Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Browndog]

https://imageshack.com/i/p3H6rxFsj

[iorange55]

https://imageshack.com/i/f0ApNmvEj

Nice! Looks similar to the 2010 event we had here. Make sure you take full advantage of it! Build a snowman, hit some strangers with a snowball, etc.

[wxman57]

GFS is the outlier for now...

ECMWF, too, as it has warming temps (to 32+ by noon Saturday). A trace of precip on Friday and Saturday, heavier precip (rain) Sunday. Certainly nothing of interest in the 12Z Euro.

Not much to produce precip across most of Texas on Friday.

[Shoshana]

:uarrow: imo yes the balconies escarpment plays a huge role in temps. Greatest example was the NYE cold front/system.

Thanks! I did notice that our temps at the house aren't usually the same as Mabry or ABIA

[orangeblood]

Wow! Looking at the pics from Browndog, the RGEM did an outstanding job with this event and of note, was the outlier. A model that should be taken more seriously moving forward, IMO. The NAM & GFS continues its garbage in garbage out, but at least its consistent!

[Texas Snowman]

Wow! Looking at the pics from Browndog, the RGEM did an outstanding job with this event and of note, was the outlier. A model that should be taken more seriously moving forward, IMO. The NAM & GFS continues its garbage in garbage out, but at least its consistent!

Yeah, that's some great looking snowfall Browndog! Enjoy, what a great snow for Longview. I'm sure it's a really beautiful winter wonderland with all of those tall trees over there in deep East Texas. Awesome!

Orangeblood, my take on the models after recent weeks - they're a mess.

[dl20415]

Snowing heavy in Winona, Miss. Just started and roads are already covered

[dl20415]

Large flakes

[Brent]

https://imageshack.com/i/f0ApNmvEj

Nice.

[Brent]

The little warm nose that messed up our grand plans.......

This has been the winter of warm noses hasnt it

[Portastorm]

GFS is the outlier for now...

ECMWF, too, as it has warming temps (to 32+ by noon Saturday). A trace of precip on Friday and Saturday, heavier precip (rain) Sunday. Certainly nothing of interest in the 12Z Euro.

Not much to produce precip across most of Texas on Friday.

What are your thoughts on the SREF and RGEM? Do you use them? How do pro mets view these models in terms of reliability and accuracy? Just curious as a lot of us have been using them as of late.

[TarrantWx]

RGEM and NAM picking up on some light snow in N TX tomorrow morning. NAM is showing more snow on Friday (beyond the range of the RGEM) transitioning to sleet on Saturday and continuing through the end of it's run (albeit light). It's showing some rather impressive snow totals at the end of its run. Outside of east Texas those totals do not include anything from this morning's storm. Maybe we can redeem ourselves in DFW?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=600

According to the NAM it looks like Austin could get in on some of the snow (but more likely sleet) Friday evening into Saturday as well.

[SouthernMet]

Yeah TarrantWx I think me and you are the only ones seeing that due to the lack of chatter here, i bet there will be some surprised north texans. Nothing significant but 5+ models are showing it atm. And it looks like models want to push the cf through north & central tx tomorrow afternoon.

[TarrantWx]

Yeah TarrantWx I think me and you are the only ones seeing that due to the lack of chatter here, i bet there will be some surprised north texans. Nothing significant but 5+ models are showing it atm. And it looks like models want to push the cf through north & central tx tomorrow afternoon.

NAM is also showing DFW going below freezing tomorrow evening and staying below freezing through at least Saturday afternoon. It looks like we might not get out of the 20's on Friday.

[SouthernMet]

said that earlier

18z nam does appear to lose the energy from nw texas tomorrow though.

[iorange55]

Yeah TarrantWx I think me and you are the only ones seeing that due to the lack of chatter here, i bet there will be some surprised north texans. Nothing significant but 5+ models are showing it atm. And it looks like models want to push the cf through north & central tx tomorrow afternoon.

I don't believe anything anymore. I had cereal this morning with 2% milk, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was actually whole milk with the wrong labeling.

Meanwhile, it actually feels a little warm outside compared to the past few days. The sun is out, I can walk outside without a jacket on. That will change soon though.

[SouthernMet]

[TarrantWx]

:uarrow: said that earlier

18z nam does appear to lose the energy from nw texas tomorrow though.

I just noticed that the most recently issued zone forecast from FWD includes a slight chance of snow in the forecast for tomorrow now. Will be interesting to see what the 18z RGEM shows.

TXZ118-252230-
TARRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON
217 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TODAY
SUNNY. TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE MID 40S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
TONIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO
15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS 18 TO
23 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ON GRASS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. WIND CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS 15 TO 20.
THURSDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
WIND CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS 12 TO 17.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. WIND CHILL
READINGS AS LOW AS 10 TO 15.
FRIDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN
THE MID 20S.
SATURDAY
CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

[utweather]

Yeah TarrantWx I think me and you are the only ones seeing that due to the lack of chatter here, i bet there will be some surprised north texans. Nothing significant but 5+ models are showing it atm. And it looks like models want to push the cf through north & central tx tomorrow afternoon.

I don't believe anything anymore. I had cereal this morning with 2% milk, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was actually whole milk with the wrong labeling.

lol, omg, that is hilarious.
Yeah I was watching the enhanced water vapor loop on Sunday night and I was like hmmm, I don't see a disturbance or enough moisture and sure enough all we got the next day was sprinkles at best. I wasn't paying attention to last nights models but I would have thought with the upper low moving overhead the temps would have been cold enough for snow with y'all up there. Now you now how it is down here in Austin all the time..(too warm)

[Brent]