Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 101651
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1051 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.UPDATE...
SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT SLEET AND EVEN A FEW FLAKES OF
SNOW MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THIS MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATIONS AS TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS. HOWEVER
LITTLE WARMING TODAY AND HAVE DROPPED FORECAST MAX TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S MOST AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN LATER THIS EVENING.

[utweather]

C'MON WACO! I'm gonna say I'm cautiously optimistic. Snow but no accumulation with temps never getting below 32 until Fri morning. Jinx it WacoWx, jinx it!

I'm sure that since we can get hailstones that linger for hours on the ground here in the summer time, that your snow will accumulate some good 32 or not.

[Portastorm]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 101651
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1051 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.UPDATE...
SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT SLEET AND EVEN A FEW FLAKES OF
SNOW MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THIS MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATIONS AS TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS. HOWEVER
LITTLE WARMING TODAY AND HAVE DROPPED FORECAST MAX TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S MOST AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN LATER THIS EVENING.

-------
Booo!!!! Hiss!! I want the NWSFO Fort Worth AFD instead!!

[ColdFusion]

.UPDATE...
COMPLICATED FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO SAY THE LEAST.

A good discussion. Mentions the model changes, but points out the difficulties in making the forecast. Lots of 'IF's have to come together for a significant snow event. Will likely be late tonight before we get a better idea of whats going to happen.

[Ntxwx]

Light Snow/Sleet Mix in Dublin, Erath County Report.

[Weatherdude20]

Light accumulations from Taylor county line to Eastland,Brown, and Erath counties.

[msstateguy83]

EDIT: since this scan yellow returns on the radar have increased even more in the area south, east of stephenville which is likely light to mod sleet falling...

[gboudx]

You know DFW ISD's have to be hating this. If it would be fine in the morning, but get progressively worse throughout the day, then what do they do? Just close, or wait it out and risk the roads becoming hazardous? But if you close early to allow the kids to get home before the roads get bad, that affects working parents.

[txagwxman]

Going to snow Dallas...no question about that...
No snow Houston.
Snow College Station thu night/fri morning possible and into Lufkin/Tyler/Longview/Shreveport.

[cwp419]

Going to snow Dallas...no question about that...
No snow Houston.
Snow College Station thu night/fri morning possible and into Lufkin/Tyler/Longview/Shreveport.

What do you think about San Marcos?

[msstateguy83]

txagwxman - a repeat of the sps christmas eve mess? god i hope not a little snow is fine but lord that much snow is just to much for me... lol iam thinking we could get up to 6 inches at this point on the high end here in the falls..

[TeamPlayersBlue]

whats a good local radar site out of Dallas/E. Texas area?

[Weatherdude20]

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=ea ... aqi=j1&oq=

Snowing officialy in Eastland, and 32 degrees

[wxag07]

12z GFS BUFKIT shows atmosphere conducive for all snow tomorrow for DFW with about .5 qpf

[katheria]

EDIT: since this scan yellow returns on the radar have increased even more in the area south, east of stephenville which is likely light to mod sleet falling...

our country house is in walnut springs tx (south of glen rose)
just called our neighbor down there...

he said small light flakes are falling and reaching the ground

[gboudx]

whats a good local radar site out of Dallas/E. Texas area?

http://www.wfaa.com/weather/interactive ... p=regional

Click "Winterize"

[msstateguy83]

not zoomed for good detail but its live from fox 4 out of dallas...

http://www.myfoxdfw.com/subindex/weather/live_radar

[wxman57]

Been busy past 3-4 hrs. New GFS drops DFW temps a few degrees. Forecast sounding shows all snow for the most part. Just a TINY area of 33 to up to 34F temps near the ground. And with snow falling, that could drop below freezing. Precip totals from GFS now at 0.49" liquid. Figuring a 5:1 to 7:1 ratio, that could mean 2-3 inches of snow in the D-FW area.

And that's just the GFS. Haven't had a chance to look at the NAM, and I only have low-res Euro to look at.

DFW Forecast Sounding Animation:
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/readyout/1461 ... f_anim.gif

DFW Meteogram based on 12Z GFS:

[txagwxman]

txagwxman - a repeat of the sps christmas eve mess? god i hope not a little snow is fine but lord that much snow is just to much for me... lol iam thinking we could get up to 6 inches at this point on the high end here in the falls..

I don't think so...moisture will be further south this time...I am curious about that bullseye south of DFW and north of CLL.

[msstateguy83]

there is also the wsi interactive weather radar map its pretty cool

http://www.intellicast.com/content/products/maps/WeatherActiveAlpha/full.htm