Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Tcu101]

From Texas Storm Chasers on Facebook 30 min ago:

Short-term high resolution weather model data along with the first arriving 0Z model data continue to highlight the likelihood for accumulating snow in North and Northeast Texas during the morning hours tomorrow. I am going to go ahead and say that some travel issues are probable as heavy snow will likely cause slush and slick spots on roads in D/FW during the morning rush hour. 1 to 4 inches of snow look likely in D/FW with the potential for up to 5 inches north of D/FW to the Red River including Gainesville, McKinney, Sherman, east to Bonham and Paris south to Interstate 30 in Northeast Texas up to Texarkana. Temperatures will quickly rise above freezing Wednesday Afternoon quickly helping roads clear up. We'll have another update out just before 10 PM and we'll also be doing a live Q&A session at 9:30 PM on YouTube. This remains a dynamic storm system with forecast updates expected. -DavidR

[JDawg512]

I don't think our atmospheric profile looks good for snow but I don't have that info on hand so maybe someone else can take a look.

By 6am tomorrow morning Austin's profile (with wet bulbing) will be sufficient or very close for snow or snow grains if there is moisture around according to RAP soundings.

Thanks for that Ntxw.

[Ralph's Weather]

It is a very complex situation. The key will be how the stuff in West Texas consolidates and at what orientation. This could clobber just about anywhere in the northeast quarter of the state.

[KatDaddy]

Hoping Porta and areas to the NE into NTX and NE get some Winter excitement. Take lots of picts.

[TheProfessor]

I think I just died.

I like this map, I'll take the 7 inches it's showing in Southern Denton County.

[ndale]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
916 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE IS FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR THE RAIN-SNOW MIX
TO REACH PARTS OF GILLESPIE COUNTY...AND TO LOWER HOURLY TEMPERATURE
TRENDS WHERE TEMPS HAVE HOVERED SLIGHTLY BELOW FORECAST MINS IN
SOME AREAS. WESTERLY FLOW OVERRUNNING THE SHALLOW INVERSION WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE
MODIFICATION OF THE INVERSION SHOULD PULL SOME THE NEAR FREEZING
POCKETS OF AIR OVER THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE 30S...BUT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW FALLING FROM ALOFT COULD
WORK COOLER TEMPS BACK INTO OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CURRENT TRENDS FROM AREA RADARS AND THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS SUGGEST THAT HIGHER PRECIP RATES ARE ON TRACK TO STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. THUS THE VERY LIGHT ELEVATED
SNOW SEEN OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IS MORE LIKELY TO EVAPORATE OR
MELT INTO THE WARM NOSE OVER MOST AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ICING ISSUES
OVER OUR NRN HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

[Texas Snowman]

From Texas Storm Chasers on Facebook 30 min ago:

Short-term high resolution weather model data along with the first arriving 0Z model data continue to highlight the likelihood for accumulating snow in North and Northeast Texas during the morning hours tomorrow. I am going to go ahead and say that some travel issues are probable as heavy snow will likely cause slush and slick spots on roads in D/FW during the morning rush hour. 1 to 4 inches of snow look likely in D/FW with the potential for up to 5 inches north of D/FW to the Red River including Gainesville, McKinney, Sherman, east to Bonham and Paris south to Interstate 30 in Northeast Texas up to Texarkana. Temperatures will quickly rise above freezing Wednesday Afternoon quickly helping roads clear up. We'll have another update out just before 10 PM and we'll also be doing a live Q&A session at 9:30 PM on YouTube. This remains a dynamic storm system with forecast updates expected. -DavidR

Interesting stuff tonight for sure. Who will win the snow lottery?

[Brent]

It's a tad higher than it was

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH NOON CST WEDNESDAY...

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE NORTH OF A MINERAL WELLS
TO DALLAS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

[Tcu101]

It's a tad higher than it was

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH NOON CST WEDNESDAY...

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE NORTH OF A MINERAL WELLS
TO DALLAS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

Borderline Warning Criteria

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
933 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPECT SNOW TO COMMENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT AND
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME BANDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20/I-30. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BUT WILL MENTION 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
MINERAL WELLS TO DALLAS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

WE MAY END UP HAVING TO UPGRADE THE NORTHERN PART OF ADVISORY IF
WE GET STRONGER CONVECTIVE BANDS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH AND
THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDOR.

[dhweather]

I cannot say for certain when or what type of precipitation falls at my house. I can say it is 32 degrees now with a dew point of 28, so there's room to drop more.

[orangeblood]

Latest HRRR has the bullseye of 6+ inches centered over Downtown Dallas...time to change some of these advisories to warnings boys!!

[orangeblood]

I cannot say for certain when or what type of precipitation falls at my house. I can say it is 32 degrees now with a dew point of 28, so there's room to drop more.

Yeah, not sure why there's rain in our forecasts

[Ralph's Weather]

Most models showing I-30 while the RGEM shows I -20.

[Ntxw]

Compare

[dhweather]

That's pretty darn close ntxw, except the leading precip area is much larger in reality. Hopefully the trend of more snow than not continues. And somehow the PWC gets in on the action. If I could, I would give them everything I get just on behalf of Portastorm.

[Brent]

GFS has come around to the heavier totals now:

[iorange55]

Seems like all models are in agreement now. Wonder why they haven't upgraded to a warning?

[TheProfessor]

I like that bullseye right in Southern Denton County.

[Brent]

Rick Mitchell just said someone may get 6 inches on air...