Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Portastorm]

I’m not great at reading the models but from what I can tell there aren’t any major changes for Austin area with the GFS.

In talking with several area meteorologists, the only changes I would point out is that there is thinking now that we may end up with less freezing rain and more sleet. The air column above us looks like it may cool faster than originally thought. Still looks like maybe a half inch to an inch of snow to fall on top of whatever freezing rain/sleet falls earlier on Tuesday.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

By the way congratulations to the thread for 300 pages!!! This marks an important milestone in the limited years we have carried. 300+ pages is the earmark for a great winter if you look back

Pleasantly surprised this winter. Expected a big cold event or two with quick warm ups, but this year has just stayed cold! Been great!

[Texas Snowman]

By the way congratulations to the thread for 300 pages!!! This marks an important milestone in the limited years we have carried. 300+ pages is the earmark for a great winter if you look back

And it’s 300 pages on January 15th. If February and March cooperate, who knows how many pages we’ll end up with!

[bubba hotep]

Given the language used in the warning statements it wouldn't be surprising to see a few of the advisory counties get upgraded. The SREF, HRRRx & RGEM are more aggressive on the NW edge than the NAMs.

[Toadfrog]

Bringing in folks from south Texas tomorrow for interviews in Austin. Best bet at this point is to cancel and keep all safe. I don't see the forecast trending warmer or less aggressive. Agreed?

[Portastorm]

Bringing in folks from south Texas tomorrow for interviews in Austin. Best bet at this point is to cancel and keep all safe. I don't see the forecast trending warmer or less aggressive. Agreed?

Definitely. I've been told that many local ISDs will be doing conference calls this afternoon to determine status for Tuesday. And I'm thinking by this evening most, if not all, local ISDs will be closed tomorrow. Government agencies and businesses likely to follow.

The only trend I have noticed besides a quicker front is that the latest NAM ups our precip total by .20". And that would mean more frozen stuff (more aggressive).

[srainhoutx]

Just released Update from Jeff:

After reviewing the latest meso scale guidance some changes are required to the onset timing of freezing precipitation on Tuesday. This timing will also match better with current NWS timing graphics on their webpage.

Short range guidance is showing a faster and more aggressive frontal passage over the area late tonight into early Tuesday with a faster progression of the freezing line across the region and to the coast. It is increasingly likely that the freezing line will reach the US 59 corridor by 800-900am and toward the coast west of Freeport by noon. This will result in an earlier onset timing of the freezing precipitation over the region and deteroriation of travel conditions especially on bridges and overpasses.

No changes are currently required to accumulations across the region. In fact some of the short range guidance rapidly ends precipitation from N to S Tuesday afternoon while the larger global models hang on to the precipitation a little longer into the evening hours.

The following timelines have been updated to reflect the latest thinking


•NW of LaGrange to Huntsville: Onset freezing rain 200-400am Tuesday. Ice accumulation up to .10 of an inch. Hazardous travel all day


•N of HWY 105: Onset freezing rain 400-700am Tuesday. Ice accumulation of .06 to .10 of an inch. Hazardous travel early Tuesday morning


•N of US 59 including metro Houston: Onset freezing rain 800-1000am. Ice Accumulation .05 to .08 of an inch. Hazardous travel starting mid morning


•Coastal areas: Onset of freezing rain 1100am-100pm. Ice accumulation .01 to .05 of an inch. Hazardous travel starting around noon


•Precipitation should gradually end from N to S Tuesday evening, but very cold temperature will maintain icy conditions through mid morning on Wednesday.

[missygirl810]

Is it looking to be worse for Dallas and northeast of Dallas?

[NotSparta]

By the way congratulations to the thread for 300 pages!!! This marks an important milestone in the limited years we have carried. 300+ pages is the earmark for a great winter if you look back

And it’s 300 pages on January 15th. If February and March cooperate, who knows how many pages we’ll end up with!

Extrapolating, I think this thread will have at least 600-625 pages, especially since February gets more active

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hows the progression of the front? Ahead of schedule? The HP is a bit behind schedule now it seems. I thought it was slightly ahead in the night but now it looks slightly behind. Snow cover is pretty decent till Nebraska.
Ready for it!

[Toadfrog]

Bringing in folks from south Texas tomorrow for interviews in Austin. Best bet at this point is to cancel and keep all safe. I don't see the forecast trending warmer or less aggressive. Agreed?

Definitely. I've been told that many local ISDs will be doing conference calls this afternoon to determine status for Tuesday. And I'm thinking by this evening most, if not all, local ISDs will be closed tomorrow. Government agencies and businesses likely to follow.

The only trend I have noticed besides a quicker front is that the latest NAM ups our precip total by .20". And that would mean more frozen stuff (more aggressive).

Thanks for the confirmation Portastorm. I looked and see the front is moving quickly. What is you ETA today vs. the after midnight that is forecast?

[dhweather]

By the way congratulations to the thread for 300 pages!!! This marks an important milestone in the limited years we have carried. 300+ pages is the earmark for a great winter if you look back

Like I said - one good winter weather event, easily 80 pages. We may break 400 this year.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Meanwhile up here, all our forecasting office seems to interested in is the big warm up at the end of the week, with highs approaching 70 on Saturday...

[dhweather]

Bringing in folks from south Texas tomorrow for interviews in Austin. Best bet at this point is to cancel and keep all safe. I don't see the forecast trending warmer or less aggressive. Agreed?

Definitely. I've been told that many local ISDs will be doing conference calls this afternoon to determine status for Tuesday. And I'm thinking by this evening most, if not all, local ISDs will be closed tomorrow. Government agencies and businesses likely to follow.

The only trend I have noticed besides a quicker front is that the latest NAM ups our precip total by .20". And that would mean more frozen stuff (more aggressive).

I would concur for the Austin area - guidance has been consistent that you will see frozen precip, and not just freezing drizzle. Should make easy decisions for EM, and not at 4AM.

[Portastorm]

Bringing in folks from south Texas tomorrow for interviews in Austin. Best bet at this point is to cancel and keep all safe. I don't see the forecast trending warmer or less aggressive. Agreed?

Definitely. I've been told that many local ISDs will be doing conference calls this afternoon to determine status for Tuesday. And I'm thinking by this evening most, if not all, local ISDs will be closed tomorrow. Government agencies and businesses likely to follow.

The only trend I have noticed besides a quicker front is that the latest NAM ups our precip total by .20". And that would mean more frozen stuff (more aggressive).

Thanks for the confirmation Portastorm. I looked and see the front is moving quickly. What is you ETA today vs. the after midnight that is forecast?

Based on what I have seen in the last hour (models, actual temps up north, etc.) I think the front will be through Travis County before midnight. I also think NWS will adjust their forecast accordingly in the afternoon package of products. We'll probably see a changeover from freezing rain/drizzle to sleet by 2-3 am. I'd expect light snow to mix in with that sleet by 9-10 am. I also think the precip may end sooner than thought. May be finished right after lunch. We shall see.

[losf1981]

Meanwhile up here, all our forecasting office seems to interested in is the big warm up at the end of the week, with highs approaching 70 on Saturday...

can't believe we're missing out yet again on frozen precip......frustrating.....and then add in this projected 70 degree weather on saturday and I just want to throw up!

[dhweather]

15Z HRRR is optimistic for North Texas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Was just going to say that, my word. Thats a good amount of snow for the ArklaTex region. The run initialized the HP too weak though

[Yukon Cornelius]

Meanwhile up here, all our forecasting office seems to interested in is the big warm up at the end of the week, with highs approaching 70 on Saturday...

can't believe we're missing out yet again on frozen precip......frustrating.....and then add in this projected 70 degree weather on saturday and I just want to throw up!

It’s almost humorous that all of the snow maps literally have accumulating snow 20 miles to our SE. we could easily see a flurry or two I’m thinking. Who knows, surprises happen all of the time in this area.

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile up here, all our forecasting office seems to interested in is the big warm up at the end of the week, with highs approaching 70 on Saturday...

can't believe we're missing out yet again on frozen precip......frustrating.....and then add in this projected 70 degree weather on saturday and I just want to throw up!

It’s almost humorous that all of the snow maps literally have accumulating snow 20 miles to our SE. we could easily see a flurry or two I’m thinking. Who knows, surprises happen all of the time in this area.

Like DFW y'all just need a little to white everything with cold ratios. Number of times with good lift and cold it snows even if not much is on radar or models.