Texas Winter 2013-2014

[ravyrn]

Hey, if any amateurs or promets would take the time to share your thoughts about the topic of shallow cold air getting dammed up behind the Ouachita Mountains it'd be very much appreciated. This past cold front was the 2nd time we saw cold air spill into CTX and CLA but come in slower along and west of the Sabine. I included a screenshot of temps at the time, but earlier in the evening the warmspot stretched all the way up to the Arklatex.

[Ntxw]

Hey, if any amateurs or promets would take the time to share your thoughts about the topic of shallow cold air getting dammed up behind the Ouachita Mountains it'd be very much appreciated. This past cold front was the 2nd time we saw cold air spill into CTX and CLA but come in slower along and west of the Sabine. I included a screenshot of temps at the time, but earlier in the evening the warmspot stretched all the way up to the Arklatex.

I'm sure it plays some role. It's pretty obvious with elevation, it's going downhill from the high plains to CTX/NTX and even south Texas. That's why you always see that dagger down to the Rio Grande. SE Texas fronts tend to slow a little especially when HP is to the north or northeast. LA was just in the deeper cold this go round so it was easier for them to cool.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Curious note in the afternoon AFD from FTW...

issued 351 PM CST Wednesday Jan 29 2014/ the overall weather pattern is in the beginning stages of transitioning to a warmer one but significant changes are on the way for next week.

Where are they coming up with that? The always wrong this year CPC? Seems to be opposite of general consensus here.

Punctuation issues, they probably mean warmer pattern from now into the weekend from chill but changes are ahead next week. Which is correct, that's what happens when you take it into context without posting the whole thing.

Very good point. It makes complete sense. A comma can change the entire mood. I feel my inner punctuation nazi being awakened. Hell hath no fury...LOL

[wxman22]

GFS shows a major winter storm across the state next weekend

[orangeblood]

It seems like when the temperatures are there the precip is lower but when the temperatures are slightly above, the precipitation is way higher.

That's the first system, it was mostly rain for all runs before tonight. The second system on the GFS (the big one we've been talking about) is a whiff. GFS has it ejecting in Texas but sends the snow all the way up to Nebraska and Iowa which doesn't make any sense when the surface low cyclogenesis should be happening underneath the ejecting 5h low. Third system on the models almost makes as a winter storm it but then you go beyond truncation.

Have noticed the 5-7 day period as the 'loco' phase for the GFS...from inside 120 hours it's been pretty impressive! Tomorrow's 12Z should paint a better picture

Edit: Red Flag just appeared, tonight's Canadian going towards the GFS with a much flatter, less impressive system for both mid and late next week. Not surprised!!!

[TheProfessor]

GFS shows a major winter storm across the state next weekend

It sounds like if every thing plays out the way I want it, than North Texas could be under a lot of snow. If we could mix the Euro and GFS model runs that gave North Texas a foot of snow during the first storm then add in the Euro run the had a lot of the state receiving 5-8 inches during the second event + what is being shown by the models for next weekend would = up to my favorite winter ever!

This is possible, but likely. I'll be happy if we hit on 2 out of the 3 storms. But thats only if they produced a grand total of around 6-8 inches.

[weatherdude1108]

I think it is so interesting how these low spots in Hill Country get so COLD (4 degrees F/6 degrees F ??) according to some LCRA remote gauges.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

"Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather
Wednedsay Morning Weather Update
Wednesday, January 29, 2014 12:11 PM

A Very Cold Morning: Low temperatures earlier this morning were among the coldest recorded so far this winter. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, minimum temperatures were generally in the upper teens to low 20s across the Hill Country, the upper teens to mid 20s across Central Texas and the upper 20s to low 30s across the coastal plains. Austin-Camp Mabry recorded a low temperature of 27 degrees. Austin Bergstrom recorded a low temperature of 21 degrees.

Areas of the western and northern Hill Country had a clear sky overnight and several gauges recorded minimum temperatures in the single digits. The lowest temperature observed was 4 degrees at gauge located 17 miles northwest of Junction in Kimble County. A low temperature of 6 degrees was recorded at 3 gauges northeast of Lake Brownwood and at another gauge located east of El Dorado in Schleicher County.

Bob"

[ravyrn]

Here's the latest output from the American Model. It is predicting that the core of the current Alaskan storm system (see previous posts) will pass directly over DFW next Tuesday. But here's the downside: According to this model, there will be very little moisture for it to work with. It thinks that the dewpoints will remain far too low to be of any significance by the time this system arrives. As a result, this computer model predicts that there will barely be any rain at all here in north Texas in spite of the very strong system passing overhead!

Now, the stat method currently rejects this pitiful prediction and continues to hold to a significant (greater than 0.25") rain event for next Tuesday. But I will run the SM again with the latest data sets and post an evaluation before I head off to class in the morning.

Stay tuned for the continuing story of this approaching storm!

^Steve McCauley on Facebook

I responded with


He commented, "Too funny".

He has yet to respond further, but I don't reckon he needs to, he stated earlier, "The Euro, JMA, and UKMET (and of course the SM) have gone for negative."

[Ntxw]

Euro joins the club for a little snow in north/NW Texas Monday. It has around an inch for the area and 1-2 inches just slightly to the west.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm not liking the trends in the models for a weaker storm early next week. We could really use a nice widespread heavy rain event. It's looking less likely every model run.

[Ntxw]

I'm not liking the trends in the models for a weaker storm early next week. We could really use a nice widespread heavy rain event. It's looking less likely every model run.

What don't you like? I know the qpf has been on and off but we're getting real systems coming negative tilt and not the sheared messes. Euro is just a beautiful run for Texas. Little storm on Monday comes out with a trowal and gives NTX/NW Texas snow, middle system is bigger but looks too dry for being so powerful at 5h, third system dumps more snow in the heart of the state!

[South Texas Storms]

It just seems the QPF keeps trending down each run across central Texas. The system towards the end of next week is still looking good though.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: It just seems the QPF keeps trending down each run across central Texas. The system towards the end of next week is still looking good though.

Don't sweat it . Systems like that are prolific "lifters" they are always very moist. I'm almost sure we will see it light up once closer in resolution.

[wxman57]

Euro joins the club for a little snow in north/NW Texas Monday. It has around an inch for the area and 1-2 inches just slightly to the west.

It has 7-10" for north TX next Wed-Fri (and 1-3" for Austin). The 00Z and 6Z GFS had none for north TX. All up in OK.

[KatDaddy]

The warm weather has returned to Galveston County. 26F at 3:17AM and now 34F at 5:50AM.

[WeatherGuesser]

Are y'all having trouble breathing in this dry air? Mouth. lips and nose feeling dry? Skin itching more?

[gboudx]

He has yet to respond further, but I don't reckon he needs to, he stated earlier, "The Euro, JMA, and UKMET (and of course the SM) have gone for negative."

He updated very early this morning. He said his SM is holding at 90% for at least 0.25" of rain but that we won't really know until 24 hours before the onset of precip. He also mentions the possibility of freezing drizzle/rain NW of the Metroplex Sunday morning, possibly affecting portions of the area as well.

WeatherGuesser, where are you located? Your profile doesn't show it. But yeah we're feeling the dry here at my house. It feels like when we went to Telluride, CO last summer. Nose issues and scratchy skin. But dew points are on the increase with the south wind.

[TheProfessor]

He has yet to respond further, but I don't reckon he needs to, he stated earlier, "The Euro, JMA, and UKMET (and of course the SM) have gone for negative."

He updated very early this morning. He said his SM is holding at 90% for at least 0.25" of rain but that we won't really know until 24 hours before the onset of precip. He also mentions the possibility of freezing drizzle/rain NW of the Metroplex Sunday morning, possibly affecting portions of the area as well.

WeatherGuesser, where are you located? Your profile doesn't show it. But yeah we're feeling the dry here at my house. It feels like when we went to Telluride, CO last summer. Nose issues and scratchy skin. But dew points are on the increase with the south wind.

I was about mention that the chance for freezing rain on Sunday, is it possible that the freezing line could move another 15-20 miles southeast? And if it does could it increase our chance for winter weather in the early part of our week?

[RedRiverRefuge]

Can someone educate me in the difference between the ECMWF Control run & ECMWF deterministic run. Is there one more reliable than the other ? Thanks in advance.

[gboudx]

(to TheProfessor) As usual it'll probably depend on the density of the airmass. As we know, dense airmasses aren't usually handled well by the models and move in faster than forecasted. We'll need to see the density of the airmass once it gets moving. There's not a lot of snow cover north of us to keep the airmass from moderating right now though.