Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

I'll tell y'all something else ... we could probably fill up 50 pages of a thread about the intricacies of last night/today's winter weather event in south central and southeast Texas along with the societal and political ramifications of how businesses and schools handled things.

I was talking to a private sector met today (he's not on this board) about how dry air mixing impacted precipitation in the Hill Country and South Central Texas -- it was one reason why the radar looked so promising last night but most of the precip falling didn't reach ground. In some ways, the higher qpf numbers from last night's 0z NAM weren't that far off ... but the problem was dry air mixing and extremely low dew points. I won't even get into the school closing stuff. But it's a hot button issue in the greater Austin area today, especially on social media. Some districts (and universities) just totally choked on their duties IMO.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Were not done yet, precip is forming west of SE TX
Albiet light but its sleeting a good amount here.

[Rgv20]

Not everyday you see this kind of discussion out of Brownsville..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
217 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. FREEZE WARNING EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
ALL AREAS. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXTENDED OUT TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN POSTED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A RARE WINTER EVENT. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE COLDEST AIR TO MIX
WITH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A SHOT OF A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE OF
FREEZING RAIN ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE THIS HAZARD AS WELL.
WILL BE MONITORING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NW MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
ROCKIES. ENERGY FROM THE MEXICO LOW TO HELP SATURATE AND PRODUCE
LIFTING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHILE THE SHORTWAVE USHERS IN ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN AIR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BEST
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SLEET BUT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
DYNAMICAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE COOLING THE ENTIRE COLUMN NEAR
FREEZING. ALL BUT A THIN LAYER BETWEEN 5000-7500 FEET IS INDICATED
TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 32. IF THIS LAYER COOLS TO 32 OR BELOW SNOW
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY ELEMENT TO FALL. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WITH ONLY A MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF ALL
FROZEN.

TIMING...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO APPROACH FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCH LANDS AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED LOWERING THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. THE MIX BAG TO BEGIN AT THIS TIME WITH BEST CHANCES AND
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM. CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING OF
THE UPPER LOW AND WHERE IT WILL BE LOCATED BY 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MODEL
OF CHOICE IS THE GFS WHICH HAS THE UPPER LOW TROUGH AXIS NEARING
SOUTH TEXAS AT 6 AM AND OVER THE CWA BY NOON. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS
TO MOVE WELL EAST BY NOON WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF QUICKLY
WEST TO EAST. ENDING TIME COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS IN THIS
CHALLENGING FORECAST.

IMPACTS...FIRST WIND CHILLS TO PLUMMET THIS EVENING AS THE SECOND
SURGE WORKS ITS SOUTH. NORTH WINDS TO REMAIN 15G25 MUCH OF THE NIGHT
DROPPING WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20-30 DEGREES. FREEZING CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT AND THE MID
AND AFTER 2 AM. THERE WILL BE 4 TO 8 HOURS OF TEMPERATURES 32
DEGREES OR LOWER. AS FOR THE WINTRY MIX AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE
HALF INCH OF SLEET AND SNOW IS LIKELY WITH AMOUNTS ABOVE THESE
AMOUNTS LESS LIKELY. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL MOST ANTICIPATED ON
GRASSY SURFACES WITH SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WHERE EXPOSURE IS BETTER. AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH
OF SNOW AND SLEET IS ANTICIPATED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH
OF SNOW. SOME AREAS OF ICE GLAZING ARE POSSIBLE BUT WITH WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES AN EXTENDED OR EXPANSIVE ICING SITUATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ANY ACCRETION WILL BE LESS THAN ONE EIGHTH
OF AN INCH.

LATER WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND THE BRIEF WINTER
CONDITIONS END. BELIEVE PRECIP LINE TO SHARPLY END BEFORE NOON EVEN
WITH GFS LINGER RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GOING FORECAST LEANS
WITH THE GFS BUT AS MENTION EVERYTHING COULD END EARLIER.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME CLIMBING WITH STILL CAA
CONTINUING IN THE MORNING AND CLOUDS NOT THINNING UNTIL THE EVENING.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT TRENDED A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE
MET/NAM.

[Cuda17]

Were not done yet, precip is forming west of SE TX
Albiet light but its sleeting a good amount here.

I just had a nice dousing of sleet come through here... did not expect that.

[Portastorm]

Were not done yet, precip is forming west of SE TX
Albiet light but its sleeting a good amount here.

I just had a nice dousing of sleet come through here... did not expect that.

There's clearly more light returns on radar heading your way. Continuing light sleet in southeast Texas looks pretty likely IMO.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/flash-wv.html

Me and a few guys have been chatting about this all day. SRain had a post about it as well.

This is happening, what do we expect Mets? This could be....shall i say epic? I really dont want to jinx anything though....


Temp 32.0F
Dewpoint 22.0F

Getting drier too

[davidiowx]

Precip looks to be expanding, although barely hitting the ground. There are a few light sprinkles mixed with sleet outside right now!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=hgx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Snowman67]

Were not done yet, precip is forming west of SE TX
Albiet light but its sleeting a good amount here.

I just had a nice dousing of sleet come through here... did not expect that.

There's clearly more light returns on radar heading your way. Continuing light sleet in southeast Texas looks pretty likely IMO.

Yup. Light sleet falling again.

[davidiowx]

Were not done yet, precip is forming west of SE TX
Albiet light but its sleeting a good amount here.

I just had a nice dousing of sleet come through here... did not expect that.

There's clearly more light returns on radar heading your way. Continuing light sleet in southeast Texas looks pretty likely IMO.

I am trying not to get excited lol. I just can't see anything significant out of this, but this is TX and crazy things can happen in Winter here!

[stormywaves]

Light sleet Downtown right now.

[Portastorm]

Light sleet Downtown right now.

Where's "Downtown?" It would help if you updated your profile and let us know where you are.

[Tireman4]

Downtown Cut and Shoot...?

[srainhoutx]

Light snow flurries and light sleet pellets are reaching the ground here in NW Harris County at this hour.

[stormywaves]

Lol sorry I am near downtown Houston (more Midtown). Highway 288 and 59. Sleet is really light now more rain. I posted but I don't think it went through.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

There is a batch of moisture N of Vistoria with my name on it in Sugar Land/Missouri City, we will see if it makes it to the ground. I forgot to check my DP as it was sleeting, i think it got to 27, right now its falling and at 22.5F.

[Tireman4]

Lol sorry I am near downtown Houston (more Midtown). Highway 288 and 59. Sleet is really light now more rain. I posted but I don't think it went through.

Put where you live or work on your profile....

[stormywaves]

I don't post too often but I love to read. Do you think they will extend the advisory for the Houston area?

[Red Raider fan]

Ok i'm confused, why is Brownsville talking about a second surge of cold arctic air moving in there and i havent heard of that for my neck of the woods?

[Portastorm]

I don't post too often but I love to read. Do you think they will extend the advisory for the Houston area?

We're glad you're here and thanks for updating your profile. And to answer your question, no, I do not think HGX will extend the Winter Weather Advisory for the overnight.

[cperez291]

Will be waiting for the rare winter event here in South Texas. I am from Harlingen will be posting pics if this happens!!