Texas Winter 2013-2014

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I'm relieved to see your snowplows Houston are on standby!
http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/7199/lh2h.png

It looks like you folks are more prepared than New Orleans:

http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/9094/1a2c.png
Louisiana's Heavy Snow equipment.

Lord help you folks if you really do get an actual dumping!

Ha. We can do it. We can walk.

You can do that yes...you like cold and aren't afraid of falling! A number of others there however........

[iorange55]

I have to admit. A week or two ago, a friend asked me if winter had anymore "big" surprises left for us here in North Texas. I was feeling a little discouraged by all the dry weather and told him that there probably wouldn't be much.



He might not ever trust me again if this pans out.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

You could try this too:


Maybe not on your Bay however....oh and I'd suggest a dog team instead of the vehicle.

[ROCK]

I pretty much hug the Euro and in this case hard to bet against it. 3 runs is a pretty good indicator.

I extremely dislike the GFS and I ain't even from Europe....

[Portastorm]

I pretty much hug the Euro and in this case hard to bet against it. 3 runs is a pretty good indicator.

I extremely dislike the GFS and I ain't even from Europe....

ROCK, it's actually a lot more than that. I believe for 5 or 6 straight runs, the Euro has shown the same setup for late next week.

I got your Prius plugged into the wall outlet so it's re-charging and will be ready for your Southeast Texas Snow Chase!

[dhweather]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
308 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE RED FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY WILL END EARLY EVENING.
LOOK FOR A RETURN OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IN THE MIX AS WELL. DO NOT THINK VISIBILITIES WILL
DECREASE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY DENSE FOG PRODUCTS BECAUSE WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS. FRIDAY LOOKS PLENTY WARM WITH HIGHS NEAR
80 IN THE WEST RANGING TO UPPER 60S NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN TODAY...IN THE TEENS WITH SOME GUSTING INTO THE 20S.

SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OUT RELATIVELY WARM EVERYWHERE...BUT
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE ON SOUTHEAST TO PUSH THROUGH ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL STILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S SINCE THEY WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO THE
AFTERNOON OR LATER. WE HAVE INDICATED LOW POPS IN THE I35
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD DUE TO STRONG MOIST ADVECTION AS WELL AS
LIFT NEAR THE FRONT. QPF WILL REMAIN LOW.

A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER SRN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND IT
WILL PRODUCE SNOW IN OKLAHOMA...AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WE EXPECT A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN AS FAR
SOUTH AS A LINE FROM EASTLAND TO DENTON TO SHERMAN AND RAIN
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TX. ACCUMULATIONS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH
TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTHWEST...WITH TRACE AMOUNTS FATHER
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES
OUT QUICKLY AFTER 18Z AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

SHOULD THE GUIDANCE BECOME COLDER FOR FUTURE RUNS...THE
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL HAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
PERSONS LIVING ALONG AND NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS SINCE THE
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP LINE MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED NORTH OR
SOUTH BASED ON FUTURE TRENDS.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS COOL...WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES AS A SERIES
OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES BRINGS CONTINUED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

PAST THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A
STRONG SYSTEM PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD. PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWED THIS AS A WINTER
EVENT...BUT THE LATEST GFS HAS WARMED UP AND NOW FORECASTS RAIN.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO EVEN SAY WITH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJOR EVENT IS
DEVELOPING GIVEN HOW UNCERTAIN THE SOLUTIONS ARE AT THIS TIME. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND OF COURSE KEEP THE PUBLIC INFORMED
AS DEVELOPMENTS UNFOLD. 84

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I pretty much hug the Euro and in this case hard to bet against it. 3 runs is a pretty good indicator.

I extremely dislike the GFS and I ain't even from Europe....

ROCK, it's actually a lot more than that. I believe for 5 or 6 straight runs, the Euro has shown the same setup for late next week.

I got your Prius plugged into the wall outlet so it's re-charging and will be ready for your Southeast Texas Snow Chase!

http://tires.canadiantire.ca/en/tires/w ... -carving-/
Optimised tread block geometry for increased mechanical grip, to help with increased level of traction on snow and ice.
Continuous central rib for increased level of traction and tire rigidity for increased handling on slippery surfaces.
Optimised stud hole layout for improved stud retention and accoustic comfort for reduced risk of stud loss, and enhancing driving comfort.

[Ntxw]

http://tires.canadiantire.ca/en/tires/winter-tires/product/0087914P/pirelli-winter-carving-/
Optimised tread block geometry for increased mechanical grip, to help with increased level of traction on snow and ice.
Continuous central rib for increased level of traction and tire rigidity for increased handling on slippery surfaces.
Optimised stud hole layout for improved stud retention and accoustic comfort for reduced risk of stud loss, and enhancing driving comfort.

You should take a look at this Ms Screamer, we leave no prisoners. Just so you are aware, south central and western Canada's buffer is no longer there

http://www.britannica.com/blogs/2009/02/february-1899


"That cold arrived on February 10, blowing down from Canada on what meteorologists today call an Alberta Clipper wind. In Saskatchewan, the barometer hit a high-pressure record of 31.42 inches, while to the southwest in Logan, Montana, the thermometer dropped to a staggering –61. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, saw a record of –20 on the first day of the cold snap, but then warmed up a flicker, reaching –5 a few days later and not hitting zero for another week to come."

Better watch your heads, literally!

[orangeblood]

About time....18Z GFS starting to trend towards the Euro for late next week's storm. Looks much more reasonable with the Arctic High over central plains into midwest as system ejects out of northern Mexico

[Ntxw]

About time....18Z GFS starting to trend towards the Euro for late next week's storm. Looks much more reasonable with the Arctic High over central plains into midwest as system ejects out of northern Mexico

Yep, on to 0z! Models do not see it yet but there is a world of cold behind that final system. If you have been following the late ensembles and Euro you see the current -60s/-70s (Yakutsk) being drained into NA.

[BigB0882]

Will this cold make it to Louisiana or is that ridge coming back that stuck around in December and only put us on the edge of the cold? I never thought I would say this but I think I have had enough winter. Unless we can be promised a huge snow storm, I don't need any more frigid temps or ice.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

http://tires.canadiantire.ca/en/tires/winter-tires/product/0087914P/pirelli-winter-carving-/
Optimised tread block geometry for increased mechanical grip, to help with increased level of traction on snow and ice.
Continuous central rib for increased level of traction and tire rigidity for increased handling on slippery surfaces.
Optimised stud hole layout for improved stud retention and accoustic comfort for reduced risk of stud loss, and enhancing driving comfort.

You should take a look at this Ms Screamer, we leave no prisoners. Just so you are aware, south central and western Canada's buffer is no longer there

http://www.britannica.com/blogs/2009/02/february-1899


"That cold arrived on February 10, blowing down from Canada on what meteorologists today call an Alberta Clipper wind. In Saskatchewan, the barometer hit a high-pressure record of 31.42 inches, while to the southwest in Logan, Montana, the thermometer dropped to a staggering –61. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, saw a record of –20 on the first day of the cold snap, but then warmed up a flicker, reaching –5 a few days later and not hitting zero for another week to come."

Better watch your heads, literally!

do you really see that this time 'round?

Now I understand the temp reading below and the consequences of that but what exactly will that high-pressure reading do here (I'm guessing extreme cold). Still if it comes this province will be more prepared than anywhere else on this continent (our windchills often have hit that low) so we do have the clothes and heating for it.

That cold arrived on February 10, blowing down from Canada on what meteorologists today call an Alberta Clipper wind. In Saskatchewan, the barometer hit a high-pressure record of 31.42 inches, while to the southwest in Logan, Montana, the thermometer dropped to a staggering –61. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, saw a record of –20 on the first day of the cold snap, but then warmed up a flicker, reaching –5 a few days later and not hitting zero for another week to come.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Oh and my wish for extreme cold, while not well worded, was for Southern Ontario in the Canadian thread.

Just once I'd love for them to know what those temps are like (even if we have to go through them first).

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I'm guessing however that the extreme cold you are seeing is from a model that hasn't been right all winter.

[Ntxw]

do you really see that this time 'round?

Of course not! One doesn't predict the worst cold snap in NA history! It's a good read for the time of year . But you're relatively mild stretch the past few weeks is over, time to crank up those fans and blow them to Texas.

Will this cold make it to Louisiana or is that ridge coming back that stuck around in December and only put us on the edge of the cold? I never thought I would say this but I think I have had enough winter. Unless we can be promised a huge snow storm, I don't need any more frigid temps or ice.

It will be cold for you too but centered more over in Texas unlike January which was to your east.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

do you really see that this time 'round?

Of course not! One doesn't predict the worst cold snap in NA history! It's a good read for the time of year . But you're relatively mild stretch the past few weeks is over, time to crank up those fans and blow them to Texas.

Will this cold make it to Louisiana or is that ridge coming back that stuck around in December and only put us on the edge of the cold? I never thought I would say this but I think I have had enough winter. Unless we can be promised a huge snow storm, I don't need any more frigid temps or ice.

It will be cold for you too but centered more over in Texas unlike January which was to your east.

That we can and will do!

[Tireman4]

Here we go!!!!!!

[Ntxw]

While we await the 0z models lets have some fun with maps. Caution this is only for entertainment and study, does not reflect my view of he upcoming pattern or does it say it will. Just purely for curiosity. And the 99 is not 1999.







Lightning doesn't strike the same spot twice...or does it?

[South Texas Storms]

To back up my post earlier about the discord with GFS and various models about ejection. Here seems to lie some of the problem. The GFS is dueling two low pressure centers one in W Texas and one in coastal Texas. History shows a coastal trough will almost always dominate (and added to the fact 5h vorticity digs so far south). Eventually they do see the coastal win and head up the mid-MS valley. That lies the problem for me. It's just not handling cyclogenesis well. The mid-week system in theory should be much wetter for the state than what they currently show imo.

When ejecting out of the southern rockies the models often make the mistake of using the leading edge too strong when in fact incoming vorticity drives it even further south pushing it negative tilt. We've seen these "storms" keep going south in the closer range too many times in set ups like this, I bet this is another one of those cases. I believe the UKmet has the right idea keeping the Texas coastal trough dominant and not send moisture all the way up to Nebraska as far away from the front as possible...just weird.

So you think both the GFS and Euro are both significantly underestimating the potential rainfall amounts across central Texas? A few days ago both models were indicating that we could see around an inch of rain with the system early next week. Now both of the models are showing about .25 inch. I will be happy if I get over .50 inch from that storm.

[TheProfessor]

What is the 18Z gfs predicting for the second storm (for North Texas) How much snow?