Pacific Northwest Weather

[AnthonyC]

TT-SEA,

You can continue to state the average statistics, but variability is a big factor. Sure Sea-Tac has had average rainfall this past month, but many parts of Western Washington exceed the average.

Looks like another cloudy day...that pesky area of low pressure off the south OR coast continues to sit and spin. A cloud band rotating around the low is stuck over the northern portion of Western Washington...Seattle northward. Areas from Olympia south are in the sun. Hopefully the north winds will evaporate the clouds...but that cloud band looks persistent.

Anthony

[AnthonyC]

Snow_Wizzard,

Like I've stated many times, I would be cautious about the analogs. Many factors go against a correlation between a past year and an upcoming year...global warming, climate change, etc. Don't get your hopes up too much.

With no El Nino or La Nina, I would imagine a normal, upcoming winter...with alot of variability.

Anthony

[snow_wizzard]

Anthony...Only time will tell...

I do think you are right about the upcoming being extremely variable. Some of our best winters are like that though.

There is a nice cluster of showers over NW Oregon and SW Washington that the ETA did not indicate. That area could make its way up here by this evening. We shall see. There is no doubt we have been plain unlucky for seeing showers from this low. The return flow is just to the north and the good southerly stuff just to the south. I am still prepared to be surprised though.

Incidentally. Sea - Tac is almost at normal for the entire month of June, and there is still quite a bit of the month left. A heavy shower, which is not impossible, sometime this weekend could make a huge difference. The total at my place so far is 2.66, which is normal for the entire month.

[andycottle]

After this current trough of spinning and presistent area low pressure moves inland sometime early-mid week into central Oregon, it appears that yet another area of low pressure will develope off the B.C coast line and head inland over us by next weekend. Thus, will proably have at least the chance....a small chance....of showers through next week, with a somewhat more greater threat come the weekend. Though the work week should remain mostly dry and temps near 70 to lower 70`s. Monday/Tuesday time frame look to be the warmest days as MOS has high of 79 Mon. And high 77 Tue.

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

I am beginning to think we may be in for something. That stuff over SW WA continues to move north and is intensifying. I am also seeing towering clouds the the S and SE. On the visible satellite, you can see the clouds boiling underneath a veil of cirrus that are from the anvil tops blowing off. In central WA there is a feature that nearly resembles a supercell thunderstorm. This is not a typical June pattern.

BTW...I am not saying heavy showers or thundershowers are certain today, I am only saying it is looking more possible.

[snow_wizzard]

Wow Wee! That line of thunderstorms is very energetic now, and still progressing northwestward. Here is a lightning strike map...as you can see it is quite impressive!

https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/js ... plorer.jsp

[andycottle]

Hey snow wizzard....speaking of lightning, here`s what should be in the mail by thur/fri of next week. A SkyScan Lightning detector!

http://www.ambientweather.com/sklidede.html


Only, I think it`s coming from oregon scientific online store. Ordered it last night.

Hope you wont be jelous... -- Andy

[andycottle]

Hey guys...check out the Seattle QueenAnn cam. Definally some cumulonimbus clouds seen in the distance! Wow..! http://www.kirotv.com/entertainment/537778/detail.html

[TT-SEA]

PLEASE stop saying this not normal.

You NEVER think anything is normal.

You probably had a stroke last June with the wild thunderstorms that one night. That would have been PROOF of a terribly cold winter coming.

Normal is just the average of the extremes.

[TT-SEA]

Another above normal day (3 in a row)... with the next 3 days above normal as well. In fact Monday and Tuesday could be WAY above normal. That would be 6 days in a row. Under a deep trough.

Come on.

Today was BEAUTIFUL. It felt like a perfectly normal summer day in Seattle.

74 degrees in Bellevue and it felt warmer as we ate lunch outside.

[snow_wizzard]

Stop saying I am wrong TT!

I have carefully laid out why this year is abnormal...so many ways. What is your problem?

I just love how you never mention that there were only two above normal the entire first half of June. Talk about biased!

Are you not the one who said June would end with 1.25 inches...What a joke!

[andycottle]

Well just because it was 'nice' where you were, doesn`t mean it was nice day every where eles, Tim. -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

So far Sea - Tac has had three consecutive days with temps BARELYabove normal. I highly doubt the NWS saying that Tuesday will be 80 degrees...to much onshore flow and all of the heat is WAY to the east of us.

Just for TT, I will write up a dossier of just how bloody unusual this year has been both locally and globally.

[snow_wizzard]

Andy...Those Sky Scan detectors are good. I sell Strike Alert's which are quite a bit cheaper and not as good. With all of the thunderstorms this year, a lightning detector is a good idea. Speaking of which, that line is still moving NW. The leading edge is only about 30 miles from me. I sure hope it makes it!

[TT-SEA]

Every year has all types of strange weather.

Every year!!


My guess was 1.25 inches... but I also said many times that we will likely end up around normal at 1.49 inches.

Right now we are at 1.37 inches and we MAY not get much more.

[R-Dub]

Had showers until about 10:00AM, then it was Mostly Cloudy until about 3:30PM today. Did manage to hit a high of 68 degrees.

Sunday and Monday do look quite warm indeed though

Oh I was wrong about my monthly rainfall total, it is auctually 2.75" so far.

[TT-SEA]

No day in June had been very far below normal either.

After Tuesday... we will be at 8 days above normal and 12 days below normal. And 1 day right at normal.

Not very dramatic.

[andycottle]

Hey thanks snow wizzard. Also, I `ll be getting two NOAA weather radios in the mail at about the same time(thur/fri next week) that has S.A.M.E technology. The frist one has digital read out of what kind of weather watches/warnings are being put out...along with any specail statements, and can be set on your desk. And second one...your able to clip on to your belt. Which means I can take it every where I go! lol. This one also the S.A.M.E technology on it. And it also has the alert tone on it also. I am looking foward to having all three items when they come! -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

A trough in the PNW and a big ridge in the middle of the country is NOT abnormal in June. I lived in Minnesota for 22 years. I know what a summer pattern looks like.

What planet am I on here??? Summer does not really begin here until July. EVERYONE complains that June in Seattle is ALWAYS too cool and cloudy.

I could go back and show you similar 500mb patterns every other year in June.

I know this because I looked at the 500mb maps for every May and June going back to 1948. Obsessive... I know.

So tell me all the strange things that have happened this year. I could list strange things that happen every year.

A huge ridge over Seattle and trough in Texas would be STRANGE for June. Not the other way around!!!

Please... this drama exhausts me.

[snow_wizzard]

Now if anyone says the pattern shown in this link is normal for June, I would call them a liar!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/00z ... 0_180m.htm

I love how the vorticity hooks the moisture around the Olympics, so Seattle gets nailed with some nice rainfall totals. 1.25" has already been exceeded and this coming pattern will really crank the monthly totals up!

I will concede that today was a fairly normal looking day for June, in the Seattle area. The overall pattern, however, is rather odd. Usually most of the precip this time of year is well north of us, not south. I feel the way this year is fitting together is what is really strange. No matter how you slice it, we are seeing combinations of events that we have not witnessed since the early 70s and before.

TT...I seem to recall that you were agreeing that the weather patterns were really screwed up this year. What happened? The fact that they just had frozen precip for the first time EVER is Somalia a couple of weeks ago tells me things are still a little strange! That is just one example I have... You just don't see the fine points like I do...sorry.