Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Snowman67]

00Z Euro has 2-4" of snow for SE TX next Thursday.

Wxman - What's your take on this? I know it's still a ways out, but are you seeing signs of this being probable for SE Texas at this time?

[stormlover2013]

Looks like we know there will be moisture, all about timing and if cold air is in place

[wxman57]

My take on this is that snow will fall somewhere between the TX coast and Oklahoma next Thursday. While it would be interesting to see 2-4" of snow across SE TX (vs. freezing rain and sleet with a few microscopic partially-formed snowflakes), for now I just think it's interesting. The models will arrive at a more likely solution by next Tuesday or Wednesday. One thing you can count on between now and then is that the snow axis will change.

[srainhoutx]

The warmer weather is welcomed after a week and a half of Wintry Weather events and much below normal temperatures as well as an extended dry NW flow aloft, but major changes are lurking.

The first in a series of Pacific storms will march beneath the developing Gulf of Alaska Ridge and provide some welcomed relief to drought parched Northern and Central California before trekking E across the Plains and dropping a verity of Wintry weather across the Central and Southern Plains, with liquid rain further S in the warm sector. A weak shallow frontal boundary will drop S and pull up stationary on Sunday along the Coast where a Coastal trough/low will develop. There is a chance of some rumbles of thunder as elevated storms along with over running rains develop Sunday night into Monday. A stronger upper air disturbance enters the picture across Southern California on Monday and begins to trek E in a very progressive flow. This feature may offer a bit more in storm chances over Louisiana and Southern Arkansas. A much stronger Winter Storm will cross the Southern Plains with this disturbance dropping additional snow across the Plains. In the wake of this storm system, much colder Arctic air will plunge S into Texas setting the stage for a potential later next week Winter Storm that will have its origin in the Arctic ~vs~ the Pacific. The upper air disturbance associated with the late next week wintry mischief potential appears to drop S from Siberia and cross Western Canada into the Great Basin. The various Global guidance have differing solutions, but the Euro has been extremely stable for the past 4-5 cycles suggesting a progressive flow and wintry mischief will develop across Central and SE Texas into SW Louisiana. The GFS and Canadian are suggesting a much slower ejection of this feature from Southern California/NW Mexico. The progressive flow has credence ~vs~ a slower moving system, but being a week out, we will need to monitor the trends over the next several days. All in all the Trough in the West and cold air building across our source Regions of Eastern Alaska/Western Canada raise an eyebrow. With the increasing moisture across the West into the Central/Southern Plains in the form of snow tends to favor much less in the way of air mass modification and certainly warrants attention in the day ahead. As always, we will see.

[Snowman67]

My take on this is that snow will fall somewhere between the TX coast and Oklahoma next Thursday. While it would be interesting to see 2-4" of snow across SE TX (vs. freezing rain and sleet with a few microscopic partially-formed snowflakes), for now I just think it's interesting. The models will arrive at a more likely solution by next Tuesday or Wednesday. One thing you can count on between now and then is that the snow axis will change.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/eurosnow6.gif

As always, thanks for your perspective. It will be interesting to see if and when the GFS and Euro start to sync.

[HockeyTx82]

Not sure if this means anything, but this morning my car was covered with dew and my ride up to Denton there was dew and moisture on the grass and some streets it appeared. Can't remember the last time it was actually wet, let alone not frozen.

just my $.10

[dhweather]

My take on this is that snow will fall somewhere between the TX coast and Oklahoma next Thursday. While it would be interesting to see 2-4" of snow across SE TX (vs. freezing rain and sleet with a few microscopic partially-formed snowflakes), for now I just think it's interesting. The models will arrive at a more likely solution by next Tuesday or Wednesday. One thing you can count on between now and then is that the snow axis will change.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/eurosnow6.gif

Multiple times at that.

[ROCK]

Don't we just love the Euro.... that's like many runs in a row with little variation....

[TheProfessor]

My take on this is that snow will fall somewhere between the TX coast and Oklahoma next Thursday. While it would be interesting to see 2-4" of snow across SE TX (vs. freezing rain and sleet with a few microscopic partially-formed snowflakes), for now I just think it's interesting. The models will arrive at a more likely solution by next Tuesday or Wednesday. One thing you can count on between now and then is that the snow axis will change.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/eurosnow6.gif

Multiple times at that.

I sure hope those snow totals increase another 6-8 inches. But NWS FWD has changed my point forecast to sleet Sunday afternoon.

[wxman57]

My take on this is that snow will fall somewhere between the TX coast and Oklahoma next Thursday. While it would be interesting to see 2-4" of snow across SE TX (vs. freezing rain and sleet with a few microscopic partially-formed snowflakes), for now I just think it's interesting. The models will arrive at a more likely solution by next Tuesday or Wednesday. One thing you can count on between now and then is that the snow axis will change.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/eurosnow6.gif

Multiple times at that.

I sure hope those snow totals increase another 6-8 inches. But NWS FWD has changed my point forecast to sleet Sunday afternoon.

Note that the map I posted is for next Thursday/Friday, not this weekend.

[Stormcenter]

Will that type of frozen weather include any of southern Louisiana? My brother wanted me ask.

My take on this is that snow will fall somewhere between the TX coast and Oklahoma next Thursday. While it would be interesting to see 2-4" of snow across SE TX (vs. freezing rain and sleet with a few microscopic partially-formed snowflakes), for now I just think it's interesting. The models will arrive at a more likely solution by next Tuesday or Wednesday. One thing you can count on between now and then is that the snow axis will change.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/eurosnow6.gif

[ndale]

Don't we just love the Euro.... that's like many runs in a row with little variation....

Looks like the heavier precip moved a little east leaving us in central Tx with less moisture. I know it will change.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville early morning discussion regarding late next week.

THE NEXT FRONT TAKES AIM ON THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT GFS/ECMWF
AGREEMENT ON FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PART OF A STRONGER AND
LONGER LASTING PUSH OF NORTH WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL
PUSH AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
WIND SPEEDS STAY UP OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS COASTAL TROUGHING FORMS
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWS 850MB OVERRUNNING AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AND GETS 850MB WINDS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE
THE SURFACE REMAINS LOCKED IN NORTHEASTERLIES AMID COASTAL
TROUGHING. CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
TRANSIENT BUT IF THEY HOLD UP COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY
PATTERN FOR THE REGION FOR A FEW DAYS.

[Tireman4]

This is going to be an interesting set up. Lots of anxious day coming up as models flip flop and change. I informed my president and dean that we "might" (big might) have more wintery mischief to deal with next Friday. I gave the two a heads up last Wednesday. A bear watch indeed.

[Portastorm]

Props this morning to wxman57 and srainhoutx for their analyses, putting next week into some perspective.

I know one thing -- this guarantees we'll be adding a lot more pages to this thread!

[PTrackerLA]

Let's expand that swath a little more to the right and I'm totally good with that forecast! This is just crazy that there's even hint at our 3rd winter weather event in just 2 weeks only 6 days away. One thing I do notice is temps look very marginal in the southern areas of snow on the Euro but maybe that is for the better. The last "real" and significant snow around here was December 2008 when temps hovered at 32-33 for the entire event. I was getting sleet mixed with freezing rain at 25 degrees on Tuesday...that's just insane!

THINK SNOW

[Tireman4]

Props this morning to wxman57 and srainhoutx for their analyses, putting next week into some perspective.

I know one thing -- this guarantees we'll be adding a lot more pages to this thread!

\


When those two latch onto this scenario, this early...a BIG bear watch is needed. Stay tuned.

[dhweather]

"There's a lot of fight left in this winter dog" - Joe B


But he thinks things change in March.

[WacoWx]

Agree^^

To me, his statement below is the most concerning reply on this entire thread:

If you have access to weatherbell you should check out Bastardi's latest blog video. While I don't like his bias to the east sometimes he lays it down very well what is coming. "Dallas to DC" glacier when all said and done is a good way to put it.

Yeah, I saw it. He's a big cold-mongerer like my co-worker, but I'm not so sure he's wrong...

[dhweather]

FWD NWS says:



and from the AFD

A COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PACE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WINTER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD
OF NORTH TEXAS WITHIN THE COLDEST AIR. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX. THE ECMWF IS THE COLDEST
MODEL WITH THE NAM BEING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER...AND THE GFS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS DETERMINED BY
TAKING A MODEL BLEND OF TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS THE
AREA....AND WE HAVE INCLUDED SNOW AS PRIMARY PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN-MOST LOCALES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE ENTIRE COLUMN
COOLS BELOW FREEZING BENEATH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. AS USUAL WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...AND ADJUST THE
LINE DIVIDING LIQUID/FROZEN PRECIP IF NECESSARY. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM...WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR SNOW EXPECTED. THIS COULD STILL HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON TRAVEL FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SO TRAVELERS HEADING THAT
DIRECTION ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS.

A SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE WEST COAST INTO WEST TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WITH
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AREA-WIDE WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ON TUESDAY. PWATS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 1 INCH WHICH
SHOULD KEEP QPF TOTALS FAIRLY MODEST. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY STILL
EXCEED HALF AN INCH IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR
WILL OCCUR AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE LOOK AHEAD TO THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND
INDICATES A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE GFS
FAVORS MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO LEAN HEAVILY ON ONE SOLUTION OPPOSED TO
ANOTHER...BUT WE SHOULD GET A BETTER IDEA OF THE SITUATION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MODEL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.