Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Brent]

The latest HRRR and RAP models are showing several inches of snow in DFW with a 6 inch bulls-eye just northwest of there with snow still falling when the run ends tomorrow morning. The model simulated radar reflectivity shows some heavy snowfall bands moving east across north Texas with this system.

Seems to be a trend among the hi-res models(which I usually find quite reliable) with a good snowstorm.

[hriverajr]

Kind of looks like the low is digging South at this time. I don't know, it's kind of hard to tell.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SWR/COMP/&NUMBLOOP=10

Looking at the 24 hour animation, yes it has been digging a little more SSE, will be interesting when it decides to make the eastern turn. Also interesting is a patch of colder 850 temps in west central Texas.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Norman NWS just issued a WWA for the Red River Counties of southeastern/south-central Oklahoma for 1-3" of snow. It appears they are using the HRRR and RAP as guidance. Maybe the FW NWS will upgrade to WSWarnings for some parts of north Texas.

[dhweather]

The TV media in DFW sure is trying to totally downplay tomorrow.

[iorange55]

The TV media in DFW sure is trying to totally downplay tomorrow.

That's a good thing. We want everything to be like 2010. I am considering moving to my old house before the storm hits. Just to make sure everything is perfect.

[TheProfessor]

My snow fall map!

Professor, you have learned a lot since you stared here on the forum, a lot more than I have. But your handwriting is awful.

Yeah I have dysgraphia so my handwriting fairly bad. Thank goodness for typing and microsoft word!

[gpsnowman]

Steve McCauley's Stat Method snow projection map should roll out in the next thirty minutes! Fingers crossed.

[Texas Snowman]

Norman NWS just issued a WWA for the Red River Counties of southeastern/south-central Oklahoma for 1-3" of snow. It appears they are using the HRRR and RAP as guidance. Maybe the FW NWS will upgrade to WSWarnings for some parts of north Texas.

Yeah, that's VERY interesting to me. They (Norman NWS) have totally downplayed this since the beginning, saying that snow would primarily be south of their forecast area.

And then this pops up about a half-hour ago:


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
452 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

OKZ050>052-TXZ089-090-251200-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0023.150225T0600Z-150225T1800Z/
LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARIETTA...MADILL...DURANT...
ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
452 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING: LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
ADVISORY AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 6 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SLEET MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR AS WELL WHEN PRECIPITATION
BEGINS.

* MAIN IMPACT: 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW

* OTHER IMPACTS: SLICK AND HAZARDOUS ROADS WILL LIKELY RESULT AND
IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

MBS

[hriverajr]

My snow fall map!

Professor, you have learned a lot since you stared here on the forum, a lot more than I have. But your handwriting is awful.

Yeah I have dysgraphia so my handwriting fairly bad. Thank goodness for typing and microsoft word!

Is that what is called.. I have had terrible handwriting every since kinder.....

[Texas Snowman]

Norman NWS doing that suggests to me that they are buying a more northward push of the precipitation shield with those short range model trends.

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile crickets can be heard out of scenic southwest Austin...

[Texas Snowman]

Portastorm was on here earlier. Said he was intrigued by the model showing decent snows in central Texas on Friday.

[Brent]

^ That's gotta bode really well for us... since it is highly likely it will snow more here.

[Texas Snowman]

Porta come back we have a chance... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs ... X_f075.gif

Trends are really in our favor in the Austin area for friday. However, tonight is going to be close.

Actually, this shows the better chances for a good snow down towards Austin. Definitely snow up in North Texas but the lollipop is closer to the PWC headquarters.

[Texas Snowman]

From Steve LaNore, chief met at KXII-TV, Channel 12 in Denison/Sherman:

"A fast-moving trough will zip across Texas on Wednesday, Feb 25th, and bring the potential for a couple of inches of snow to the southeastern half of Texoma. The map below shows the chances of getting an inch or more of snow on Feb 25th:

As for maximum amounts, 2 to 3 inches of accumulation is possible from Gainesville-Sherman-Paris southward with more like an inch around Durant and Hugo. Snow will melt quickly as highs rise into the 40s Wednesday afternoon.

Since this is a fairly compact system, the snow area will cut off quite sharply and it looks like very little snow will fall north of Ardmore.

All of Texoma sees a chance of snow on Friday, Feb 27th as a stubborn late-winter comeback continues."

[Texas Snowman]

Looks like 33 is our high today.

[Texas Snowman]

Already some radar returns showing up in the western Panhandle not far from Muleshoe and in eastern New Mexico near Clovis.

[TarrantWx]

Latest HRRR shows a band of 4-6" accumulations from Abilene to Bowie with a bullseye of 6-8" close to Mineral Wells at the end of it's run (12z). It has the heavy snow band oriented ENE rather than E and has it moving east at the end of it's run. It also has snow out ahead of this band. I'm also seeing some elevated CAPE available so perhaps someone could get lucky and get some thundersnow?

[Texas Snowman]

We'll cross the 300 page threshold shortly. If there is a good snow event at the end of the week, I'd suspect that will push us towards 350 pages. And if there's something towards the end of next week, who knows, maybe we'll go past 400?

[Texas Snowman]

Latest HRRR shows a band of 4-6" accumulations from Abilene to Bowie with a bullseye of 6-8" close to Mineral Wells at the end of it's run (12z). It has the heavy snow band oriented ENE rather than E and has it moving east at the end of it's run. It also has snow out ahead of this band. I'm also seeing some elevated CAPE available so perhaps someone could get lucky and get some thundersnow?

Thundersnow? Where's Jim Cantore?!?