Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
130 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday Night/
...Significant Winter Storm In Progress...
Key Messages:
-Dangerously cold temperatures will be in place through the next
several days. Temperatures will dip to below 0F for some, leading
to a significant amount of stress on the region`s
infrastructure.
-Light freezing drizzle continues to impact counties across
Central Texas and East Texas. Given previous days` ice
accumulations, any additional amounts will further exacerbate
the icy roads, as well as increasing the potential for down trees
with this afternoon`s increasing winds.
-Heavy snowfall is now moving in from the west and will continue
to spread eastward through the rest of the afternoon. Given the
heavy snow and windy conditions, near blizzard conditions are
expected as the heavy snow is falling. Travel is highly
discouraged given the already snow and ice covered roads.
Treacherous travel conditions will continue through the next
several days given roads are likely to remain snow and ice
covered.
The deep upper trough responsible for the dangerous weather
conditions continues to move in from the west, clearly seen on
water vapor imagery this early afternoon. With more concentrated
forcing for ascent moving in, bands of heavy snow extend from a
Bowie to Eastland line as of noon. This heavy snow will continue
to move to the east through the rest of the afternoon as forcing
spreads in. In addition to the eastward moving snow-band, light
snow is occurring throughout much of North and Central Texas.
Light drizzle has been ongoing across Central Texas much of the
morning, with a continuation expected through the afternoon. Even
though additional ice accumulations are expected to remain
minimal, stress from previous days` ice, coupled with strong winds
this afternoon will increase the potential mainly downed trees.
With heavy snow moving in from the west, white-out to near white-
out conditions are being reported with the heavier snow bands.
These conditions are making travel nearly impossible west of I-35
at the moment. The same conditions are expected to move closer to
the I-35 corridor in the coming hours. In addition, heavy snow
will lead to quick accumulations of around 1" per hour with the
heavier bands. Accumulations will likely be the highest north and
west of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex as 6-10" of snow will be
possible. The slight increase in accumulations are in due part to
the slightly higher snow to liquid ratios the latest high
resolution models have been advertising. Secondly, snow amounts
across the Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas have been raised to
6-8" given a sub-freezing thermal profile is likely now in place,
reducing the potential for sleet. .
Again, the white-out to near white-out conditions will make any
travel very difficult, if not impossible. Snow drifts are likely
to develop through the afternoon/evening, some of which will need
to be measured with a yard stick. The time to prepare for this
winter storm was yesterday. Today, the best coarse of action is to
stay home, enjoy a warm cup of tea next to a warm fire.