i do think you will see some freezing rain and sleet starting early Tuesday morning and ending possibly with a flurry of snow.

Don't like freezing rain but will take a flurry of snow. We don't get to see snow much down here so even if we see flurries come down as long as we can see it in the light of a flash light that's pretty awesome down here. We get pretty excited. I know we are some lame.

I do this too up in NTx. There is something very exciting about winter weather. I don’t blame you

[Ntxw]

One aspect we keep forgetting is cold! DFW is forecasted with a high of 26F Tuesday. Austin 27F. Houston low 40s and falling to low to mid 30s.

At -3.5F for the month so far this week is going to drop it a bit more. Unless some record blowtorch happens the second half, we are a lock almost for below average winter month!



...in 2015-2016 our entire winter low was 27F. Last year at this time we were embarking on the the torchiest of torch endings for a winter.

[orangeblood]

Crazy uncle is still on board, looks very similar to HRRR...tough forecasts for the NWS offices across the state tomorrow