Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

18Z run of the GFS looks better for snow. I need more consistency though.

Wizzard said yesterday that the 18Z run was the worst.

[andrewr]

The way this winter has been going I'm not even going to take into consideration the models when it comes to snow and cold (they did do a good job on the rain though). Instead I'm going by how they forecasted in the old days; If it is snowing, then it is probably going to snow.

[R-Dub]

Another reason I feel good about cold and snow coming up is the fact that we are having wild temp swings. Typically when we get this warm during the middle of winter, we end up very cold a few weeks later. I remember many times in the past where I would think about, or auctually get my jetski out, and have some fun in the middle of winter! Just to have to worry about rewinterizing it a few weeks later because of cold air blasting us.

If I wasn't so tired, and be such a hassle to unwinterize, then rewinterize my water toys I would be out there right now. There are a few other people out there playing on the lake though!! Just 4 days ago the lake was 70% covered in ice, with snow on top I would call that a wild temp swing, and expect the pendelum to keep swinging

[R-Dub]

Double T...Did you get my PM????

[W13]

How are those tapes coming R-Dub? I can't wait to view them!

[W13]

Currently 60 F as of 4:25 PM, after a high of 64 F earlier today.

[W13]

Latest NWS Forecast Discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST WED JAN 19 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN A WET
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY BEFORE RAIN
SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS...FIRMLY...PLANTED OVER
THE REGION WITH RECORD TEMPERATURES FALLING BY THE WAYSIDE. WE HAD
HIGH TEMP RECORDS YESTERDAY AND TODAY...RECORDS FOR THE WARMEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY AND MOST LIKELY TODAY AS WELL.
WARMEST LOCATION NOTED THUS FAR WAS PORT ANGELES AT 68 DEGREES. THE
ADDITIONAL HEAT THERE WAS THE RESULT OF A SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE
WARMING EVENT OFF THE OLYMPICS. THE FIRST TIME I HAVE SEEN THAT
THERE TO THIS MAGNITUDE. WE EVEN HAVE STAMPEDE PASS AT 57 DEGREES
THIS HOUR. KINDA WONDER WHAT MONTH THIS IS?

RAIN HAS REMAIN N OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NW PART OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA WHERE IT HAS BEEN RAINING
OFF AND ON. HOWEVER THIS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA BY DAWN THU. THE BAND HAS
ALREADY SHOWN ITS TENDENCY TOWARD A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR SO. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THU
BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY. LOOKS AS THOUGH WILL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH IN THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS TO
SEVERAL INCHES IN THE FAVORED REGIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST
FLOOD GUIDANCE COMING OUT A BIT LATER THIS EVENING WILL ADDRESS HOW
THIS WILL OR WILL NOT AFFECT THE RIVERS.

WILL HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATER THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI BEFORE
THE NEXT SHOT OF RAIN CATCHES UP WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SOURCE OF PROBLEMS AS FAR AS RUNOFF IS CONCERNED
AS THE RAINFALL WILL BE FAIRLY HEAVY AT TIMES. HOWEVER WE MAY NOT BE
GETTING THE WORST OF IT AND AT THIS POINT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE
COMING IN SURGES WHICH WILL GIVE THE RIVERS SHORT REST PERIODS. WILL
NEED TO LOOK INTO THAT A LITTLE CLOSER TOMORROW.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE...LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. THERE WILL BE A BIT
OF A COOLING TREND FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE
COOLING WE WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. NORMAL
LOWS ARE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 35 AND NORMAL HIGHS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 45. CERNIGLIA
&&

[W13]

http://www.summit-at-snoqualmie.com/info/winter/cams.asp

Bare spots are popping up now, even just from this morning there are quite a bit more. And if tonight's rain is heavy enough I bet there will be almost no snow left tomorrow.

Probably the last time we will be seeing any snow up there for at least a week.

[andrewr]

I'm surprised, but Snoqualmie's Summit West plans to open tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

I am sad about the snow situation... but I love the warm weather.

Did I mention that yet??

[W13]

I am sad about the snow situation... but I love the warm weather.

Did I mention that yet??

Only a few times!

[AnthonyC]

Not much activity on this thread tonight. But let the East coast people enjoy there coming storm this weekend...it will once again be our turn before you know it!! Pretty calm, mild night tonight...at least compared to the last two nights. Cloudy and temperatures still near 60 F!! Unbelievable. Tonight and most of Thursday look wet...nothing extreme, but you'll notice it. Saturday looks to be the big one...another 1-3 inches of rain in the lowlands, 2-6 inches in the Olympics/Cascade range. Next week, a more zonal flow develops which should lower snow levels to more appropriate levels...3-4k. Hopefully we can start over again...since we'll be at 0 by the end of this weekend. Next weekend and beyond starts to look interesting, but it's too early to get into specifics. Latest PNA forecasts look awesome...severely negative by the end of the month/beginning of February. Only time will tell.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

Yeah very quiet tonight!! Does look like the rain is just to my north now, about another 2hrs and it will be wet here. Currently 56 degrees. What a day today, though it was very humid feeling. PNA indeed looking very good, I am going out on a limb, but I will say we will have a significant snowfall by the first week of Feb! Cold temps as well, possibly teens. Winter is not over, not by a long shot

[snow_wizzard]

TT...I like the warmth because it means we are going to get SLAMMED within the next 2 - 3 weeks!

You must admit the 18z and PNA do not look warm by months end!

[snow_wizzard]

68 at Port Angeles?

The warmest Covington ever got was 60. In light of the truly FREAKY temps of the past two days, I think we should be ready for just about anything. The old law of physics...for every action there is an opposite and equal reaction. The opposite of this is WICKED cold. A nice old saying to contemplate....A January spring ain't worth a thing....

[andrewr]

If you read that on KOMO, it was upgraded to 69 at Port Angeles on their 5pm newscast. TT got to 68.8. I "only" got to 63.3 here.

[snow_wizzard]

69! That means I have to add another .

[andycottle]

Hey guys! I have to agree with today feeling very spring/early summer like. Wow...how nice to have such wam temps in mid January! But here in my area and aside from having unusually very mild temps during the winter on some days...we usually dont see a temp of 65 or higher, untill about mid-late March. So definally WARM today!

Our weather today was very nice, though we had light overcast skies, but still with a good deal of sun shining through. Our high today was 65 with a low of 55.

-- Andy

[andycottle]

Hi folks.

Viewing tonights new run of the 00z GFS...tomorrow looks to be another dry day, though will probably see cloudy skies for much of the day untill the rain arrives early to late in the evening...per Western Wa. graphical forecasts. MOS for Seattle has a high of 54, though we could hit 60, but if we do indeed have thoes cloudy skies tomorrow, then we may not be as mild as we were today. Friday will have showers of .10" of precip or less. So only expecting light showers. For Saturday and Sunday, thoes days are looking soaking wet...as we could recieve 1.50" to 1.75" worth of rain...per 36hr precip totalts ending 06 sunday evening.

Looking at the long range...18z shows slightly cooler weather by months end, but am not seeing that on tonights 00z GFS. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

06Z run of the GFS not looking good for snow in the lowlands.

The GFS has been pretty consistent with the theme of zonal flow next week and then some amplification.

The amplifcation is not enough to bring snow to the lowlands and the latest run has quite a large ridge over us in 2 weeks.