Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Texas Snowman]

And there we go my friends, much to the chagrin of Heat Miser, we're at 300 pages and counting!!!

[iorange55]

Steve McCauley's stat method showing 3-5 inches for most of the area. Higher amounts out east.

[Brent]

Steve McCauley's stat method showing 3-5 inches for most of the area. Higher amounts out east.

I'd be thrilled with this tbh

[Tcu101]

GO STAT METHOD !!

[Texas Snowman]

I'm a little surprised at that - figured his stat method would go for less than that for DFW.

Interesting to see if the HRRR idea of heavier snow to the NW of Fort Worth materializes.

[Texas Snowman]

Steve McCauley's stat method showing 3-5 inches for most of the area. Higher amounts out east.

If this is right, it would look like Gilmer and Quitman would be the bull's eye. I guess we'll see.

[Tcu101]

It would also be one slushy mess for the DFW morning commute. I'm sure schools are less inclined to cancel classes with this system than the last… More likely delays

[Yukon Cornelius]

Latest HRRR shows a band of 4-6" accumulations from Abilene to Bowie with a bullseye of 6-8" close to Mineral Wells at the end of it's run (12z). It has the heavy snow band oriented ENE rather than E and has it moving east at the end of it's run. It also has snow out ahead of this band. I'm also seeing some elevated CAPE available so perhaps someone could get lucky and get some thundersnow?

Could you post up a link or pic?

[TarrantWx]

Latest HRRR shows a band of 4-6" accumulations from Abilene to Bowie with a bullseye of 6-8" close to Mineral Wells at the end of it's run (12z). It has the heavy snow band oriented ENE rather than E and has it moving east at the end of it's run. It also has snow out ahead of this band. I'm also seeing some elevated CAPE available so perhaps someone could get lucky and get some thundersnow?

Could you post up a link or pic?

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displ ... t5&adtfn=1

[Ntxw]

Latest HRRR shows a band of 4-6" accumulations from Abilene to Bowie with a bullseye of 6-8" close to Mineral Wells at the end of it's run (12z). It has the heavy snow band oriented ENE rather than E and has it moving east at the end of it's run. It also has snow out ahead of this band. I'm also seeing some elevated CAPE available so perhaps someone could get lucky and get some thundersnow?

Could you post up a link or pic?

And this is before the trowal really cranks. NE Texas will get the most precip as the HRRR hasn't gone that far yet. Quite the impressive deformation band that intensifies and pulls back. 5h low is very strong if it goes negative tilt look out.

[Ralph's Weather]

Tons of schools closing tomorrow already in East Texas. That Stat Method forecast is impressive and matches pretty well with my map.

[Ntxw]

There is a model consensus even from the GFS and that map from McCauley seems to fit right in with it.

[Ntxw]

So since it's been awhile since we've seen a deepening low cross Texas (aside from the panhandle) so what does a deformation/trowal look like? Look for the comma and the head of it, is it. The most recent very strong deformation band I can point out is the Christmas eve blizzard in 2009.



Of course that was a much more intense and powerful low.

[Tcu101]

So since it's been awhile since we've seen a deepening low cross Texas (aside from the panhandle) so what does a deformation/trowal look like? Look for the comma and the head of it, is it. The most recent very strong deformation band I can point out is the Christmas eve blizzard in 2009.



Of course that was a much more intense and powerful low.

Was there severe weather in Arkansas/LA during that storm?? From the looks of that surface map it looks like a classic setup of severe weather??

[Brent]

So since it's been awhile since we've seen a deepening low cross Texas (aside from the panhandle) so what does a deformation/trowal look like? Look for the comma and the head of it, is it. The most recent very strong deformation band I can point out is the Christmas eve blizzard in 2009.



Of course that was a much more intense and powerful low.

That looks too sweet for words.

[texas1836]

31' at the DWC in McKinney. Hopefully this system will not start out as rain, and BAM, another 2010 snow.

[DonWrk]

Radar starting to come to life out in west Texas

[Tcu101]

Radar returns near Fort Stockon have really fired up

[Texas Snowman]

Yup, returns from Alpine up to Dalhart.

[Ntxw]

It's coming folks