Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[vbhoutex]

Has anyone looked at radar lately? What is that I see moving in from the SW towards FW?

[wgdade]

Looks like the I-20 snow storm is back in business. Looks like 3 to 5 inches possible from the Metroplex to Jackson, MS and all places in between. 12Z NAM BUFKIT data puts about 5" in Tyler, and that is after 6 hours of rain. Profile suports all snow except the at the surface which I think is too warm. We shall see. Someone will get a nice surprise the way this looks.

You better hope the Canadian isn't right...there is more than 5" on that model.

I saw that. Someone is going to get a surprise. Look for Winter Storm Watches soon.

[msstateguy83]

the canadian model damn.. if some of these amts verifys wow...


edit: i would think all regional offices are coordinating w/eachother this morning
one would think.. and yes we should be seeing wsw coming out in the near future
with this event 24 hrs or less away from starting... i would expect them from the red river
south and as far e as east tx...

[ColdFusion]

All I have to say is if there is a real chance we could get 5+ inches. And they only predict a rain snow mix with less than an inch accumulation it's not going to look good. But the same could be said for the other end of the spectrum, so I don't get why they can't just meet in the middle.

I hear what you are saying, I just dont know if one model run dramatically changes the thinking of the NWS yet, and I dont know if it should.

[msstateguy83]

coldfusion but it was showing a major event to start off with then went to
a warmer solution, now we are back. so that should give even more of a
concern of this panning out...

[cwp419]

Light snow being reported at Randolph Air Base on the NE side of SA.

[iorange55]

All I have to say is if there is a real chance we could get 5+ inches. And they only predict a rain snow mix with less than an inch accumulation it's not going to look good. But the same could be said for the other end of the spectrum, so I don't get why they can't just meet in the middle.

I hear what you are saying, I just dont know if one model run dramatically changes the thinking of the NWS yet, and I dont know if it should.

It's been a few now, though. With the NAM. Also the other models haven't changed, just the GFS AND NAM. The NWS changed their tune quite quickly when it went warmer, they weren't afraid to latch onto that with one or two model runs. I get they don't want to say the sky is falling, and they shouldn't.


But I mean there is a lot of pro mets here expecting 3-5 inches or more.

[msstateguy83]

fws zones has 100% chance of rain/snow for most areas tomorrow i dk
if it did earlyer or if thats new or not...

[iorange55]

fws zones has 100% chance of rain/snow for most areas tomorrow i dk
if it did earlyer or if thats new or not...

It's been there.

[msstateguy83]

those highs for the ft worth zones are likely to high for today also w/the cloud cover imo...

[utweather]

Has anyone posted Larry Cosgrove's forecast yet? If not, here's the link. It certainly appears he does not agree with the DFW NWS's current forecast.

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... iner-email

How could he predict 8 inches, and the NWS says we'll be lucky to have an inch accumulate? THIS IS MADNESS!

Look at the pic at the bottom of the page of the subtropical jet. Wow, LOADS of moisture coming in. We need that to moisten the atmosphere pre low development in the Gulf. Looking good folks in Dallas. My drive will be very interesting

Looks like Pacific moisture is "Good" and hopefully gulf moisture is not too "BAD" ie too overwhelming, although you guys in Dallas look to be very lucky. Maybe that thick snowpack in the northeast can act as some undercuting wall of influence all the way down here and keep us cold for all this moisture thats coming.

Edit: Oops, forgot about the Appalachians, lol

[wxman22]

12z GFS is colder in the 500mb level and 850mb temps are colder too over Southeast Texas.The Canadian model scenario of snow as far south as the Houston area may not be that far fetched afterall...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

those highs for the ft worth zones are likely to high for today also w/the cloud cover imo...

iagree 100%. Here in E Texas, i dont think we get above 40 F. They are forecasting 46 F. Lower the better. I predict it will be snowing/sleeting here in Nacogdoches by 8PM

[Portastorm]

Sleet now falling at the NWSFO in New Braunfels!

[msstateguy83]

snow in kerrville...

[LearnedHat]

Please pardon my ignorance on all this; I am new and no nothing of the science. I was just wondering: So if we get to much moisture from the Gulf, that means that warmeer air brought it in and we are not likely to maintain enough stable cold air for surface snow or accumulations. Is the cold air a "layer" that the southern stuff slides over or does it just push against it and intermingle? Best case/Worst case (depending on if you are a student or are trying to close a deal tomorrow) - for real snow we need good moisture from the Gulf and some from the West but not too much from the Gulf? Even if we keep low surface temperatures but we get a lot of moisture - can the precip itself warm the lower air mass?

[srainhoutx]

Sleet now falling at the NWSFO in New Braunfels!

You gave up too soon.

[Weatherdude20]

Radar, and reports lead to snow in Kerrville...

[msstateguy83]

never give up on texas weather until the very last second

[Portastorm]

Sleet now falling at the NWSFO in New Braunfels!

You gave up too soon.

I know, I know ... but I made that post with the "anti-jinx" mentality!

Things certainly are developing down here a little different than planned. Precip is starting earlier and appears to not be mixing with rain. All frozen. Nothing in Austin yet but you see the reports from locales south and west of us.