Texas Winter 2020-2021

[NDG]

00Z models below. None is showing significant freezing rain here in Harris County (Houston). It's north and south of us? GFS has 6-7" snow, Euro has 1-2". Model consensus is that Houston will reach 5-8F on Tuesday. All-time record is 5F. What I don't buy is the warm-up to above freezing the next day (Wednesday). With all that ice on the ground, I think the temperature won't climb above freezing. If that's the case, the stage is set for a significant ice storm across SE TX on Wednesday. Generator is ready to go. Lots of gas. Shutting off water this evening.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00ZFeb14.JPG

Good luck wxman57 with this historic Arctic event, I am surprised you haven't catch a plane and headed to FL knowing how much you hate the cold weather.

[wxman57]

00Z models below. None is showing significant freezing rain here in Harris County (Houston). It's north and south of us? GFS has 6-7" snow, Euro has 1-2". Model consensus is that Houston will reach 5-8F on Tuesday. All-time record is 5F. What I don't buy is the warm-up to above freezing the next day (Wednesday). With all that ice on the ground, I think the temperature won't climb above freezing. If that's the case, the stage is set for a significant ice storm across SE TX on Wednesday. Generator is ready to go. Lots of gas. Shutting off water this evening.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00ZFeb14.JPG

Good luck wxman57 with this historic Arctic event, I am surprised you haven't catch a plane and headed to FL knowing how much you hate the cold weather.

I'm still in Perth. My butler is handling all the chores back in Houston.

[Ntxw]

DFW is down to 16F . Single digits hours away.

[boca]

Your friends in Florida wish you guys in Texas good luck with this Historic weather event stay warm.

[Iceresistance]

DFW is down to 16F . Single digits hours away.

https://i.imgur.com/mOBnnnl.png

It's 5°F in Tecumseh and still dropping . . .

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like we’re just getting a lot of tiny flakes right now, nothing heavy here in Dallas. Looks like the NAM is coming around for this afternoon though

[bubba hotep]

Latest NAM 3k picking up on additional lift that stays with the Upper Trough as it passes overhead...didn’t have it in earlier runs. FW NWS probably needs to go back to its original 4-8” forecast

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1613304000/1613415600-42bRIOW1VHE.png

The 00z run was a dry outlier by the time all the 00z hi-res guidance came in and now it looks like it is catching up.

[rwfromkansas]

DFW mets keep posting on social media that this not the main event. I’m sure people are giving shade on “haha this is it?” type messages. People can never follow a forecast timeline properly.

Also, some heavier light snow. Guess close to a half-inch.

[Iceresistance]

Blizzard Condtions Achieved in Hobart, OK

Snow
1/4 mile Visibility
NNE wind at 25, Gusting to 35

[Brent]

Pleasantly surprised to see the driveway already snow covered lol

I hope we all get buried this afternoon guys

[Ntxw]

DFW mets keep posting on social media that this not the main event. I’m sure people are giving shade on “haha this is it?” type messages. People can never follow a forecast timeline properly.

Also, some heavier light snow. Guess close to a half-inch.

They're going to be surprised when the stuff out in Abilene hits. It's going to be much colder and snow fall rates much higher. We'll rack up totals quickly.

That DGZ .

[funster]

Ercot app is basically here's a couple charts. You figure it out.

ERCOT app forecasting exceeding demand mid-afternoon. But, I question its accuracy as it constantly changes and magically gets enough capacity as it gets closer the past few days.

[cstrunk]

Some light to moderate sleet has moved through Longview in the last hour or so. Not a lot but a decent coating and I'm sure the roads are now awful. More pockets of sleet heading this way on radar - but they don't look like much and seem to be drying up a bit.

[brewskymc]

I love the ice and snow, but not the extreme cold. I pray that all of you stay safe and warm. And, that the grid is able to keep up with the demand. As far as precip goes... This has already outperformed the last five winters combined IMBY (which isn’t saying a much). Interested to see if the wild totals that some of the models have shown actually come to pass, but from here on, it is all gravy.

[bubba hotep]

Radar shows heavy snow in Las Colinas but we have heavy sleet instead. Must be a little warm layer up there still.

The 12z FWD sounding looks to have the entire column below freezing but it is very close. My guess is that some of these impulses coming up with the WAA have enough warm air aloft to change the profile to sleet? Those bright returns to the east are almost certainly sleet.

[TropicalTundra]

Looks like the Metroplex guys racked up some snow while I was asleep. Good for them. A little snow fell but the only thing it covered was my windshield and there’s still ice on the ground from 3 days ago. Hoping everyone’s safe.

[Ntxw]

Radar shows heavy snow in Las Colinas but we have heavy sleet instead. Must be a little warm layer up there still.

The 12z FWD sounding looks to have the entire column below freezing but it is very close. My guess is that some of these impulses coming up with the WAA have enough warm air aloft to change the profile to sleet? Those bright returns to the east are almost certainly sleet.

https://i.ibb.co/02rrGtm/CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-FWS-N0-Q-20210214-1519-24-100.gif

I made a post last night about sleet/snow and how close they can resemble/sound at such cold temps. There have been some cases where folks thinks it is sleet but it is needle form of snow. Sleet you can't miss, it's round and often smooth/clear and sticks densely. The needles form of snow can be mistaken as sleet but it's fluffier and you can see the hair like "sleet" look instead of round.

Sleet up close looks like small hail.

[TropicalTundra]

Winds just picked up speed fast. Around 15-25 miles with gusts of 35-45. Very chilly.

[EnnisTx]

Tarrant County has continued to build light snow fall for hours now. Nothing of real consequence , but it keeps building. Waiting on the big flakes, cooler air and wind from out West to move in.

[rwfromkansas]

Ercot app is basically here's a couple charts. You figure it out.

ERCOT app forecasting exceeding demand mid-afternoon. But, I question its accuracy as it constantly changes and magically gets enough capacity as it gets closer the past few days.

It’s already updated to say there will be enough capacity now. So sketchy.