Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Tireman4]

This is wide open...like Wxman 57 in Vegas playing the slots!

[gatorcane]

So the ECMWF looks to have gone closer to the GFS solution in the long-range which is calling for a major pattern change (finally) across the United States come beginning of the New Year. The prior ECMWF showed a trough out in the NW United States with zonal flow across the rest of the country and ridging over the SE United States. Plenty of cold air behind this powerful trough if it verifies. Note GFS is more progressive with the pattern.

ECMWF:


GFS

[wxman57]

That's fine - pattern change in January. I'll win our year-long office forecast contest then you can all have your winter. I didn't plan on escaping this winter without plenty of misery, anyway.

I do need to find a home for my avatar. Since Comcast stopped offering web space I can't post any images here.

[Tireman4]

A shovel for Christmas...to shovel all the ice and snow in Houston...in Jauary to February..Wxman57?

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS continues trending SE with the upper low. Snow line down to Midland to Wichita Falls.

[Ntxw]

18Z GFS continues trending SE with the upper low. Snow line down to Midland to Wichita Falls.

Forecasting nightmares these bowling ball ULL's. One thing is for sure, areas in the panhandle could be measuring 1-2 feet of sneaux

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS continues trending SE with the upper low. Snow line down to Midland to Wichita Falls.

Forecasting nightmare's these bowling ball ULL's. One thing is for sure, areas in the panhandle could be measuring 1-2 feet of sneaux

I am rooting for the GEM as that is the one that follows a typical path and also would give us the best shot at snow.

Good luck to anyone trying to drive to NM or CO early next week.

[Ntxw]

I am rooting for the GEM as that is the one that follows a typical path and also would give us the best shot at snow.

Good luck to anyone trying to drive to NM or CO early next week.

Snow and single digits to below zero in the panhandle, heavy rain and severe weather in far east/se Texas. Mild warmth and 60s down in south Texas, the state has it all. Quite possible high's early next week here might not get much out of the 30s with snowcover nearby and some CAA.

Also the CMC path is similar to the christmas eve 09 blizzard direction. I have vivid memories of the 500mb maps from this storm. For days the models kept hammering the panhandle and northern Oklahoma/Kansas but it kept digging and digging before it made the turn in N-C Texas.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS continues to show an intrusion of cold air and below normal temps for Texas end of month, diving south on this run...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Del Rio to Texarkana track....

If 18z GFS holds, Monday won't get anywhere close to its forecasted High Temp.

[Ralph's Weather]

Also the CMC path is similar to the christmas eve 09 blizzard direction. I have vivid memories of the 500mb maps from this storm. For days the models kept hammering the panhandle and northern Oklahoma/Kansas but it kept digging and digging before it made the turn in N-C Texas.

I remember that one, we did not get anything in E TX, but had family from Decatur in town who had to drive back in it then we drove up to NM on the 26th when the roads were still very bad between Decatur and WF. I went all of that week seeing snow on the ground from that storm then the mountains then before we headed home another storm refreshed the snow all the way back to Dallas. The one I really want a repeat of was the one later in the season where my house got 8"+ and I got very little in College Station.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

And for that matter, the 18z GFS doesn't have Northern Houston burbs getting out of the 30s/40s until Friday of Next week, and we never see 60.

Bring it on!

[Ntxw]

I remember that one, we did not get anything in E TX, but had family from Decatur in town who had to drive back in it then we drove up to NM on the 26th when the roads were still very bad between Decatur and WF. I went all of that week seeing snow on the ground from that storm then the mountains then before we headed home another storm refreshed the snow all the way back to Dallas. The one I really want a repeat of was the one later in the season where my house got 8"+ and I got very little in College Station.

Snowmaggedon . We talk of the foot in Dallas for that a lot but many areas of east Texas and northern Louisiana saw record breaking snows too in the 6-10" range yeah.



1040+ HP to the north of the storm is quite impressive especially when contrasting with the surface low of 1000mb or less crossing the state early next week. Winds will be howling behind the front. True blizzard in the snow sector. NWS across W TX and Panhandle, and W Oklahoma will probably issue blizzard watches later this week

[JayDT]

I am rooting for the GEM as that is the one that follows a typical path and also would give us the best shot at snow.

Good luck to anyone trying to drive to NM or CO early next week.

Snow and single digits to below zero in the panhandle, heavy rain and severe weather in far east/se Texas. Mild warmth and 60s down in south Texas, the state has it all. Quite possible high's early next week here might not get much out of the 30s with snowcover nearby and some CAA.

Also the CMC path is similar to the christmas eve 09 blizzard direction. I have vivid memories of the 500mb maps from this storm. For days the models kept hammering the panhandle and northern Oklahoma/Kansas but it kept digging and digging before it made the turn in N-C Texas.

Im really hoping that is the case this time again. That the storm will just keep digging & then head straight for us in DFW! I remember the 09 Christmas Eve storm like it was yesterday. I remember not even paying attention to the weather for a few days. Then the night before Christmas Eve i remember turning on the TV to see the weather forecast, and i saw that they were saying that it was looking like there was a pretty good chance of Snow. I was beyond ecstatic, I even scared my parents and my sister. Im really hoping for snow here this weekend.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Just spoke to my wife... I'm leaning towards chasing the NW quadrant of this low. Just need to book hotels on Saturday/Sunday.

[gpsnowman]

We all do JayDT, well most of us anyway. That 09 storm is one of my favorite Christmas memories. I remember assembling my daughters kitchen set in the bedroom with the blinds open just watching the wind and snow. It was awesome. Took me a lot longer than it should have to put it together. Waking up Christmas morning with the snow on the ground and seeing my then two year old daughter excited was something to behold.

[gpsnowman]

Just spoke to my wife... I'm leaning towards chasing the NW quadrant of this low. Just need to book hotels on Saturday/Sunday.

That is great. I wish I could get away with that. I work in hotels and could get serious discounts this time of year. One time in the future maybe. If I left for a couple days just to see some snow my wife would strangle me before I packed a suitcase. She does love the fact I am a weather nerd. I am very glad about that.

[Ntxw]

If you are curious here is the 500mb map on Christmas Eve morning 2009



If the turn NE and North is delayed, then we are in a similar situation track wise as was the case vs guidance back then and the Axis of heavy snow is Abilene-OKC vs Lubbock-AMA

[gpsnowman]

I am curious without looking myself, what were the temperatures, say a week before the 09 storm? They could not have been as warm as they are now.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: I am curious without looking myself, what were the temperatures, say a week before the storm? They could not have been as warm as they are now.

DFW was 75 the day before, and much of the week leading up to Christmas was in mid 60s. However freezes were more common that month vs the 1 this month.

I am not supportive of the idea of warmth before snow actually effects if it snows or not. The atmosphere is fluid and moving, cold is coming from ULL as well as HP dome. It does effect how much snow has to fall before you overcome the ground warmth. Once it's in the 20s it could be 80s before and it will still stick