Texas Winter 2014-2015

[orangeblood]

It appears the current radar trends match more with the RGEM than anything else...what does that tell us ?

[iorange55]

Pete Delkus is the master of skipping around the fact that he was probably wrong before. He opened by saying he's not changing the track or the intensity of the system, but he's moving the snowfall totals up from 1-3 inches to 2-4 inches.

Uh....okay? What changed then?

[SouthernMet]

HRRR Snowfall accumulations : snow cuts off at the Travis County line. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloo ... omain=full

[SouthernMet]

SREF still looks very interesting for friday, temp & precip wise.

[orangeblood]

The NAM or HRRR are not picking up on the precip in San Angelo or Brady right now, much further south than what is shown on models....RGEM might be the way to go, more along I-20

[Ntxw]

I don't understand why FW isn't going for the winter storm warnings, every model goes higher (now even the conservative behind GFS) basically every model. 1-2 could become 2-4 then 4-8...they are going to be caught dragging their feet on this one.

[dhweather]

From the MIC at FWD: No fancy analysis now. Let me just say the prediction of tmrw's snow impacts in DFW is as hard as Monday's sleet event was easy.

[orangeblood]

Feels like Deja Vu all over again doesn't it Ntxw?...we had these exact same conversations with Snowmageddon 5 years ago

[Brent]

Larry Mowry on CBS 11 just said "near whiteout conditions"

[Yukon Cornelius]

I don't understand why FW isn't going for the winter storm warnings, every model goes higher (now even the conservative behind GFS) basically every model. 1-2 could become 2-4 then 4-8...they are going to be caught dragging their feet on this one.

Wait, so by that they are showing snow for around Wichita Falls with this storm now?

[Texas Snowman]

Somebody is going to get buried. 8-10 inches IMO.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Feels like Deja Vu all over again doesn't it Ntxw?...we had these exact same conversations with Snowmageddon 5 years ago

Yes, yes it does. It feels exactly like that night, I remember it well. You don't need models look at the radar and look at the tropical connection. The temps are nearly identical.

[dhweather]

Free HRRR from Weatherbell

weatherbell: As Winter Storm evolves in Southeast, freely-available HRRR 3-km simulated radar GIFs
http://t.co/DuMdVzaBW9
Update hourly out to 15-hours




http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2015022502 ... ref_tx.gif

[TarrantWx]

:uarrow: Feels like Deja Vu all over again doesn't it Ntxw?...we had these exact same conversations with Snowmageddon 5 years ago

This really does feel like Snowmageddon. Does anyone have a saved radar loop from that event?

[iorange55]

Yes, yes it does. It feels exactly like that night, I remember it well. You don't need models look at the radar and look at the tropical connection. The temps are nearly identical.

The only difference being most of the TV Mets (sans Mr. Delkus) are hinting at the fact that some places could get buried. I don't believe they even mentioned that possibility five years ago.

[SouthernMet]

:uarrow: Feels like Deja Vu all over again doesn't it Ntxw?...we had these exact same conversations with Snowmageddon 5 years ago

Yes, yes it does. It feels exactly like that night, I remember it well. You don't need models look at the radar and look at the tropical connection. The temps are nearly identical.

It really, really does. Enjoy it north texas members!!

[Ntxw]

Yes, yes it does. It feels exactly like that night, I remember it well. You don't need models look at the radar and look at the tropical connection. The temps are nearly identical.

The only difference being most of the TV Mets (sans Mr. Delkus) are hinting at the fact that some places could get buried. I don't believe they even mentioned that possibility five years ago.

it's crazy just deja vu, not saying we're going to get a foot but it will definitely be more than expected previously. If we get 5 inches or more it will be top 10 snowfall totals from seemingly nothing a few days ago.

[Texas Snowman]

It makes me sad though that we don't have PORTASTORM along for the ride tonight.

[dhweather]

It makes me sad though that we don't have PORTASTORM along for the ride tonight.

I hope he's sound asleep and wakes up to a surprise 1-2" of the good stuff.

[TarrantWx]

If these snow totals come close to verifying we're going to be dealing with broken tree limbs and power outages. That was a huge problem during snowmageddon. Especially considering this will be a heavy, wet snow.