Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[txtiff]

NWS LCH just updated and now has 50% snow/sleet for my area overnight tonight, including Beaumont.

hmmm, don't see it happening... but sure hope it does!

crossing my fingers for you...who knows it might just work

It works!!! It REALLY REALLY does

[katheria]

FW NWS being really slow tonight on update...ergggg...or im impatient lol....

[Turtle]

Not liking that, I'm in the middle of the trace hole in East Texas. Do you think that area will get snow like the surrounding areas? Or is there a 'reason' for the small amount of snow?

[southerngale]

NWS LCH just updated and now has 50% snow/sleet for my area overnight tonight, including Beaumont.

hmmm, don't see it happening... but sure hope it does!

crossing my fingers for you...who knows it might just work

It works!!! It REALLY REALLY does

Thanks... hope y'all get a lot & I'll be happy with a little. The chances are MUCH lower down here so anything will be a nice surprise.

[iorange55]

DFW NWS beefing up their wording with isolated amounts maybe up to 4 inches in the metroplex, they're still sticking with the WWA. But they're watching the early morning models to see if it needs to be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning.

[katheria]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 110448
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1048 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.UPDATE...

REGARDING THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT NORTH TX TOMORROW
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

WITH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS IN STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO
LOOK TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING AND
HOLDING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. IN GENERAL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME
IN A BIT COOLER THAN 18Z WITH THE NAM OFFERING THE COOLEST AND
WETTEST SOLUTION. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL SEEMS TO KEEP THE BEST
MOISTURE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHILE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMANCHE TO CANTON LINE THROUGH THE
EVENT. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY HAD A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY OUT FOR MUCH OF NORTH TX...AND THE AREA COVERED BY THIS
ADVISORY SEEMED APPROPRIATE BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE...SO NO CHANGES
MADE TO TEMPORAL OR AERIAL COVERAGE TO ADVISORY. BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR
AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO PARIS LINE NOW LOOK MORE LIKELY TO
RECEIVE 3-4 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL. THE METROPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE WITH
ISOLATED AREAS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HOLD AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT
THE EVENT...SO IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHAT THE EXACT
IMPACTS OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE.

OUR THINKING REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
LARGELY UNCHANGED...PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS
WILL LARGELY SERVE TO SATURATE THE DRY LOW LVL ATMOSPHERE.
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TX DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO CANTON LINE DURING THE EVENT.
SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR COMMUTE BUT ROAD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE
SLUSHY WITH SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR COMMUTE. ROAD SURFACES
THAT ARE TREATED WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN WET WHILE ELEVATED
ROADWAYS WITHOUT ANY TREATMENT MAY BECOME MORE SNOW COVERED/VERY
SLICK BY THE AFTERNOON HRS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING LATE THURSDAY EVENING...AND THIS IS WHEN WE EXPECT
WET OR SLUSH COVERED ROADS TO START BECOMING ICY. THE FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY POTENTIAL ICY
ROAD CONDITIONS EVEN THOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ALREADY
ENDED.

AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE
FOR EXPECTED IMPACTS. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN COOLER
LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS MAY BE HIGHER AND PORTIONS OF NORTH TX MAY
HAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AS SNOWFALL AMTS
WOULD INCREASE. CURRENT FORECAST IS USING A 6 OR 8 TO 1 RATIO
WITH HIGHER RATIO FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. TAKING A QUICK
LOOK AT THE 4 KM WRF ALSO INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX...ENHANCED
MESOSCALE FORCING WILL HAVE TO BE INVESTIGATED IN GREATER DETAIL BY
THE OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS TO DETERMINE IF THIS WILL ADD TO
SNOWFALL TOTALS.

CAVANAUGH


Thats it for me tonight, see you guys in the morning

[AggieSpirit]

TAKING A QUICK
LOOK AT THE 4 KM WRF ALSO INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX...ENHANCED
MESOSCALE FORCING WILL HAVE TO BE INVESTIGATED IN GREATER DETAIL BY
THE OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS TO DETERMINE IF THIS WILL ADD TO
SNOWFALL TOTALS.

CAVANAUGH


Thats it for me tonight, see you guys in the morning

For non-meteorologists like myself -- I had to understand FRONTOGENETIC FORCING in order to understand the NWS notice above.

I found this.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrh/talite0437.pdf

[rainman31]

Most of the moisture appears to be south of this area for now.

Edit: moisture looks to be building nicely to the sw of the dallas area.

[JGrin87]

This thread really dies overnight... this is my first post ever. I was wondering if anybody knew/thinks that Austin is going to get in on any of the action. we are sitting at about 36/37 degrees and it was sleeting earlier today and there is a light mix coming down right now.

[iorange55]

This thread really dies overnight... this is my first post ever. I was wondering if anybody knew/thinks that Austin is going to get in on any of the action. we are sitting at about 36/37 degrees and it was sleeting earlier today and there is a light mix coming down right now.

From what I've read you could see a few flakes and sleet pellets. But i don't think any accumulation.

[somethingfunny]

I'm confused. NWS Ft. Worth has an area of 4"+ from Abilene to Oklahoma, but the NWS offices in San Angelo and OKC aren't nearly as bullish. Meanwhile, Ft. Worth has 1"-2" in East Texas while NWS Shreveport is calling for 4"-6" in the same region.

For instance....Grand Saline, TX:

Overnight: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Thursday: Snow. High near 35. East southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Thursday Night: Snow. Low around 30. East northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Friday: Cloudy, with a high near 42. North northwest wind around 5 mph.

Drive ten minutes east to Mineola, TX:

Overnight: A chance of snow and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday: Rain, snow, and sleet before noon, then snow and sleet likely. High near 38. East wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of around an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 29. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of snow before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

[iorange55]

They are just confused is what I think.

[Ntxw]

They are all using different models as reference lol. I think for better accuracy you should blend them. Which ultimately (GFS, NAM, Canadian, Euro, Ukmet, etc) points to I-20 with the most moisture around the most cold air for snow.

[southerngale]

Yeah, somethingfunny... seeing similar instances all over the place. Another example:

Moss Hill (Houston NWS)
Overnight: 60% Rain/Sleet Likely
Thursday: 100% Rain
Thursday night: 90% Rain
Friday: 30% Rain

Just 8 miles east of there, in Batson (Lake Charles NWS)
Overnight: 50% Snow/Sleet
Thursday: 100% Rain/Snow
Thursday night: 100% Snow/Sleet
Friday: 40% Chance Rain/Snow



JGrin87... welcome to Storm2k!

[Ntxw]

06z Nam wallops all of north Texas.

[rainman31]

Well I guess I'm up for the duration of todays event, can't seem to sleep much in anticipation of events like this. Had the same problem when i lived near Galveston when a storm would be in the gulf. You can count on my observations from Denton TX 30 miles north of Dallas throughout the day.

[Ntxw]

06z skews indicate colder aloft as well, might result in a bit higher snow ratios. I'm pretty convinced area wide we should have a very good snowstorm similar to that of valentines day 2004 at the least. My last call for this storm is a widespread 4-5 inches for the metro and 3-6 for all of north Texas, localized 6+ wherever the heaviest bands set up.



I'm off for bed. Stay safe everyone.

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[rainman31]

On the radar it appears snow is approaching sw fort worth.

[HockeyTx82]

Everything still on track? I noticed my temp around here has not dropped much...... Just woke up and wanted to see what the latest was. Oh well back to bed in a few.

[DentonGal]

Glad to see I'm not the only person in Denton awake this morning!