Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Big O]

National Weather Service out of BRO issued a Winter Storm Watch for the RGV earlier today. Now they have dropped our chance of seeing wintry precipitation from 50% to 30% and don't mention any accumulations. What am I missing?

It seems like there is a battle of sorts shaping up between the GFS, which shows most of the heavy precipitation in the RGV and Coastal Bend, and a pocket near the Houston area versus the European (and I believe other models), which has(have) most of the heaviest precipitation in SE Texas. Is any particular model more reliable in terms of QPF than any other model? Any thoughts which is most likely to verify? How much am I looking at in the McAllen area? The GFS has been giving me anywhere from 2-3 inches, while the European gave me .70". All comments are welcomed, as I am still learning.

[PineyWoods]

If it snows, it will be the fluffy snow that sticks the moment it falls.

"If"? Bad Karma.

Seriously, thanks for your contribution here. Hopefully there won't be any "dry slotting" for us in east Texas with this system.

[iorange55]

CBS11 had an interesting graphic just now. He showed one of the models that has been doing a good job recently and it showed 2 inches or so from the middle of dallas south. An inch for Fort Worth and north.

[southerngale]

Could Houston get missed? The snow that is...I hate this pesky 850 mb warm layer...

Hmmm.

May I ask what are you talking about? Everything I've been reading today is looking more and more likely. Just wondering where this is coming from?

[Ntxw]

Major school districts in North Texas closed tomorrow again. Including Dallas, wow. Can anyone remember 3 weather days for DISD?

[iorange55]

Lol, CBS11 has Houston in the rain area. I wouldn't worry, though.

[newtotex]

What have the models been showing for North Texas early next week?

[Tireman4]

Lol, CBS11 has Houston in the rain area. I wouldn't worry, though.

Our Channel 11 or your Channel 11? Ours has snow.....

From David Paul...meteorologist..Channel 11 CBS KHOU:

Snow could actually begin Thursday night, but Friday looks to be a day that we will be dealing with snow, he said.　

Computer models are projecting that neighborhoods south of I-10 may see the most amounts of snow.
The weekend is expected to bring warmer, sunnier weather as highs jump back into the lower 60s Sunday

[iorange55]

Lol, CBS11 has Houston in the rain area. I wouldn't worry, though.

Our Channel 11 or your Channel 11? Ours has snow.....

Ours. But like I said don't worry. I was mainly posting it just for laughs.

[Tireman4]

Lol, CBS11 has Houston in the rain area. I wouldn't worry, though.

Our Channel 11 or your Channel 11? Ours has snow.....

Ours. But like I said don't worry. I was mainly posting it just for laughs.

Oh goodness

[downsouthman1]

National Weather Service out of BRO issued a Winter Storm Watch for the RGV earlier today. Now they have dropped our chance of seeing wintry precipitation from 50% to 30% and don't mention any accumulations. What am I missing?

It seems like there is a battle of sorts shaping up between the GFS, which shows most of the heavy precipitation in the RGV and Coastal Bend, and a pocket near the Houston area versus the European (and I believe other models), which has(have) most of the heaviest precipitation in SE Texas. Is any particular model more reliable in terms of QPF than any other model? Any thoughts which is most likely to verify? How much am I looking at in the McAllen area? The GFS has been giving me anywhere from 2-3 inches, while the European gave me .70". All comments are welcomed, as I am still learning.

Sorry; I just realized no one ever answered your question. I think the problem for your area is that this storm is gonna take a more northerly track than was initially forecast. That being said, you are probably too far south to see measurable snowfall. Regarding models, they are all used in conjunction. I don't think 1 is much better than another. But for certain parameters, they do make a difference.

Not an official forecast!

[Ntxw]

Starting to get into that time zone for RUC and HRRR. HRRR starts streaming a band of light snow just NW of SA and Austin heading northeast. Precip is also starting to breakout around the Texas coast region. Mesoscale banding. Someone could get lucky!

[Portastorm]

Iam going to say 1-2 inches with this for DFW

We have a rule on this board in that if you are not a professional meteorologist and make a forecast, you must include a forecast disclaimer which I will include below. You can also find more information about this in the Storm2K Rules and Announcements forum. Thanks snow4444.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[South Texas Storms]

Can I have a link the view the HRRR?

[Portastorm]

Ntxw, is that a 12z map as in a map as of 12z tomorrow as in it's snowing in northwest Travis County at 7 am tomorrow morning already?!

[Turtle]

Something interesting. Lufkin (in Shreveport's NWS) has a high of 39 on Friday for Lufkin, but just just 10-15 miles west or south and Houston NWS is forecasting around 34. I guess this could be due to precip and cloud cover, but not sure.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, is that a 12z map as in a map as of 12z tomorrow as in it's snowing in northwest Travis County at 7 am tomorrow morning already?!

I believe it is 7 am.

[South Texas Storms]

Yay Turtle that shows you getting 1-2 inches!

[Portastorm]

Ntxw, is that a 12z map as in a map as of 12z tomorrow as in it's snowing in northwest Travis County at 7 am tomorrow morning already?!

I believe it is 7 am.

Actually, I think 12z is 6am when it's non-daylight savings time. Wow ... I wonder how accurate that might be. The expectation here is that any snow won't start until afternoon. That would surprise a lot of folks.

[TrekkerCC]

Can I have a link the view the HRRR?

HRRR: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/

RR: http://ruc.noaa.gov/rr/

The above models will replace, in the next couple of years, the current short range model (also very good), the RUC:

RUC: http://ruc.noaa.gov/

These models are good for noting short range trends. You might want to take the 10 - 18 hours output with a grain of salt.