Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Nederlander]

The GFS/NAM solution of an icy, sloppy mess that far inland just doesn’t make sense. The NWS seems think the I-10 corridor is a reasonable line of demarcation, but also urges patience on getting in range of the hi-res models.

Excerpt from NWS discussion:

“ Technically, there is `ok` consensus among the data. But what is
the data we are talking about? The vast majority of the available
guidance comes from the global models since the storm is not
within range of most of the higher resolution guidance. You may
remember the cold heavy rains and gusty winds we experienced on
Thursday January 9th. Global models did an ok job resolving the
system. But it wasn`t until we had most of the HREF guidance
(within 48 hours of the storm) before model data fully captured
the strength and track of the low. The system is officially within
range of the 12KM NAM. Both the NAM and the GFS are hinting that
the system may feature more of a sleet/freezing rain mix across
the southern half of the CWA than much of the rest of the snowier
guidance. And given the favorable environment for a potentially
stronger low over the Gulf along with uncertainties in the track
of the low, I`d say there remains more p-type uncertainty than the
consistently snowy ECMWF suggests. And even in a snowier
temperature profile, uncertainties regarding the location of
banding along with the complex microphysics involved in compaction
and melting make forecasting accumulations difficult.

For now, we`re opting to go with mostly snow with a dash of sleet
for areas north of I-10. Forecast snow accumulations north of I-10 are
generally 2-4 inches with locally higher totals. Considering the
possibility of heavy banding of precip, we could not rule out
locally much heavier totals. Our precip forecast has more sleet
and freezing rain in the mix south of I-10. Therefore, the
expected snowfall accumulations generally taper as you head to the
coast. The best chance of freezing rain is south of I-10 with a
glaze of ice possible. But please do not attached yourself to
these snow/ice totals. With all the moving parts and the lack of
high resolution data, these values are almost certain to change.”

[jasons2k]

Wow at the Winter Storm Watch from Lake Charles already.....5-7 inches possible

This could be a historic storm down there

I am in the watch as well. I am about 45 miles west of Lake Charles. If I only new how to share pics I would post some.

The way it works is you link them from a host site. If it’s NWS which we can hotlink to, you right click on the image and copy image link. This is the code:

[ img ] paste of your image link [ / img ]
^^ just remove the spaces between the brackets so it’s open bracket img close bracket, image link and open bracket forward slash img close bracket with no spaces. That’s how it works on desktop. Mobile is more complicated.

I use Tapatalk on Mobile to upload my images and it's so much easier IMO, because I don't have to link to a 3rd party host. I just upload the image from my iPhone library using the image upload widget in Tapatalk...easy peasy.

By the way - so great to see you Steve here in the wintertime. Got your ice pick ready? This will probably be a record storm over in LA.

PS - I see Ivanhater around too. Is this January or September??

[Steve]

I am in the watch as well. I am about 45 miles west of Lake Charles. If I only new how to share pics I would post some.

The way it works is you link them from a host site. If it’s NWS which we can hotlink to, you right click on the image and copy image link. This is the code:

[ img ] paste of your image link [ / img ]
^^ just remove the spaces between the brackets so it’s open bracket img close bracket, image link and open bracket forward slash img close bracket with no spaces. That’s how it works on desktop. Mobile is more complicated.

I use Tapatalk on Mobile to upload my images and it's so much easier IMO, because I don't have to link to a 3rd party host. I just upload the image from my iPhone library using the image upload widget in Tapatalk...easy peasy.

By the way - so great to see you Steve here in the wintertime. Got your ice pick ready? This will probably be a record storm over in LA.

PS - I see Ivanhater around too. Is this January or September??

Haha. Nice to see you as well. I was thinking about heading back to LA to hang with the dogs and kids but figured I’d have to pack for extra days since I wouldn’t be able to get back to my house in Pensacola until Thursday or Friday. I’ll probably make a final decision on MLK Day if it looks like they’re going to get all the fun in NOLA. I gotta run to the store later to grab some provisions and maybe a pair of gloves but otherwise I’m good.

[iorange55]

Hoping for at least one inch here in Austin. I’ll gladly take it! I just want to see some snow falling!

[bubba hotep]

This is starting to look like a historic event for someone down along I10. If I lived down there, I would be worried about a scenario like the 12z NAM with the warm nose hanging out farther inland than the other models are showing.

[Portastorm]

Hoping for at least one inch here in Austin. I’ll gladly take it! I just want to see some snow falling!

Based on current info I think we have a good chance of that happening.

[South Texas Storms]

Hoping for at least one inch here in Austin. I’ll gladly take it! I just want to see some snow falling!

Based on current info I think we have a good chance of that happening.

Agreed. I think College Station to Lufkin and then over into central LA could be the big winners for this event. Worried I'll see mostly sleet here in northwest Houston, but hopefully will see a burst of snow before the precip ends Tuesday afternoon.

[longhornweather]

Hoping for at least one inch here in Austin. I’ll gladly take it! I just want to see some snow falling!

Based on current info I think we have a good chance of that happening.

Still hoping for more than that from Austin up to Georgetown but we will see how these next runs look.

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Prolonged period of cold weather including hard freezes likely next week…cold weather advisory in effect for early Sunday.

Winter storm likely late Monday into late Tuesday

Significant travel disruption with near impossible travel on Tuesday

Cold front will move through the area this morning followed by increasingly colder conditions into Sunday and next week. Clearing skies will help to offset some of the post frontal cooling today followed by a more substantial drop in the temperatures tonight into Sunday. Freezing line will enter the area tonight and make it down toward the north and western sides of the metro area Sunday morning and when combined with gusty northerly winds of 15-25mph wind chills will fall into the 10’s and 20’s for much of the area. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the expected low wind chill values on Sunday morning.

More significant freeze is likely Monday AM with lows into the 20’s for much of the area and into the low 20’s north of HWY 105 with similar lows on Tuesday AM. Potentially the coldest night will be Wednesday morning with possible ice/snow cover and clearing skies resulting in maximum cooling conditions. Guidance continues to resolve this period a bit better with a trending down of low temperatures. Possible much of the area could fall into the upper 10’s with the beaches into the mid 20’s on Wednesday AM.

Other item to consider is the sub-freezing duration of temperatures. Much of the area looks to fall below freezing Monday early evening and not rise above freezing until Wednesday afternoon and even then it may only be a few degrees above freezing for a few hours. This results in sub-freezing duration of potentially 36-45 hours over much of the area and possibly longer.

Monday AM Forecasted Low Temperatures:

North of HWY 105: 22-26
North of I-10: 25-29
Houston metro (inside Beltway): 27-29
Coastal Counties: 28-30
Beaches/Galveston: 31-33

Tuesday AM Forecasted Low Temperatures:

North of HWY 105: 22-26
North of I-10: 26-30
Houston metro (inside Beltway): 27-29
Coastal Counties: 28-30
Beaches/Galveston: 30-32

Wednesday AM Forecasted Low Temperatures:

North of HWY 105: 17-20
North of I-10: 18-21
Houston metro (inside Beltway): 19-21
Coastal Counties: 19-24
Beaches/Galveston: 30-32

Maximum preparations and precautions for sub-freezing conditions for many hours should be completed this weekend. Failure to complete proper precautions may result in significant damage to vegetation and infrastructure.

Protect sensitive vegetation.
Protect any exposed outdoor pipes (sprinkler systems should be shut off and properly drained). Pipes in attics and along exterior walls of structures could freeze at these levels.
Prepare proper shelter and warmth for animals and livestock and make sure water sources are not frozen.
Persons should limit outside exposure to a minimum.

Winter Precipitation:
Once the cold air is in place on Monday an upper level trough will move across the state of Texas late Monday through the day on Tuesday. This feature will force a surface low along the lower Texas coast that will help to draw moisture northward into the cold air mass. Clouds will quickly increase from south to north Monday followed by the development of precipitation late Monday afternoon into the evening hours. The GFS model is slightly warmer at the surface and aloft compared to the ECMWF model resulting in more freezing rain/sleet on the GFS and more snow on the ECMWF. This system is starting to come into the range of our more reliable high resolution models and this should help with both P-type challenges and accumulations over the next 24 hours. Will favor a more snow profile along and north of I-10 with the potential for a mixture of freezing rain/sleet/snow south of I-10. Guidance continues to suggest the potential for mesoscale banding within the precipitation shield that can locally result in much higher totals of precipitation. This has occurred in recent snow events locally in 2004, 2008 and 2009.

Snow accumulations of 1-3 inches is possible along and north of I-10 with locally higher amounts under banding features…lower amounts south of I-10 to the coast with the probabilities of .10 or greater snow now 70-85% for much of the area. Probabilities for .01 or greater ice has increased some south of I-10 into the 35-50% range.

I will continue to caution that the start of this winter weather event is still 72 hours away and changes in the P-type and accumulations are almost certain over that period.

Impacts:
Given surface temperatures will be well below freezing while the precipitation is falling…significant travel impacts can be expected initially on elevated surface and eventually surface streets. Travel disruption late Monday into early Wednesday will be significant and at times potentially impossible over the area. Recovery of area roadways…especially elevated surfaces may be slow depending on the amount of accumulation…it is possible the area is still dealing with travel issues into Thursday morning.

Aviation will be heavily impacted with expected significant delays and cancellations Monday night into Tuesday night. De-icing of aircraft will be required and accumulations on runways is likely.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Has the cold air underperformed? In DFW we are forecast to get above freezing now every day for the foreseeable future, so it's more like a no big deal type of cold. Up into the mid 40s on Wednesday. The moderation seems pretty strong and quick.

[txtwister78]

A couple of things I've noticed with the GFS/CMC. One is a slow trend with each run of colder 850 temps nudging that sleet/snow transition line further south with time. Which means local forecast offices have a good handle factored in with areas along and north of I-10 probably seeing more snow than sleet.

The other is perhaps a bit longer duration (a few more hours) of precip than models had been showing earlier so that could impact accumulation amounts should that continue.

[Gotwood]

Has the cold air underperformed? In DFW we are forecast to get above freezing now every day for the foreseeable future, so it's more like a no big deal type of cold. Up into the mid 40s on Wednesday. The moderation seems pretty strong and quick.

They are forecasting sunny sky’s and no precipitation that equals temps getting above freezing. Texas winter man I have to move to a colder climate.

[Ralph's Weather]

Hoping for at least one inch here in Austin. I’ll gladly take it! I just want to see some snow falling!

Based on current info I think we have a good chance of that happening.

Agreed. I think College Station to Lufkin and then over into central LA could be the big winners for this event. Worried I'll see mostly sleet here in northwest Houston, but hopefully will see a burst of snow before the precip ends Tuesday afternoon.

Yep, I think you see what I see. That warm nose could be more significant than most models currently show.

[Stratton23]

May have to start watching thursday as well, the 12z CMC shows another digging trough with the cold air still in place, produxes light snow from houston southward, worth watching

[txwxwatcher]

A couple of things I've noticed with the GFS/CMC. One is a slow trend with each run of colder 850 temps nudging that sleet/snow transition line further south with time. Which means local forecast offices have a good handle factored in with areas along and north of I-10 probably seeing more snow than sleet.

The other is perhaps a bit longer duration (a few more hours) of precip than models had been showing earlier so that could impact accumulation amounts should that continue.

Noticed that too. ICON also trending with more snow southward into Houston in last run compared to previous. NWS holding firm with 3.4 inches of snow for my area of metro Houston on Tuesday.

[wxman22]

For us in NW Texas and Oklahoma I am keeping an eye on the setup starting next weekend around the 26th into the following week. Could be snow/ice storm for some areas depending on where the battle zone sets up. Still a long ways to go but something to watch.

[BTAYLOR5021]

DFW projected to finish January 52/31. Not bad

[PTrackerLA]

Currently 72 here with a winter storm watch for 5"-8" of snow. I've never even seen a "snow" survive a day here without melting and we could have a snowpack until Friday given the latest temperature trends. This doesn't seem real but I'm starting to let myself get excited!

[Lagreeneyes03]

Has the cold air underperformed? In DFW we are forecast to get above freezing now every day for the foreseeable future, so it's more like a no big deal type of cold. Up into the mid 40s on Wednesday. The moderation seems pretty strong and quick.

They are forecasting sunny sky’s and no precipitation that equals temps getting above freezing. Texas winter man I have to move to a colder climate.

Well I guess the good thing is we won't put any pressure on the grid up here really, bad thing is most of DFW is getting shafted again on winter weather. We just can't win

[BigB0882]

Currently 72 here with a winter storm watch for 5"-8" of snow. I've never even seen a "snow" survive a day here without melting and we could have a snowpack until Friday given the latest temperature trends. This doesn't seem real but I'm starting to let myself get excited!

I understand, exactly. I don’t want to get my hopes up but I’ve never seen anything like this with less than 3 days to go before the event. And it’s not just a dusting to an inch we are talking about. I sure hope it pans out. I’ll really feel better tomorrow night if things still look good.