Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Steve
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6221 Postby Steve » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:21 pm

fendie wrote:0Z 12-km NAM Steve is referencing from 12 pm Monday - 6 am Tuesday. Plenty more mesoscale model watching over the next couple days.

https://i.imgur.com/x7rlgGd.gif


That’s some wintry precip (never understood why they took the ‘e’ out of winter. Icon out to 72 hours. Looks like moisture coming back up instead of staying suppressed. We’ll see in a few minutes. Gonna check Pivotal.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6222 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:21 pm

0z RGEM

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6223 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:23 pm

0z RGEM

Image

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6224 Postby Steve » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:23 pm

Icon smacks houston and all of south la so far. That’s an upgrade

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6225 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:33 pm

I’m putting all my chips into the RDPS
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6226 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:35 pm

Gotwood wrote:I’m putting all my chips into the RDPS


Rgem usually is reflective to what the coming Canadian run will be basically higher resolution brother. So we can make a good guess what the 0z CMC will do.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6227 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:35 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Gotwood wrote:I’m putting all my chips into the RDPS


Rgem usually is reflective to what the coming Canadian run will be basically higher resolution brother.

I know but I need hope lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6228 Postby Steve » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:37 pm

Gotwood wrote:I’m putting all my chips into the RDPS



Canadian rapid deterministic right?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6229 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:40 pm

Steve wrote:
Gotwood wrote:I’m putting all my chips into the RDPS



Canadian rapid deterministic right?

Yeah it has stuck to its guns for a pretty much state wide system guess we will know soon enough. Would really suck to have all this cold air and nothing fall from the sky.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6230 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:48 pm

Canadian can be good for Arctic blasts so I give it credence especially when it locks in like it has on this one.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6231 Postby Quixotic » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:52 pm

Judging by the wind change between Bowie and WF, the front is early.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6232 Postby Steve » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:56 pm

Gfs rolling in at 75 hours on pivotal. Ice down to San Antonio and snow much of east Texas.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?fh=75

GFS has had that 540 height line north of a lot of other models. Out to 84 hours and that gulf surge is coming.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6233 Postby IcyTundra » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:05 pm

Stubborn warm nose on the 0Z GFS
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6234 Postby snownado » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:08 pm

GFS is pretty far north with the frontogenesis band, but still stops just shy of affecting DFW.

Gotta watch this BTW, because frontogenesis bands have a tendency to massively overachieve even with relatively limited moisture.
Last edited by snownado on Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6235 Postby Steve » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:09 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6236 Postby Steve » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:10 pm

CMC out to 72 hours. About to get good and interesting.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6237 Postby wxman22 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:13 pm

Is the CMC locking in, like it did with the last storm? With last Thursdays winterstorm the CMC & RGEM did a good job when predicting that the precip shield was going to be larger than what most of the global models were showing at the time. With the upcoming storm the CMC seems to be consistently hinting at the same possibility fwiw.

Image

Image
Last edited by wxman22 on Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6238 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:17 pm

terrible trends tonight in the models
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6239 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:20 pm

Stratton23 wrote:terrible trends tonight in the models


No it isn’t. Yall hang on output maps too much.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6240 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:22 pm

ThunderSleetDreams for snow for se texas it is, stronger warm nose is the trend, thats not good
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