Texas Winter 2021-2022

[DallasAg]

This type of -EPO (Alaska/W Can) can sustain cold air masses relative to the time of year. There's not much -AO help so the deep cold isn't able to penetrate the SE ridge, however lower level cold can win. One background metric (at least for DFW) is the amount of freezes. Prior with the +EPO before the new year we had a whopping 1 freeze. Has come in bunches with the -EPO since.

https://i.imgur.com/SByReye.gif

How often does DFW get 40+ freezing nights? Good chance this year you reach that mark give y’all are at #31 or so.

Here in Austin I believe the city has gotten 13 but airport has seen 26

42 years out of 126 kept on record so roughly a third of the time. 2013-2014 (55) and 2014-2015 (40) were the last occurrences. 28 so far.

Interestingly, Love Field - in the middle of the heat island - has hit 32 or less 30 times this season. It seems like Love has consistently been 1-2 degrees cooler than DFW for the last several months. Very strange.

[Brent]

A Textbook Sleetstorm for Oklahoma & Northern Texas by the NAM

We got NAMed!

I just hope it's sleet and not freezing rain. Sleet can be managed

Also want to note that the Warm Nose on the models is very strong, up to 6.5°C on the soundings. I hope that's not the case.

Yeah I've been concerned about this being an ice storm from the start. We will see sleet would be a win. Maybe we can end as snow but yeah otherwise not overly optimistic

[txtwister78]

FWIW....You can definitely tell what model the NWS out of AUS/SAT is choosing to follow (hint definitely not the NAM). A little surprised it wasn't mentioned in the AFD even if an outlier compared to the other models.

This shallow cold front should move through the CWA Tuesday night or
early Wednesday bringing with it another taste of winter. Highs
Wednesday across the northern part of the CWA will likely range from
the 40s to 60s, but the southern part of the area will still reach
the middle to upper 70s. Temperatures across the north will likely
fall through the afternoon. Thursday will be another chilly day over
the north and east, but the cooler air will not reach the southwest.
The jet stream will remain somewhat active behind this front and
will lead to chances of precipitation behind the front Wednesday and
Thursday with slight chances of precipitation continuing Friday and
Saturday for mainly the eastern half of the area. Models have trended
later with the coldest air and therefore warmer on Thursday, and we
have removed the mention of wintry precipitation from the forecast
then. There is now a small chance of some brief wintry weather Friday
morning. We do not expect any impacts at this time. Another upper
shortwave trough will drop down over Texas Saturday into Sunday. this
will bring another low chance for rain to the eastern half of the
CWA.

[Haris]

ICON adjusting colder for Thu. NWS will always be late to game with these fronts. We’ve seen this story too often

[Cpv17]

ICON adjusting colder for Thu. NWS will always be late to game with these fronts. We’ve seen this story too often

Yep! Can only let it fool you one so many times before you catch on.

[txtwister78]

ICON adjusting colder for Thu. NWS will always be late to game with these fronts. We’ve seen this story too often

Yep! Can only let it fool you one so many times before you catch on.

To be fair it (NAM) wasn't that great in early February so it's not always right (was actually warmer then). After my post above, I was told that they did mention the NAM (faster/colder solution) on their twitter page and basically pointed to it being too early in its forecast output/range but would be monitored for possible temp adjustments later on in the forecast.

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS looks a tad warmer than 12z but still shows widespread freezing rain across DFW. Looks like 0.25-0.40" of rain during that period.

[Haris]

18z GFS looks a tad warmer than 12z but still shows widespread freezing rain across DFW. Looks like 0.25-0.40" of rain during that period.

upload high quality photos

Individual ens much colder which is interesting. Often opposite

[Golf7270]

Brent, I've always been concerned for your area since earlier this week. Better chance than my area for sure. Does anyone have the individual ensembles of gfs for my area further east they can post?

[orangeblood]

18z NAM about a few degrees "warmer" overall generally speaking during the Wednesday temp transition period. This run does indicate a small increase in coverage now of some light sleet/freezing rain mix from parts of Oklahoma into Central TX (still nothing significant though yet in terms of accumulation).

One thing as mentioned prior (even with the NAM's better handling of the shallow arctic air draining into the state) is this is probably as cold as you're going to get (a few degrees either way) with surface temps in looking at the small variation in temps from the panhandle into central TX late in the day on Wednesday (which is certainly well below average for this time of year) but right now even with the faster NAM, nothing screams significant cold or freezing precip (all manageable still despite the roller coaster weather week we have shaping up). I do think that may be the story line especially if the NAM has the better handle on the faster temp drop as many folks may be caught by "surprise" Wednesday.

The lighter amounts of frozen precip along with the manageable cold would be great news for our roads and the population centers. Holding out hope that we avoid that mess. Still a few things to watch though, especially should a secondary surge of arctic air arrive later in the week as some of the ensembles indicate now.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/t2m_f_dprog/1645380000/1645660800-HUOSr1DafUk.png

I guess we have different definitions of “significant”…highs of 26-28 F with .20-.30 inch qpf and the potential for 60 hrs below freezing is significant in my book for DFW and disruptive

[Ntxw]

Current system/cold aside models (ENs and OPs) are going nuts in the Alaska/Barents Sea Arctic region via ridging. I would not be surprised at all to see something crazy (for early March) standards. We are overdue for March Madness which tends to happen every other year.

The fact we have not had MMW/SSW this winter so far just delays the final warming and make for a something cold March or April once it does.

[mcallum177]

Is this storm looking like a sleeper? The board seems rather quiet compared to the last storm.

[bubba hotep]

18z NAM about a few degrees "warmer" overall generally speaking during the Wednesday temp transition period. This run does indicate a small increase in coverage now of some light sleet/freezing rain mix from parts of Oklahoma into Central TX (still nothing significant though yet in terms of accumulation).

One thing as mentioned prior (even with the NAM's better handling of the shallow arctic air draining into the state) is this is probably as cold as you're going to get (a few degrees either way) with surface temps in looking at the small variation in temps from the panhandle into central TX late in the day on Wednesday (which is certainly well below average for this time of year) but right now even with the faster NAM, nothing screams significant cold or freezing precip (all manageable still despite the roller coaster weather week we have shaping up). I do think that may be the story line especially if the NAM has the better handle on the faster temp drop as many folks may be caught by "surprise" Wednesday.

The lighter amounts of frozen precip along with the manageable cold would be great news for our roads and the population centers. Holding out hope that we avoid that mess. Still a few things to watch though, especially should a secondary surge of arctic air arrive later in the week as some of the ensembles indicate now.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/t2m_f_dprog/1645380000/1645660800-HUOSr1DafUk.png

I guess we have different definitions of “significant”…highs of 26-28 F with .20-.30 inch qpf and the potential for 60 hrs below freezing is significant in my book for DFW and disruptive

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f/1645380000/1645660800-bBoNjnl09wA.png

This is a really tough forecast for FWD. It would almost be easier to forecast if you just went with cold bias and forecasted a long stretch below freezing with rounds of freezing rain & sleet. If we get temps bouncing up and down around freezing with rounds of moisture, then the roads will be a nightmare as people encounter rain in one area and then freezing rain and icy overpasses in another area of the metroplex.

[bubba hotep]

Current system/cold aside models (ENs and OPs) are going nuts in the Alaska/Barents Sea Arctic region via ridging. I would not be surprised at all to see something crazy (for early March) standards. We are overdue for March Madness which tends to happen every other year.

The fact we have not had MMW/SSW this winter so far just delays the final warming and make for a something cold March or April once it does.

This fits with my post a while back on the MJO and fading Nina. If the MJO can overcome the fading background state and push into P6/7 then I would bet on a winter wx event in March.

[Ntxw]

Is this storm looking like a sleeper? The board seems rather quiet compared to the last storm.

The last storm was a rare easy, relatively, forecast. This one has a higher bust potential because the upper energy is (at least for now) ejecting much further north. Very reliant on what rides up from the subtropics and speed of cold air. But we are also dealing with a longer duration -EPO set up incoming.

[orangeblood]

18z NAM about a few degrees "warmer" overall generally speaking during the Wednesday temp transition period. This run does indicate a small increase in coverage now of some light sleet/freezing rain mix from parts of Oklahoma into Central TX (still nothing significant though yet in terms of accumulation).

One thing as mentioned prior (even with the NAM's better handling of the shallow arctic air draining into the state) is this is probably as cold as you're going to get (a few degrees either way) with surface temps in looking at the small variation in temps from the panhandle into central TX late in the day on Wednesday (which is certainly well below average for this time of year) but right now even with the faster NAM, nothing screams significant cold or freezing precip (all manageable still despite the roller coaster weather week we have shaping up). I do think that may be the story line especially if the NAM has the better handle on the faster temp drop as many folks may be caught by "surprise" Wednesday.

The lighter amounts of frozen precip along with the manageable cold would be great news for our roads and the population centers. Holding out hope that we avoid that mess. Still a few things to watch though, especially should a secondary surge of arctic air arrive later in the week as some of the ensembles indicate now.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/t2m_f_dprog/1645380000/1645660800-HUOSr1DafUk.png

I guess we have different definitions of “significant”…highs of 26-28 F with .20-.30 inch qpf and the potential for 60 hrs below freezing is significant in my book for DFW and disruptive

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f/1645380000/1645660800-bBoNjnl09wA.png

This is a really tough forecast for FWD. It would almost be easier to forecast if you just went with cold bias and forecasted a long stretch below freezing with rounds of freezing rain & sleet. If we get temps bouncing up and down around freezing with rounds of moisture, then the roads will be a nightmare as people encounter rain in one area and then freezing rain and icy overpasses in another area of the metroplex.

Yep, the nightmare scenario is what occurred at the onset of the Last Feb Outbreak in Fort Worth….temps upper 20’s with sporadic light frz rain that led to the 70 car pileup and several deaths on I-35

[Ntxw]

Current system/cold aside models (ENs and OPs) are going nuts in the Alaska/Barents Sea Arctic region via ridging. I would not be surprised at all to see something crazy (for early March) standards. We are overdue for March Madness which tends to happen every other year.

The fact we have not had MMW/SSW this winter so far just delays the final warming and make for a something cold March or April once it does.

This fits with my post a while back on the MJO and fading Nina. If the MJO can overcome the fading background state and push into P6/7 then I would bet on a winter wx event in March.

WPAC is on a run. In a more canonical Nina the waters there would be relatively cool as it fades to the west. We have not seen Nina maritime forcing since first half of December! That is crazy. It's been stalling in the Pacific-Indian phases and then quickly passing the maritime continent. Probably same case here.

[bubba hotep]

For tomorrow, WPC also has a marginal excessive rain outlook for almost the same area.

[cheezyWXguy]

I guess we have different definitions of “significant”…highs of 26-28 F with .20-.30 inch qpf and the potential for 60 hrs below freezing is significant in my book for DFW and disruptive

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f/1645380000/1645660800-bBoNjnl09wA.png

This is a really tough forecast for FWD. It would almost be easier to forecast if you just went with cold bias and forecasted a long stretch below freezing with rounds of freezing rain & sleet. If we get temps bouncing up and down around freezing with rounds of moisture, then the roads will be a nightmare as people encounter rain in one area and then freezing rain and icy overpasses in another area of the metroplex.

Yep, the nightmare scenario is what occurred at the onset of the Last Feb Outbreak in Fort Worth….temps upper 20’s with sporadic light frz rain that led to the 70 car pileup and several deaths on I-35

Yes, and as a reminder to everyone who may view this event as insignificant, that pileup occurred due to accumulations of no more than 0.05” of ice.

In a way, minor events like that are worse because so many people let their guard down

[txtwister78]

18z NAM about a few degrees "warmer" overall generally speaking during the Wednesday temp transition period. This run does indicate a small increase in coverage now of some light sleet/freezing rain mix from parts of Oklahoma into Central TX (still nothing significant though yet in terms of accumulation).

One thing as mentioned prior (even with the NAM's better handling of the shallow arctic air draining into the state) is this is probably as cold as you're going to get (a few degrees either way) with surface temps in looking at the small variation in temps from the panhandle into central TX late in the day on Wednesday (which is certainly well below average for this time of year) but right now even with the faster NAM, nothing screams significant cold or freezing precip (all manageable still despite the roller coaster weather week we have shaping up). I do think that may be the story line especially if the NAM has the better handle on the faster temp drop as many folks may be caught by "surprise" Wednesday.

The lighter amounts of frozen precip along with the manageable cold would be great news for our roads and the population centers. Holding out hope that we avoid that mess. Still a few things to watch though, especially should a secondary surge of arctic air arrive later in the week as some of the ensembles indicate now.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/t2m_f_dprog/1645380000/1645660800-HUOSr1DafUk.png

I guess we have different definitions of “significant”…highs of 26-28 F with .20-.30 inch qpf and the potential for 60 hrs below freezing is significant in my book for DFW and disruptive

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f/1645380000/1645660800-bBoNjnl09wA.png

Depends on which model you're looking at obviously. I can cherry pick and point to the most extremes with each forecasted model output and post it on here and say "look everyone doomsday scenario" but that's not how weather typically works. My take is you take the middle road and go from there until you get more agreement in one direction or the other. As I'm sure you're aware, there are some models that are not as bullish with precip or temps. Roads will be really warm over the next few days so my point was unless temps are holding in the mid 20's for long periods of time with continual precip, I don't see this being as significant. Granted it doesn't take much to cause some issues with bridges and overpasses, but no reason to sound the alarm bells just yet. That's "ok" right?