Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z run of the ETA MM5 shows very little total precipitation through the next 3 days.

Very unimpressive.

It kind of rotates all around Western Washington.

And there will be sun breaks.

[snow_wizzard]

I am very skeptical about the lack of precip the models are showing. They did the same thing with the last low and that one blasted some areas pretty good. This is a much stronger and colder low than the last one! There is no way to have this cold of a low right over us in June and get nothing out of it. On the other hand a low moved close to us in June 1985 and only dropped 1/10th inch at my place, but the temps were much below normal. The track of this one is more favorable for significant precip than that one was.

[TT-SEA]

I don't know.

An upper low right overhead in June is not the best.

Vancouver Island is the best for cold and all-day rain.

Right overhead means showery with sun. And I trust the MM5.

[snow_wizzard]

A nice cluster of showers is showing up around Cowlitz County, and they should have our name on them! The flow pattern is very odd today, but it looks like they will move NNE, then straight to the north, and then begin to head more NNW once they get to SE King County. The models are going to have fits trying to pin down who is going to get a lot of rain and who isn't. I can still imagine some places easily getting an inch over the next two days.

[andycottle]

Good late morning all. By looking at a few modles late this morning....am thinking that there is still a half way decent chance of thunder storms for later this afternoon. GFS and NAM both show a short wave coming into our area. MM5 showing 850MB temps of +2C with 500MB temps of -22 to-26C. And the GOES Satellite Sounder imagery is indicating lapse rates of about 7 to near 8C/KM, with lifted indices of 0 to -2C and CAPE values showing 200 to 300 J/KG. SPC also has us in the general threat area for thunder storm activity. So as mentioned, my thinking of storms later today seems good right now.

-- Andy

[andrewr]

Currently I am getting some thunder, but have yet to see lightning. Good call for those that predicted thunderstorms today.

[snow_wizzard]

54 degrees at 1:00pm. Now that's what I'm talkin about! That is WAY BELOW NORMAL, no matter how you slice it. For those who wonder why I am making such a big deal about below normal temps, consider this...out of the last 18 months, only 2 have averaged below normal. To say the least any below normal monthly average is huge news at this point. The thing I really like is the fact that last June was ridiculously warm. We are beginning to part ways with the trends of last year!

By the way...the prospects for La Nina are looking better all the time. Now the Australian model has taken a turn for the cold. It's last 15 runs have been much colder than the previous 15. That is the same thing that is showing up in the NOAA model!

[andycottle]

Thanks Andrew for the comment.

No thunder here in my area. Just partly to mostly cloudy skies at times here. Thought I was going to have a t-storm here, but the current cluster of moderate rain is passing by just to my West a little bit. Current temp at 1:48pm is 59 degrees with DP of 43. -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

52 degrees at 2:30pm! Wow! This is close to the day I remember way back in June 1985 when the late afternoon temp was 49. This is FANTASTIC!

The radar is lit up with almost a solid mass of showers headed right for the central Puget Sound area. We have chalked up a couple of 10ths in the past hour or so, and much more is on the way.

Perhaps Sea - Tac will see the magic 2.5 inches this month, and it will average below normal!

[andycottle]

Just very light drizzel falling here right now...and nothing adding up in my rain gage as of yet. 57 degrees as of 3:10pm. -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

Andy...It sure looks like you should get something good very soon. There is a lot activity up that way! There also seems to be something pretty big moving up from Lewis County right now. We will see how that tracks.

[cycloneye]

54 degrees at 1:00pm. Now that's what I'm talkin about! That is WAY BELOW NORMAL, no matter how you slice it. For those who wonder why I am making such a big deal about below normal temps, consider this...out of the last 18 months, only 2 have averaged below normal. To say the least any below normal monthly average is huge news at this point. The thing I really like is the fact that last June was ridiculously warm. We are beginning to part ways with the trends of last year!

By the way...the prospects for La Nina are looking better all the time. Now the Australian model has taken a turn for the cold. It's last 15 runs have been much colder than the previous 15. That is the same thing that is showing up in the NOAA model!

snow_wizzard look at the POAMA MODEL of the aussies how they haved backed down bigtime on el nino from the over 60% they had in may to 18.3% the most% for warm frequency.And the % for La Nina is slowly going up from 0% all the time until now when it is at 3.8%.

Outlook for: Jul
2005 Aug
2005 Sep
2005 Oct
2005 Nov
2005 Dec
2005 Jan
2006
Mean temperature -0.23 0.08 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.13 0.11
Model cool frequency (< –0.8°C) 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.8%
Model neutral frequency 90.5% 93.3% 83.8% 81.7% 86.4% 87.6% 91.4%
Model warm frequency (> +0.8°C) 0.5% 6.7% 16.2% 18.3% 13.6% 12.2% 4.9%

[snow_wizzard]

The weird stories just keep rolling in this year! For the first time since tornado records were kept (back to 1950) the state of Oklahoma recorded 0, yes zero, tornados in the month of May. Our state had more than that! The previous low year was 2 in 1988, which by the way is a year I have considered a loose analog with this year. 1978 was also onthe list of lowest years, which lends more support to that being our best analog this year. Out of the nine lowest total years 6 of them were prior to 1975. More evidence that the weather has flipped to a pre 1975 configuration this year...

I truly think we are going to see some huge suprises in the seasons ahead!

Did any of you hear about the snow event they had in Somalia a few days ago? Even if it was actually hail, it was the first time frozen precip had ever been seen in that region. Wow...is this weather out of whack this year.

[andycottle]

Snow wizzard....you are right! looks like a short wave of some sort is currently in the South sound, and making it`s way toward mt area. Maybe a an awsome bacth of storms with the next hour 1 1/2hrs.
-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

Cycloneye...I like those numbers!

Look at the shower band forming over SW Washington right now!

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... ?vis1km+12

This looks like something pretty significant. If you will notice it is organizing and extends for quite a distance.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye...I like those numbers!

In what aspect you like the numbers from POAMA about the % of La Nina going up?

[snow_wizzard]

La Nina gives us a better chance of a cold winter in the Pacific NW.

[cycloneye]

La Nina gives us a better chance of a cold winter in the Pacific NW.

Oh ok snow_wizzard.Let's see what occurs in the next few months in the equatorial Pacific.

[andycottle]

Hi all. Here`s just a few pics I have taken so far this afternoon...or at least these are the ones I think that look really good. Enjoy! Could be more pics later on....as I see fit .
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... .dir=/7b1f

-- Andy

[andycottle]

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... vzoom=zoom

Hey! Check out the radar....pretty active!