Texas Winter 2021-2022

[txtwister78]

Often times at this timeframe for these scenarios it’s a blend of Nam for temps and globals for precip. The euro is about to run and I suspect that within 24 hours from now one side will have caved to the other with new HiRes to confirm and we will have a better forecast of what will likely happen. Get your bets in now with DFW being the likely battleground for prop betting

I don't like counting the NAM out with these shallow arctic fronts as it typically handles them better than the globals as mentioned before, but no question I would like to see it have more support at this point before going all in. If it does verify, expect more frozen precip across a larger portion of the state as that would setup a more classic overrunning scenario all be it with lighter amounts, but depending on temps could create some minor issues with overpasses/bridges.

[gpsnowman]

Warm and muggy day on tap and half of tomorrow before temps start dropping quick. Some could get a good spring type thunderstorm this evening. Wild weather week coming up!!!

[HockeyTx82]

Warm and muggy day on tap and half of tomorrow before temps start dropping quick. Some could get a good spring type thunderstorm this evening. Wild weather week coming up!!!

Yup, the clash of two seasons will be on show.

[Portastorm]

Well, if the NAM has its way I may need to break out the old “Freezing Drizzle Capital of Texas” moniker for Austin later this week.

[Iceresistance]

Northern DFW, & most of Oklahoma is under a Slight risk of Severe Storms today.

[txtwister78]

06z NAM a few degrees colder generally speaking. Freezing line inching further south with this run now into Bexar County points east just along and north of I-10. Sleet continues to show as the predominant type of frozen precip further north which would be better for those areas in terms of overall impacts. 12z incoming.

HRRR extended a tad bit slower with the freezing line through 12z Wednesday morning but not that far off from the NAM in terms of frontal progress.

[wxman57]

Surface maps associated with the cold front just look wrong, to me. I can see what the models are doing. With an upper-level trough to the west, they have SW wind at 50 kts across Texas Wed/Thu. Because the upper level winds are from the SW, they're stalling the southward movement of the front near Houston. Most famous case of this mistake was in November of 1993 (Leon Lett Thanksgiving game). I remember that the models had a big upper-level low over 4-corners and SW winds aloft across Texas. The models drove the cold air south to the TX coast then back to the north into Oklahoma as the upper low deepened. Nope! The front kept on moving south, regardless of the upper-level flow. It was n the middle of the Gulf while the models had the front retreating north to Oklahoma. We were below freezing in Houston vs. in the upper 70s. Big ice storm across Texas and that famous play by Leon Lett.

Similarly, I do not believe that the cold air will stall and retreat back to the north this week under SW flow aloft. This means that the cold air across Texas may be deeper than the models are predicting. That giant 50+F warm nose aloft over D-FW may not be so large. Might increase the risk of freezing rain/sleet there, but the cold air probably won't be deep enough for snow. I think that the front may move south of Houston on Wednesday vs. Friday.

[txtwister78]

Surface maps associated with the cold front just look wrong, to me. I can see what the models are doing. With an upper-level trough to the west, they have SW wind at 50 kts across Texas Wed/Thu. Because the upper level winds are from the SW, they're stalling the southward movement of the front near Houston. Most famous case of this mistake was in November of 1993 (Leon Lett Thanksgiving game). I remember that the models had a big upper-level low over 4-corners and SW winds aloft across Texas. The models drove the cold air south to the TX coast then back to the north into Oklahoma as the upper low deepened. Nope! The front kept on moving south, regardless of the upper-level flow. It was n the middle of the Gulf while the models had the front retreating north to Oklahoma. We were below freezing in Houston vs. in the upper 70s. Big ice storm across Texas and that famous play by Leon Lett.

Similarly, I do not believe that the cold air will stall and retreat back to the north this week under SW flow aloft. This means that the cold air across Texas may be deeper than the models are predicting. That giant 50+F warm nose aloft over D-FW may not be so large. Might increase the risk of freezing rain/sleet there, but the cold air probably won't be deep enough for snow. I think that the front may move south of Houston on Wednesday vs. Friday.

Great explanation as that was really throwing me for a loop with the return flow on Thursday. If I recall models were also doing this sort of thing last year with the big Feb outbreak (obviously different scenarios in terms of strength/impact) but similar struggles with models.

[HockeyTx82]

Surface maps associated with the cold front just look wrong, to me. I can see what the models are doing. With an upper-level trough to the west, they have SW wind at 50 kts across Texas Wed/Thu. Because the upper level winds are from the SW, they're stalling the southward movement of the front near Houston. Most famous case of this mistake was in November of 1993 (Leon Lett Thanksgiving game). I remember that the models had a big upper-level low over 4-corners and SW winds aloft across Texas. The models drove the cold air south to the TX coast then back to the north into Oklahoma as the upper low deepened. Nope! The front kept on moving south, regardless of the upper-level flow. It was n the middle of the Gulf while the models had the front retreating north to Oklahoma. We were below freezing in Houston vs. in the upper 70s. Big ice storm across Texas and that famous play by Leon Lett.

Similarly, I do not believe that the cold air will stall and retreat back to the north this week under SW flow aloft. This means that the cold air across Texas may be deeper than the models are predicting. That giant 50+F warm nose aloft over D-FW may not be so large. Might increase the risk of freezing rain/sleet there, but the cold air probably won't be deep enough for snow. I think that the front may move south of Houston on Wednesday vs. Friday.

So are you predicting colder, more precip and longer then what the models are saying? I remember that storm and Leon Lett.

That was good storm and my dad driving hime was interesting from North Dallas to Lewisville.

[bubba hotep]

Surface maps associated with the cold front just look wrong, to me. I can see what the models are doing. With an upper-level trough to the west, they have SW wind at 50 kts across Texas Wed/Thu. Because the upper level winds are from the SW, they're stalling the southward movement of the front near Houston. Most famous case of this mistake was in November of 1993 (Leon Lett Thanksgiving game). I remember that the models had a big upper-level low over 4-corners and SW winds aloft across Texas. The models drove the cold air south to the TX coast then back to the north into Oklahoma as the upper low deepened. Nope! The front kept on moving south, regardless of the upper-level flow. It was n the middle of the Gulf while the models had the front retreating north to Oklahoma. We were below freezing in Houston vs. in the upper 70s. Big ice storm across Texas and that famous play by Leon Lett.

Similarly, I do not believe that the cold air will stall and retreat back to the north this week under SW flow aloft. This means that the cold air across Texas may be deeper than the models are predicting. That giant 50+F warm nose aloft over D-FW may not be so large. Might increase the risk of freezing rain/sleet there, but the cold air probably won't be deep enough for snow. I think that the front may move south of Houston on Wednesday vs. Friday.

Similar thinking here. FWD isn't totally discounting the NAM but it still leaning heavily on the NBM and only blending things slightly cooler. Their official forecast still has temps bouncing around the freezing mark but they may be forced to adjust colder here shortly.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Surface maps associated with the cold front just look wrong, to me. I can see what the models are doing. With an upper-level trough to the west, they have SW wind at 50 kts across Texas Wed/Thu. Because the upper level winds are from the SW, they're stalling the southward movement of the front near Houston. Most famous case of this mistake was in November of 1993 (Leon Lett Thanksgiving game). I remember that the models had a big upper-level low over 4-corners and SW winds aloft across Texas. The models drove the cold air south to the TX coast then back to the north into Oklahoma as the upper low deepened. Nope! The front kept on moving south, regardless of the upper-level flow. It was n the middle of the Gulf while the models had the front retreating north to Oklahoma. We were below freezing in Houston vs. in the upper 70s. Big ice storm across Texas and that famous play by Leon Lett.

Similarly, I do not believe that the cold air will stall and retreat back to the north this week under SW flow aloft. This means that the cold air across Texas may be deeper than the models are predicting. That giant 50+F warm nose aloft over D-FW may not be so large. Might increase the risk of freezing rain/sleet there, but the cold air probably won't be deep enough for snow. I think that the front may move south of Houston on Wednesday vs. Friday.

Great explanation as that was really throwing me for a loop with the return flow on Thursday. If I recall models were also doing this sort of thing last year with the big Feb outbreak (obviously different scenarios in terms of strength/impact) but similar struggles with models.

Yep, was just about to say this. Twister is right. Models said the front would come in on Sunday night but crept down on Thursday. Same for North tx too. Front comes through denver area here today. Was 65 at 4pm yesterday coming back from Crested Butte. My first real taste of winter this week. Temps wont crack 20 for the week.

[txtwister78]

No big changes with the 12z NAM (maybe a few degrees "warmer" overall this run) and as a result the freezing rain/sleet line adjusted slightly north, but I suspect this back & forth will continue going forward. The temp forecast seems pretty much locked in though overall give or take a few degrees with the NAM.

[wxman57]

So are you predicting colder, more precip and longer then what the models are saying? I remember that storm and Leon Lett.

That was good storm and my dad driving home was interesting from North Dallas to Lewisville.

I'm not saying more precip, necessarily, just that the models may be incorrectly stalling the southward movement of the cold air due to SW winds aloft.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

My $.02 for the ice storm. I think a line SW and NE of College Station (maybe a bit south of CS) will see a serious ice storm. Not liking the surface temps at all from the models.

[Haris]

My $.02 for the ice storm. I think a line SW and NE of College Station (maybe a bit south of CS) will see a serious ice storm. Not liking the surface temps at all from the models.

It’ll get cold enough for central Texas for ice but we won’t have as much lift as NTX and especially Arkansas. So I don’t think we get ice storm criteria down here

[Brent]

Winter Storm Watch here for up to a half inch of ice and an inch of sleet and snow

[txtwister78]

Winter Storm Watch here for up to a half inch of ice and an inch of sleet and snow

Definitely warranted up there.

[txtwister78]

While we focus on the NAM, one thing to point out is we do have some short-range models to examine now other than the NAM and two are coming in "warmer" at 51 and 60 hours out (RAP & FV3). Both also show considerably less precip overall compared to the globals at max range (better moisture across Arkansas and NE Oklahoma).

The WRF-NSSL and ARW2 are colder though (48 hours out) than the FV3 and RAP so we continue to wait for some clarity. My guess nothing changes significantly across area forecast offices today. Globals continue to struggle (including ICON although slighty colder).

[cheezyWXguy]

While we focus on the NAM, one thing to point out is we do have some of the short-range models to examine now other than the NAM and two are coming in "warmer" at 51 and 60 hours out (RAP & FV3). Both also show considerably less precip overall compared to the globals at max range (better moisture across Arkansas and NE Oklahoma).

The WRF-NSSL and ARW2 are colder though (48 hours out) than the FV3 and RAP so we continue to wait for some clarity. My guess nothing changes significantly across area forecast offices today. Globals continue to struggle (including ICON although slighty colder).

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2022022115/051/sfct.us_sc.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ncep-wrf-fv3-conus/tx/t2m_f/1645444800/1645660800-XbuiVSLdOCA.png

Not sure how the RAP handled temps in the last event, but the FV3 was consistently way too warm. I haven’t seen much that makes me think it has a reliable depiction of the upcoming event.

[txtwister78]

While we focus on the NAM, one thing to point out is we do have some of the short-range models to examine now other than the NAM and two are coming in "warmer" at 51 and 60 hours out (RAP & FV3). Both also show considerably less precip overall compared to the globals at max range (better moisture across Arkansas and NE Oklahoma).

The WRF-NSSL and ARW2 are colder though (48 hours out) than the FV3 and RAP so we continue to wait for some clarity. My guess nothing changes significantly across area forecast offices today. Globals continue to struggle (including ICON although slighty colder).

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2022022115/051/sfct.us_sc.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ncep-wrf-fv3-conus/tx/t2m_f/1645444800/1645660800-XbuiVSLdOCA.png

Not sure how the RAP handled temps in the last event, but the FV3 was consistently way too warm. I haven’t seen much that makes me think it has a reliable depiction of the upcoming event.

RAP did pretty well with temps but was a bit too quick with the snow changeover up in the DFW region. NAM wasn't that great though in early Feb so not every event is the same.