Texas Winter 2014-2015

Winter Weather Discussion

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TarrantWx
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#6021 Postby TarrantWx » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:05 pm

Airport weather warning just issued for DFW acknowledges potential for 4-5 inches if the moderate/heavy band moves over the airport. It also acknowledges the potential for 0.50"/hr liquid equivalent rates which would be fairly staggering snow rates. Seems like they might need to issue a warning as soon as they're sure where the heaviest band will set up.

This really has the feel of something significant for DFW. Good luck to you guys down in Austin. I hope you can get in on the action also!
Last edited by TarrantWx on Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6022 Postby Longhornmaniac8 » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:07 pm

hriverajr wrote:It's still digging to southeast imo. No east turn yet..


I would agree. If it continues its trajectory, the center will pass just south of El Paso.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6023 Postby Wntrwthrguy » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:07 pm

JDawg512 wrote:
TarrantWx wrote:
hriverajr wrote:It's still digging to southeast imo. No east turn yet..


Could the system digging further southeast indicate that its taking on more of a neutral to negative tilt than expected?


That's how it seems to me, it looks like it's nudging to the south.

I don't see how Austin will be dry slotted, not with how far south the radar returns are,


Unless the precip is moving northeast. Always seems to miss us. Hoping the low moves more south than the models have predicted but not getting my hopes up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6024 Postby iorange55 » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:09 pm

Bands out west are starting to pick up with intensity. We are certainly off to a good start, but we have a long ways to go. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6025 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:09 pm

Hoping for a little snow at least up here. If not, Friday definitely looks promising.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6026 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:11 pm

iorange55 wrote:Bands out west are starting to pick up with intensity. We are certainly off to a good start, but we have a long ways to go. :wink:


You know, Feb 11 started out with a band that come up from the south and dumped a quick two inches overnight before the main storm even came out. Just advisories for 1-2 inches.
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#6027 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:13 pm

WHERE IS PORTASTORM?!?!?!? :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6028 Postby iorange55 » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:16 pm

Ntxw wrote:
iorange55 wrote:Bands out west are starting to pick up with intensity. We are certainly off to a good start, but we have a long ways to go. :wink:


You know, Feb 11 started out with a band that come up from the south and dumped a quick two inches overnight before the main storm even came out. Just advisories for 1-2 inches.


I remember. :ggreen: Just refreshed the radar. Storms are really beginning to pop southwest!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6029 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:16 pm

Latest WRF has an eye popping 4-6" amounts covering the entire Metroplex....much more in line with the latest short range models
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6030 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:18 pm

orangeblood wrote:Latest WRF has an eye popping 4-6" amounts covering the entire Metroplex....much more in line with the latest short range models


I would not be surprised if FW switched to winter storm warnings, I think it warrants it basically along interstate 20...
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#6031 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:18 pm

I can only hope some of that will nudge its way up to northern Grayson County!
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Re:

#6032 Postby Tcu101 » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:19 pm

TarrantWx wrote:Airport weather warning just issued for DFW acknowledges potential for 4-5 inches if the moderate/heavy band moves over the airport. It also acknowledges the potential for 0.50"/hr liquid equivalent rates which would be fairly staggering snow rates. Seems like they might need to issue a warning as soon as they're sure where the heaviest band will set up.

This really has the feel of something significant for DFW. Good luck to you guys down in Austin. I hope you can get in on the action also!


link?
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6033 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:20 pm

iorange55 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
iorange55 wrote:Bands out west are starting to pick up with intensity. We are certainly off to a good start, but we have a long ways to go. :wink:


You know, Feb 11 started out with a band that come up from the south and dumped a quick two inches overnight before the main storm even came out. Just advisories for 1-2 inches.


I remember. :ggreen: Just refreshed the radar. Storms are really beginning to pop southwest!!!

That's it. Two thirty it is. Not sure if sleep is possible but crap I have to work early. This is too much fun. A large surprise is coming for a lot of Texas folks. Good luck too all!! :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6034 Postby JDawg512 » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:20 pm

Wntrwthrguy wrote:
Unless the precip is moving northeast. Always seems to miss us. Hoping the low moves more south than the models have predicted but not getting my hopes up.


That is true, if the main bulk of the precipitation moves to the northeast then it would skirt us but so far it looks like it's spreading east reaching Junction.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#6035 Postby aggiecutter » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:20 pm

Latest Snowfall potential from Todd Warren's Futurecast Weather Model:

Image
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#6036 Postby opticsguy » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:21 pm

01Z RAP now has .45" sleet for DFW and no snow. New sounding data in the initialization?
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#6037 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:22 pm

It's going to be more than that. That'd be my guess for snowfall totals in N and NE Texas.
Last edited by Texas Snowman on Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#6038 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:22 pm

TarrantWx wrote:Airport weather warning just issued for DFW acknowledges potential for 4-5 inches if the moderate/heavy band moves over the airport. It also acknowledges the potential for 0.50"/hr liquid equivalent rates which would be fairly staggering snow rates. Seems like they might need to issue a warning as soon as they're sure where the heaviest band will set up.

This really has the feel of something significant for DFW. Good luck to you guys down in Austin. I hope you can get in on the action also!


Link please?
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Re: Re:

#6039 Postby TarrantWx » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:23 pm

Brent wrote:
TarrantWx wrote:Airport weather warning just issued for DFW acknowledges potential for 4-5 inches if the moderate/heavy band moves over the airport. It also acknowledges the potential for 0.50"/hr liquid equivalent rates which would be fairly staggering snow rates. Seems like they might need to issue a warning as soon as they're sure where the heaviest band will set up.

This really has the feel of something significant for DFW. Good luck to you guys down in Austin. I hope you can get in on the action also!


Link please?


http://kamala.cod.edu/tx/latest.wwus84.KFWD.html

067
WWUS84 KFWD 250150
AWWDFW
TXZ118-119-250800-

AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
750 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

..AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION


ONSET/END TIMES

2-3 AM THROUGH 9-10 AM

ACCUMULATIONS/PRECIP TYPE/TIMING

RAIN WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL START TO MIX WITH SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME SLEET BEGINNING 2-3 AM. THE MIX WILL TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AROUND 5-7 AM. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END BY 10 AM.
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET WILL BE A TRACE. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL
BE 1-3 INCHES WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 4-5 INCHES IF A BAND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW MOVES OVER THE AIRPORT.

TIME/S/ TEMPERATURE FALLS BELOW /RISES ABOVE/ FREEZING

WILL HOVER AROUND FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT EXPECT TO BE 30-31
DEGREES FROM 5 AM THROUGH 9 AM.

PRECIP RATES GTE ONE HALF INCH AN HOUR ONSET/DURATION

LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF GTE 1/2 INCH MAY OCCUR IN BANDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...IF ONE AFFECTS THE AIRPORT...BETWEEN
6-10 AM.

OTHER THREATS/REMARKS

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
NOON.
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Re:

#6040 Postby Portastorm » Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:27 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:WHERE IS PORTASTORM?!?!?!? :D


I'm here buddy ... I'm watching circumspectly. :wink:
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