Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

Wxman57:

"Major changes in the location of and timing of any winter precip across Texas. The band of heavier snow may change by hundreds of miles by next week. GFS is trending closer to the Euro but it doesn't likely have the right solution yet."

Wednesday 12Z models will zero in completely for you?

I'm thinking maybe by 12Z Tuesday we'll have fair agreement between the GFS and Euro. Could be Wednesday. And even then there will be uncertainty about exact locations and amounts.

[Portastorm]

Wxman57:

"Major changes in the location of and timing of any winter precip across Texas. The band of heavier snow may change by hundreds of miles by next week. GFS is trending closer to the Euro but it doesn't likely have the right solution yet."

Wednesday 12Z models will zero in completely for you?

I'm thinking maybe by 12Z Tuesday we'll have fair agreement between the GFS and Euro. Could be Wednesday. And even then there will be uncertainty about exact locations and amounts.

I'm seeing 60s and 70s next weekend for much of Texas, including the Houston area. Should be great bike riding weather!

[Tireman4]

Wxman57:

"Major changes in the location of and timing of any winter precip across Texas. The band of heavier snow may change by hundreds of miles by next week. GFS is trending closer to the Euro but it doesn't likely have the right solution yet."

Wednesday 12Z models will zero in completely for you?

I'm thinking maybe by 12Z Tuesday we'll have fair agreement between the GFS and Euro. Could be Wednesday. And even then there will be uncertainty about exact locations and amounts.

I'm seeing 60s and 70s next weekend for much of Texas, including the Houston area. Should be great bike riding weather!

Not so sure Porta. Still too cold for him. He may need a portable heater for his bike..

[wxman57]

I'm seeing 60s and 70s next weekend for much of Texas, including the Houston area. Should be great bike riding weather!

If the 00Z Euro is right then there will be snow on the ground here next weekend. I should be able to get through it on my mountain bike, though.

PS: Just looked at the 12Z GFS meteogram for Houston and it has rain with a high in the mid 40s next Saturday.

[Red Raider fan]

What does it look like for us in south Texas for next week?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If the 00Z Euro is right then there will be snow on the ground here next weekend. I should be able to get through it on my mountain bike, though.

"You serious Clark?"

[dhweather]

Wxman57:

"Major changes in the location of and timing of any winter precip across Texas. The band of heavier snow may change by hundreds of miles by next week. GFS is trending closer to the Euro but it doesn't likely have the right solution yet."

Wednesday 12Z models will zero in completely for you?

I'm thinking maybe by 12Z Tuesday we'll have fair agreement between the GFS and Euro. Could be Wednesday. And even then there will be uncertainty about exact locations and amounts.

I'm seeing 60s and 70s next weekend for much of Texas, including the Houston area. Should be great bike riding weather!

Yeah, but be careful, the 2684 hour GFS has a Cat 5 in the gulf!

[Portastorm]

You know dhweather, you better stick around for tropical season and be active on the tropical weather thread here... because when the long-range GFS (or more likely the Canadian) starts spinning up Cat 5's in the Gulf at long range, I'm gonna point at you!

[Ntxw]

Euro is still 1-2 for DFW area Sunday, 2-3 west and n/nw

[dhweather]

:uarrow:

You know dhweather, you better stick around for tropical season and be active on the tropical weather thread here... because when the long-range GFS (or more likely the Canadian) starts spinning up Cat 5's in the Gulf at long range, I'm gonna point at you!

I'm gonna try! There just wasn't much to get excited about last year. 2004 and 2005 spoiled me.

[DougNTexas]

How about Tyler/Longview? We have missed it all. Nothibg but cold here. Snow to the west, snow to our South, and snow to our east. When is it going to be our time?

[gboudx]

I'm gonna try! There just wasn't much to get excited about last year. 2004 and 2005 spoiled me.

Personally I really enjoyed last season. But for me, a great tropical season is one that doesn't impact land, kill people and cause major life disruptions. Katrina and Rita were enough.

[dhweather]

How about Tyler/Longview? We have missed it all. Nothibg but cold here. Snow to the west, snow to our South, and snow to our east. When is it going to be our time?

Maybe next weekend? That's 7+ days out though, so don't count on it just yet.

[Red Raider fan]

Any snow for the san antonio schertz area next weekend?

[wxman22]

Is the Euro perhaps struggling with the shallowness of cold air next week?, It has a 1050 mb high coming down the plains, but yet the freezing line never gets pass the I-20 corridor seems fishy...

[Red Raider fan]

Where can i look at that temp. and precip chart at for our area?

[HouTXmetro]

How far in advance did the models sniff out Winter Weather for SETX the last 2 events? Was there any type of consensus a week out that we would see something? Who performed the best 5/6 days out?

[srainhoutx]

How far in advance did the models sniff out Winter Weather for SETX the last 2 events? Was there any type of consensus a week out that we would see something? Who performed the best 5/6 days out?

The Globals (Euro/GFS/CMC) sniffed out the event of a week ago (last Friday) about a week out. The events of Tuesday were not handled well by the Global models even 12 hours out. If we look back to last November, the signals were trending toward a Winter Storm across N Texas about a week and but missed the freezing rain/sleet and even snow that fell across the Hill Country and even down to Victoria and then as the upper low passed, the snow that fell from Huntsville on E into Louisiana was not modeled at all.

[orangeblood]

How far in advance did the models sniff out Winter Weather for SETX the last 2 events? Was there any type of consensus a week out that we would see something? Who performed the best 5/6 days out?

It has been discussed several times on here that, for this winter, the GFS seems to outperform all other models in the 5-6 day range. I've noticed the Euro is usually the 1st to recognize the long range pattern, then hands it off to the GFS which appears to be better at handling both the temp profiles and QPF. But to be honest, the Euro has been handling both long and short range better over the past 7-10 days. So in other words, who the heck knows!!! hahaha

[gboudx]

Steve McCauley posted this image for the Sunday system.