Texas Winter 2010-2011

[txagwxman]

18z GFS really backing off...only .05" NW of Houston.

[Stormcenter]

I smell a very possible bust forecast compared to what was hyped yesterday and this morning for SE TX. and SW LA. IMO

[South Texas Storms]

All TAMU classes cancelled until 11:30am tomorrow.

[orangeblood]

I smell a very possible bust forecast compared to what was hyped yesterday and this morning for SE TX. and SW LA. IMO

In and around the Houston area, yes. But if College Station get 3-4 inches, that's a substantial amount for that area of the State.

[Hook'em Horns!]

Does is it look like there is more of a shift towards central and N. Tx?

[downsouthman1]

Does is it look like there is more of a shift towards central and N. Tx?

It's what I've been saying since yesterday. The track they had for the low was too far south.

[Texas Snowman]

Afternoon thoughts of KXII-TV met Steve LaNore concerning his forecast for the Sherman/Denison area.

In a nutshell, chance of light snow overnight and tomorrow, just a dusting in terms of accumulation. But a big ticket item perhaps middle of next week.

In his words:

A Dusting of Snow Possible Friday; Milder for the Weekend
3:45p.m. Wednesday 1 February 2011

A mid-level low is tracking our way from SW Texas and it will pass overhead Friday. Our Futurecast model and other weather models are consistent in showing a light dusting of snow for Texoma on Friday. We’re talking flurries with perhaps up to ½” on the high end of snow accumulation. This will be a very dry snow and it should not significantly worsen road conditions.

Clouds hung tough today as over-running around the mid-level low began a bit sooner than expected. It will remain overcast tonight and Friday, so serious melting of ice won’t begin until Saturday when temperatures rise above freezing. Westerly winds at the surface and aloft should allow for at least partial clearing on Saturday. Warming will be hindered somewhat by the extensive ice and snow cover, but low 40s should be do-able for most of Texoma then.

Sunday will also be in the 40s, perhaps 50s over southern areas before the next cold front sweeps through during the afternoon Sunday.

A significant winter weather event may develop by the middle of next week. A reinforcing surge of frigid air and a deep mid-level trough present another example of a potential ice or snow situation that bears watching for Wednesday.

[Ntxw]

Does is it look like there is more of a shift towards central and N. Tx?

It hasn't shifted. As said before, follow the upper level low. Currently it is forecasted to move from the Big Bend area into SE Oklahoma (pretty much the same track it was forecasted days ago). It will provide the extra lift for precip in the upper levels. However the lower levels up north is extremely dry. Incoming gulf moisture is working it's way north, where the two meet has always been the prime spot. It's taken awhile but it seems CLL region as of now looks hot.

[Tejas89]

It looks like NWS FTW believes things are migrating north, from those revised advisory totals.

[newtotex]

Is next week looking more like and ice or snow event? Or is it too early to tell? BTW I never thought I would miss not going to school this much..im bored!

[PTrackerLA]

18z GFS really backing off...only .05" NW of Houston.

To be honest, I never saw the models that gung ho on the QPF in the Houston area to being with (GFS and NAM). They have consistently shown much more for Louisiana, but warmer temps of course. Looking at the radar now, I would have thought we would have alot more coverage and more coming in from the gulf, but it's just not there. Maybe this whole system will be alot drier for everyone?

[iorange55]

Is next week looking more like and ice or snow event? Or is it too early to tell? BTW I never thought I would miss not going to school this much..im bored!

Too early to tell. I think if it hits us it would be snow, though.


Also I've noticed the further south you go into Texas the more impatient you get, lol. It hasn't even started!

[southerngale]

Beaumont (rain) 32F...

BPT now reporting unknown precip

There has been a widespread rain and sleet mix in Beaumont for a while now, though. Unfortunately, the official Beaumont weather (BPT) that goes out everywhere isn't even in Beaumont, but south of Beaumont, in Nederland, very close to Port Arthur. It's very annoying and we use local obs and weather stations for more accurate weather near where we are.


Anyway, this was posted on FB by Greg Bostwick, chief meteorologist at KFDM:

Greg Bostwick
Widespread rain and sleet developing over our area with some ice forming on exposed surfaces. Should worsen overnight.
33 minutes ago

[newtotex]

Well as bad as this is I gota admit being out of school for the week is definently relaxing. The last time I got out of school that long was because of a hurricane and I have to admit this is more enjoyable....not having power when it's 90+ degrees outside blows! Hah.

[iorange55]

Tidbit out of FW NWS discussion

ONE CONCERN REGARDING NEWEST MODEL DATA ARRIVING...LATEST RUN OF
THE NAM AND SOME SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW DEVELOPING AN AREA
OF LIFT CLOSE TO A DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH SETS UP JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN
EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THESE SOLUTIONS NOW INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW OVER A LARGER AREA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF
ADVISORIES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

[Air Force Met]

Does is it look like there is more of a shift towards central and N. Tx?

It hasn't shifted. As said before, follow the upper level low. Currently it is forecasted to move from the Big Bend area into SE Oklahoma (pretty much the same track it was forecasted days ago). It will provide the extra lift for precip in the upper levels. However the lower levels up north is extremely dry. Incoming gulf moisture is working it's way north, where the two meet has always been the prime spot. It's taken awhile but it seems CLL region as of now looks hot.

Agreed. The change hasn't been the track of the low. If you go back and look to the 00Z WED chart...the low is pretty much in the same place at 18Z tomorrow. What has changed is the moisture availability. The dry air is too much to overcome over SE TX. You can see it in the ceilings.

As a rule of thumb...you expect heavy snow left of the track of the 500mb vort center. How far left depends on the strength of the vort max. However, if you have no moisture...then you won't get it. The dynamics were always ripe for the N/Cntl TX area to get snow...but now there is moisture to work with.

I smell a bust as well in the SE TX area. I've been feeling less and less confident about it since I reviewed my forecast rules yesterday...and really took a hard look at the dry air.

Another thing of note: We are still getting dry air advection in the lower levels here. If precip doesn't begin and CONTINUE...then the atmosphere loses its battle to moisten up...which is what needs to happen for snow. Looking at the VV's at 850 and even at 500...gonna be a tough road to hoe.

One last comment: There has been talk of mesobands...etc. I think we can officially put that talk away. The dry slot that is coming in, starting midnight, at 500mb will essentially kill any hope of mesobands. You cannot produce mesobands with a dry layer from 500 MB and above.

[Portastorm]

I believe that I now see Lucy starting to pull the football away from the ground as I approach it to kick it. Portastorm won't be posting in the next 24 hours unless he has snow pix to share with everyone.

PWC out until later.

[iorange55]

I believe that I now see Lucy starting to pull the football away from the ground as I approach it to kick it. Portastorm won't be posting in the next 24 hours unless he has snow pix to share with everyone.

PWC out until later.

If it's worth anything I still think the Austin area has a good shot of seeing snow.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

well im very anxious for this evening but i need to take my mind off of it. Its gonna happen when the ULL comes closer. It just will, anyways, im going to play some Call of Duty to relieve this stress! Still very confident we will have a significant event, just reading all these posts and watching every frame of radars is wearing on me.

Be back later

[southerngale]

Well, AFM's update is quite depressing. Thanks for keeping it real, though.

NWS offices still holding strong. However, it looks like ice might be the big issue here.